Robustness of Meteorological Droughts in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations

We examine the robustness of a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating meteorological droughts and associated metrics in present‐day climate (1971‐2003) over the conterminous United States (U.S.). The RCMs that are part of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations are compared with multiple observations over the climatologically homogeneous regions of the U.S. The seasonal precipitation, climatology, drought attributes, and trends have been assessed. The reanalysis‐based multi‐model median RCM reasonably simulates observed statistical attributes of drought and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. However, models fail to simulate significant drying trend over the Southwest and West. Further, reanalysis‐based NARCCAP runs underestimate the observed drought frequency overall, with the exception of the Southwest; whereas they underestimate persistence in the drought‐affected areas over the Southwest and West‐North Central regions. However, global climate model‐driven NARCCAP ensembles tend to overestimate regional drought frequencies. Models exhibit considerable uncertainties while reproducing meteorological drought statistics, as evidenced by a general lack of agreement in the Hurst exponent, which in turn controls drought persistence. Water resources managers need to be aware of the limitations of current climate models, while regional climate modelers may want to fine‐tune their parameters to address impact‐relevant metrics.     

长江经济带新型城镇化协调性的空间差异与时空演化

从城乡、产城、区域和城镇化与资源环境协调发展4个方面建立指标体系,衡量长江经济带105个地级及以上市新型城镇化的协调性,并运用泰尔系数和探索性空间分析考察协调性的空间差异和时空演化,结果发现:长江经济带新型城镇化协调性存在明显的反地势分布和"城市圈俱乐部"特征;东、中、西部城镇化协调性差异随时间越来越明显,东部城市主要体现在非省会城市之间的差异,中部主要体现在省会城市与非省会城市的组间差异,西部主要体现在省会城市之间以及省会城市和非省会城市之间的组间差异;长江经济带新型城镇化协调性表现出正的全局空间自相关,协调性高的区域开始集聚在一起,这种趋势随时间不断增强并且空间溢出效应明显。     

南方丘陵地区河谷城市用地时空演变与驱动分析——以上饶市城区为例

以揭示中国南方丘陵地区河谷城市的空间演变过程和特征为目的,以上饶市城区为例,在遥感与GIS技术的支持下,对1988~2013年间上饶市城区城市用地的时空演变过程、特征及驱动影响因素进行了研究。结果表明,1988~2013年的25 a间,上饶市城区城市用地呈现出快速增长的态势,城市形态的演变具有明显的时空特征:时间序列上,不论扩展幅度还是扩展速度,2001~2013年间的值均高于1988~2001年间的值,前后两个时段的扩展特征呈现出明显的差异性;空间格局上,上饶市城区以老城区的中心广场为中心向四周扩展,先后经历了放射性扩展、组团式分散扩展两个阶段,同时呈现出明显的方向分异性,西南和西为其主要扩展方向,而其东南方向的扩展速度最为缓慢。自然环境中的地貌对上饶市城区城市用地的扩展起到很大的限制作用,经济社会的发展、政策规划等因素成为城市用地扩张与时空演化的外在驱动因素。     

Don’t Fight the Site: Three Geomorphic Considerations in Catchment-Scale River Rehabilitation Planning

Three geomorphic considerations that underpin the design and implementation of realistic and strategic river conservation and rehabilitation programs that work with the nature are outlined. First, the importance of appreciating the inherent diversity of river forms and processes is discussed. Second, river dynamics are appraised, framing the contemporary behavioral regime of a reach in relation to system evolution to explain changes to river character and behavior over time. Third, the trajectory of a reach is framed in relation to downstream patterns of river types, analyzing landscape connectivity at the catchment scale to interpret geomorphic river recovery potential. The application of these principles is demonstrated using extensive catchment-scale analyses of geomorphic river responses to human disturbance in the Bega and Upper Hunter catchments in southeastern Australia. Differing implications for reach- and catchment-scale rehabilitation planning prompt the imperative that management practices work with nature rather than strive to ‘fight the site.’     

生物入侵中入侵种与土著种的相互作用

在全球范围内,生物入侵已经成为一个非常严重的环境问题,并产生了生态问题和经济问题。本文阐述了生物入侵中入侵种自身的变化及对土著种的影响,并讨论了生物入侵过程中入侵种与土著种的快速进化问题。     

Octanol–air partition coefficients of polybrominated biphenyls

The octanol–air partition coefficients (K_OA) for PBB15, PBB26, PBB31, PBB49, PBB103 and PBB153 were determined as a function of temperature using a gas chromatographic retention time technique with 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis (4-chlorophenyl) ethane (p,p′-DDT) as a reference substance. The internal energies of phase change from octanol to air (Δ_OAU) were calculated for the six compounds and were in the range from 74 to 116 kJ mol⁻¹. Simple regression equations of log K_OA versus relative retention times (RRTs) on gas chromatography (GC), and log K_OA versus molecular connectivity indexes (MCI) were obtained, for which the correlation coefficients (r²) were greater than 0.985 at 283.15 K and 298.15 K. Thus the K_OA values of the remaining PBBs can be predicted by using their RRTs and MCI according to these relationships.     

Incorporating layer- and local-scale heterogeneities in numerical simulation of unsaturated flow and tracer transport

This study characterizes layer- and local-scale heterogeneities in hydraulic parameters (i.e., matrix permeability and porosity) and investigates the relative effect of layer- and local-scale heterogeneities on the uncertainty assessment of unsaturated flow and tracer transport in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, USA. The layer-scale heterogeneity is specific to hydrogeologic layers with layerwise properties, while the local-scale heterogeneity refers to the spatial variation of hydraulic properties within a layer. A Monte Carlo method is used to estimate mean, variance, and 5th, and 95th percentiles for the quantities of interest (e.g., matrix saturation and normalized cumulative mass arrival). Model simulations of unsaturated flow are evaluated by comparing the simulated and observed matrix saturations. Local-scale heterogeneity is examined by comparing the results of this study with those of the previous study that only considers layer-scale heterogeneity. We find that local-scale heterogeneity significantly increases predictive uncertainty in the percolation fluxes and tracer plumes, whereas the mean predictions are only slightly affected by the local-scale heterogeneity. The mean travel time of the conservative and reactive tracers to the water table in the early stage increases significantly due to the local-scale heterogeneity, while the influence of local-scale heterogeneity on travel time gradually decreases over time. Layer-scale heterogeneity is more important than local-scale heterogeneity for simulating overall tracer travel time, suggesting that it would be more cost-effective to reduce the layer-scale parameter uncertainty in order to reduce predictive uncertainty in tracer transport.     

衡水市空气主要污染物体积质量的时间分布特征

利用衡水市环境监测站2005—2007年度大气例行检测的数据,对衡水市大气中主要污染物SO^2、NO^2、PM10体积质量值的逐日数据进行统计分析,得出了衡水市空气污染的现状和时间变化规律：（1）污染物体积质量值的月变化曲线呈槽型分布,非取暖期的空气状况明显好于取暖期,取暖期SO^2平均体积质量是非取暖期的2．45倍;（2）污染物体积质量值的日变化曲线基本为两高两低型,其中取暖期污染指数早晨出现极高值的时间比非取暖期明显偏晚;（3）污染物体积质量值的年变化表明了SO^2的体积质量在降低,而NO^2的体积质量却有了小幅增长。     

An experimental study on the effect of mobile phone conversation on drivers' reaction time in braking response

Introduction

This paper presents an experimental study in which the effect of three factors (distance between cars, mobile call duration, and time of driving (day or night)) on drivers' reaction time in braking response was investigated.

Methods

The experiment was performed in a real driving environment in which 27 male adults between the ages of 22 and 24 years participated. Three levels of the first two factors (i.e., distance between cars and call duration) and two levels of the last factor (i.e., time of driving) were selected to conduct the experimental study. A full factorial design of experiment with 18 treatment combinations and three replicates of each combination were used. Fifty-four trial runs were performed in a random manner and for each run drivers' reaction time in braking response was measured, which served the data for further analysis. Analysis of variance (ANOVA), interaction effect analysis, and various model adequacy tests were carried out using Design Expert software.

Results

The results of the study indicated that the most important factor affecting the drivers' reaction time in car braking response was the mobile call duration followed by the time of driving, with a high level of interaction between the two factors. It was also found that the distance between cars did not seem to have a significant effect on the reaction time in braking response. It is to be noted that these response times are expected to be higher under normal driving conditions where awareness of experimental environment is not present.

Impact on Industry

The findings of this study would help mobile phone industries in improving safety of mobile phone users in driving environment.     

企业生产安全事故的“基因”分析

思索生产安全事故频发共性表象"违法、违章"背后的原因,提出"生产安全事故基因"概念。分析得出"去小概率性"、"社会责任缺失"和"非货币化产出分析能力短缺"3种生产安全事故基因,前两种基因是不可去基因,后一种是可去基因,三者会在不同的条件下以显性或隐性的形式呈现,并作用于生产过程;提出企业组织安全进化的常规对策——完善市场经济环境,创新对策——教育要为"安全"生产服务,强调学历教育系统在创新对策中的重要地位和作用。通过"基因"分析及其对策,为安全生产培养安全管理人员和相关人才,推动安全生产,实现经济与社会和谐发展。