Chilean Blue Whales as a Case Study to Illustrate Methods to Estimate Abundance and Evaluate Conservation Status of Rare Species

Abstract: Often abundance of rare species cannot be estimated with conventional design‐based methods, so we illustrate with a population of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) a spatial model‐based method to estimate abundance. We analyzed data from line‐transect surveys of blue whales off the coast of Chile, where the population was hunted to low levels. Field protocols allowed deviation from planned track lines to collect identification photographs and tissue samples for genetic analyses, which resulted in an ad hoc sampling design with increased effort in areas of higher densities. Thus, we used spatial modeling methods to estimate abundance. Spatial models are increasingly being used to analyze data from surveys of marine, aquatic, and terrestrial species, but estimation of uncertainty from such models is often problematic. We developed a new, broadly applicable variance estimator that showed there were likely 303 whales (95% CI 176–625) in the study area. The survey did not span the whales' entire range, so this is a minimum estimate. We estimated current minimum abundance relative to pre‐exploitation abundance (i.e., status) with a population dynamics model that incorporated our minimum abundance estimate, likely population growth rates from a meta‐analysis of rates of increase in large baleen whales, and two alternative assumptions about historic catches. From this model, we estimated that the population was at a minimum of 9.5% (95% CI 4.9–18.0%) of pre‐exploitation levels in 1998 under one catch assumption and 7.2% (CI 3.7–13.7%) of pre‐exploitation levels under the other. Thus, although Chilean blue whales are probably still at a small fraction of pre‐exploitation abundance, even these minimum abundance estimates demonstrate that their status is better than that of Antarctic blue whales, which are still <1% of pre‐exploitation population size. We anticipate our methods will be broadly applicable in aquatic and terrestrial surveys for rarely encountered species, especially when the surveys are intended to maximize encounter rates and estimate abundance.     

A Matrix‐Calibrated Species‐Area Model for Predicting Biodiversity Losses Due to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: Application of island biogeography theory to prediction of species extinctions resulting from habitat loss is based on the assumption that the transformed landscape matrix is completely inhospitable to the taxa considered, despite evidence demonstrating the nontrivial influence of matrix on populations within habitat remnants. The island biogeography paradigm therefore needs refining to account for specific responses of taxa to the area of habitat “islands” and to the quality of the surrounding matrix. We incorporated matrix effects into island theory by partitioning the slope (z value) of species–area relationships into two components: γ, a constant, and σ, a measure of taxon‐specific responses to each component of a heterogeneous matrix. We used our matrix‐calibrated model to predict extinction and endangerment of bird species resulting from land‐use change in 20 biodiversity hotspots and compared these predictions with observed numbers of extinct and threatened bird species. We repeated this analysis with the conventional species–area model and the countryside species–area model, considering alternative z values of 0.35 (island) or 0.22 (continental). We evaluated the relative strength of support for each of the five candidate models with Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The matrix‐calibrated model had the highest AIC weight (w_i = 89.21%), which means the weight of evidence in support of this model was the optimal model given the set of candidate models and the data. In addition to being a valuable heuristic tool for assessing extinction risk, our matrix‐calibrated model also allows quantitative assessment of biodiversity benefits (and trade‐offs) of land‐management options in human‐dominated landscapes. Given that processes of secondary regeneration have become more widespread across tropical regions and are predicted to increase, our matrix‐calibrated model will be increasingly appropriate for practical conservation in tropical landscapes.     

智能技术辅助的市（县）国土空间规划编制研究

智慧社会的出现与发展影响着人地关系,而智能技术作为智慧社会崛起的主要动力与发展的重要支撑,正在改变着国土空间的保护、开发与治理模式,也对国土空间规划编制方法提出了新要求。当前规划编制中,智能技术在国土空间规划中的应用虽然已经有了一定的探索,在技术层面也有很多实践,但缺少对智能技术应用于国土空间规划的整体性思考。基于“生态文明”基础与“以人为本”的核心理念,在对传统规划编制与当前智能技术应用梳理的基础上,从智能感知与收集、智能分析与处理、智能评估和智能决策四个方面,系统地构建全流程的智能技术辅助国土空间规划编制的框架,以适应当前国土空间规划提出的新要求,辅助编制更合理、科学、智慧的方案。     

Neighborhood effects in bird distributions,Navarre, Spain

This study examines the role of neighborhood effects in the spatial distributions of selected bird species in Navarre, Spain. We employed a geographic information system (GIS) to organize the data on bird distributions and relevant environmental variables and to analyze their spatial patterns. Three bird species were selected for analysis: the European honey-buzzard (Pernis apivorus), the Eurasian hobby (Falco subbuteo), and the European pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca). Selected environmental variables of the study area were digitized to create a comprehensive data base and logistic regression models were used to evaluate the significance of each variable in the spatial distribution. The spatial patterns of bird distributions were used to extract topological relationships and to identify neighborhood effects. Although all the selected species illustrate a pattern of positive spatial autocorrelation in their distributions, the significance of neighborhood effects varies from species to species. Among the selected species, neighborhood effects are most evident in the distribution of the European pied flycatcher and are significant for the Eurasian hobby. The distribution of the European honey-buzzard is not much affected by neighborhood effects. The results suggest that examination of neighborhood effects is a prerequisite for modeling bird distributions.     

农业废料的应用价值与开发途径

本文通过对农业废料的物质成分和物理技术特性的总结，分析了其可利用的潜在价值，并对开发利用途径作了简要论述．     

Can Sustainable Agriculture Feed Africa? New Evidence on Progress, Processes and Impacts

Africa faces enormous food security challenges. Most commentators agree that, despite the complexities of food insecurity, there will have to be increases in food production from existing agricultural land. Most, too, are pessimistic about the future, judging likelihood of success on the basis of past performance of modern agricultural development. Sustainable agriculture, though, offers new opportunities, by emphasising the productive values of natural, social and human capital, all assets that Africa either has in abundance or that can be regenerated at low financial cost.This paper sets out an assets-based model of agricultural systems, together with a typology of eight improvements that are currently in use in sustainable agriculture projects. In the 45 projects/initiatives spread across 17 countries that are investigated, some 730,000 households have substantially improved food production and household food security. In 95% of the projects where yield increases were the aim, cereal yields have improved by 50–100%. Total farm food production has increased in all. The additional positive impacts on natural, social and human capital are also helping to build the assets base so as to sustain these improvements in the future.This analysis indicates that sustainable agriculture can deliver large increases in food production in Africa. But spreading these to much larger numbers of farm households will not be easy. It will require substantial policy, institutional and professional reform.     

长江流域城市生态环境问题与跨世纪持续发展战略

综合分析评价了长江流域城市的生态环境态势与问题,城市水环境依然恶化,特别是城市内河道,湖泊水质多污染严重。城市大气污染仍是加重趋向,一些特大城市汽车尾气污染上升,城市酸雨依然严重。城市生态问题沉重,绿地不足,热岛加重,地面沉降,水土流失等。沉重的生态环境赤字已深刻影响到城市经济社会的发展。面对二十一世纪,论证了长江流域城市发展战略,走城市可持续发展之路是唯一战略选择,而建设现代化的山水园林生态城市     

长江三角洲农业发展的地域差异研究

长江三角洲地处以上海为中心的经济发展区,是我国经济实力最强、产业规模最大的三角洲,具有良好的自然、社会、人文和区位条件,农业发展水平居全国前列。但是经济发展和高密度人口也给农业进一步发展带来沉重的压力,人地矛盾和人粮矛盾加剧严重危害了长江三角洲农业的可持续发展,同时全区农业发展水平受到自然、经济和历史因素的影响,存在较大的地域差异。从长江三角洲农业发展的地域差异出发,选取与农业发展密切相关的经济、     

建设海峡西岸高效持续农业示范区的基本思路与技术对策——以福建省龙海市为例

本文以福建省龙海市为例,分析了龙海市农业发展优势与存在的问题,提出了建设海峡西岸高效持续农业示范区的基本思路与技术对策     

Farm animal welfare policymaking in the European Parliament – a social identity perspective on voting behaviour

ABSTRACT

Sustainable agriculture implies trade-offs with farm animal welfare. Proposals to increase agricultural productivity and ecological sustainability alike, are often linked to intensification, which may restrict animal welfare. Despite the growing importance of farm animal welfare for the alignment of agricultural and environmental policy, determinants of decision-making at the EU level remain unexplored. This article contributes to closing this research gap, broadening our understanding of why policymakers vote for the enactment of animal welfare policies. Applying the Social Identities in the Policy Process (SIPP) perspective we highlight the role of group membership for individual decision-making. By means of a quantitative analysis of voting behaviour in the European Parliament on two animal welfare policies, we show that different identities are salient. The strongest predictor is political group membership. In case of defections from the group line, the salience of national, sectoral and also demographic identities adds to the understanding of decision-making.