Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.     

Freshwater fish diversity hotspots for conservation priorities in the Amazon Basin

Conserving freshwater habitats and their biodiversity in the Amazon Basin is a growing challenge in the face of rapid anthropogenic changes. We used the most comprehensive fish-occurrence database available (2355 valid species; 21,248 sampling points) and 3 ecological criteria (irreplaceability, representativeness, and vulnerability) to identify biodiversity hotspots based on 6 conservation templates (3 proactive, 1 reactive, 1 representative, and 1 balanced) to provide a set of alternative planning solutions for freshwater fish protection in the Amazon Basin. We identified empirically for each template the 17% of sub-basins that should be conserved and performed a prioritization analysis by identifying current and future (2050) threats (i.e., degree of deforestation and habitat fragmentation by dams). Two of our 3 proactive templates had around 65% of their surface covered by protected areas; high levels of irreplaceability (60% of endemics) and representativeness (71% of the Amazonian fish fauna); and low current and future vulnerability. These 2 templates, then, seemed more robust for conservation prioritization. The future of the selected sub-basins in these 2 proactive templates is not immediately threatened by human activities, and these sub-basins host the largest part of Amazonian biodiversity. They could easily be conserved if no additional threats occur between now and 2050.     

平原河网地区非点源污染风险差异化分区防控研究

土地利用优化和空间防控策略对非点源污染风险控制及水环境质量的改善具有重要意义。本文以太湖流域典型平原河网地区-上海市青浦区为研究对象,将灰色线性规划模型与最小累积阻力模型相结合,以控制非点源污染风险和增加经济效益、生态效益为目标,进行土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控研究,在空间上划设了水资源保育区、水资源重点防护区、非点源污染一般阻控区、非点源污染中等阻控区及非点源污染重点阻控区,并针对不同分区提出具有针对性的防控措施。与2012年相比,预测2020年优化防控方案下,可减少总氮、总磷的输出10.96%和41.33%。由此表明,优化土地利用结构和构建空间差异化防控机制是有效调控非点源污染风险,实现区域可持续土地利用,促进经济发展和保证生态环境安全的有效途径。     

Assessing Sustainability at Multiple Scales in a Rotational Bushmeat Hunting System

Abstract: Results of many studies show unsustainable levels of bushmeat hunting across West/Central Africa. Nevertheless, these results are usually derived from snapshot sustainability indices in which critical parameters are often taken from the literature. Simple, more informative tools for assessing sustainability are needed. We evaluated the impact of bushmeat hunting across a range of temporal, spatial, and taxonomic scales in a comparison of different measures of sustainability. Over 15 months in 2002–2004 in and around a village close to Equatorial Guinea's Monte Alén National Park, we collected data via a village offtake survey, hunter‐camp bushmeat‐consumption diaries, hunter interviews, and following hunters during hunts. We compared 2003 data with a previous offtake survey (1998–1999) and interview reports back to 1990. In the past 14 years, average distance from the village at which hunters operated remained constant, with hunters switching back and forth between long‐established camps, although trapping effort increased. In the past 5 years, overall offtake and number of active hunters did not change substantially, although catch per unit effort (CPUE) decreased slightly. Although the proportion of the two most commonly trapped species (Cephalophus monticola and Atherurus africanus) and gun‐hunted primates increased in the offtake, species presumably less robust to trapping decreased slightly. Apparent sustainability in economic terms may be masking gradual local extirpation of more vulnerable species before and during this study. Our results suggest that changes in prey profiles and CPUE may be the most accurate indicators of actual sustainability; these indices can be monitored with simple village‐based offtake surveys and hunter interviews to improve community management of bushmeat hunting.     

基于环境因子和邻近信息的土壤属性空间分布预测

为探索乡镇尺度上土壤属性空间分布预测的最佳方法,以江西省万年县齐埠镇为例,借助四方位搜索法、地统计学和遥感影像分析技术提取环境因子（地形因子和植被覆盖指数）和邻近信息[w（有机质）与w（速效钾）],构建OK法（普通克里金法）、RK1法（仅基于环境因子的回归克里金法）以及RK2法（基于环境因子和邻近信息的回归克里金法）对齐埠镇耕地表层（0~20 cm）土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）空间分布进行预测.结果表明:齐埠镇土壤w（有机质）平均值为35.03 g/kg,w（速效钾）平均值为96.73 mg/kg,均为中等空间变异性.对62个样点进行建模,16个测试样点进行独立验证的误差分析表明,RK2法对土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）预测结果的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均相对误差较OK法分别降低了18.05%、18.01%、21.77%和7.25%、9.49%、9.84%;较RK1法分别降低了22.48%、20.91%、22.02%和9.27%、12.61%、13.52%.研究显示,RK2法明显提高了土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）空间分布模拟精度,并且存在改进和提高的空间.      

北京市潮白河再生水补水河段水质时空变异

城市河道是城市再生水利用的主要载体,而人工湿地是城市再生水河道补水前主要的水质净化方式.为了解再生水补水与人工湿地对再生水补水段水质的影响,选取北京市潮白河再生水补水河段作为研究对象,利用聚类分析、判别分析及因子分析等方法对不同季节水体的水质情况进行分析.结果表明:研究区内水体氮磷污染严重,其中TN污染表现为NO₃--N、NO₂--N和NH₄+-N的混合型污染.聚类分析结果表明,水质在季节尺度上表现为丰水期（6-9月）和枯水期（2月、3月、5月和12月）两大类;在空间尺度上受再生水补水和湿地净化的影响表现为显著的空间差异性.判别分析结果表明,再生水补给对河道水质的影响无显著季节差异,湿地净化功能在丰水期和枯水期差异较大且丰水期湿地的净化效果最为明显.因子分析结果表明,再生水作为城市河道的补充水源,一方面对河道中的F-、Chl-a等起到稀释作用,另一方面使得水体中的N、P及离子含量增加;丰水期湿地的净化作用使水体中氮磷等有机营养物质含量及ρ（TDS）等显著降低.      

重庆市突发环境事件时空格局及影响研究

基于2009年-2015年重庆市突发环境事件统计数据,研究了重庆市近7年突发环境事件的动态变化趋势、空间分布格局及污染影响特征,讨论了引发突发环境事件内外部因素之间的关系.结果表明:重庆市7年内共发生突发环境事件134起,且呈波动下降趋势,春季和夏季为交通事故和自然灾害高发期;突发环境事件空间上主要集中在主城九区及相邻的区县,渝西、渝东南及渝东北各区县发生次数较少.道路交通事故、设备故障和操作不当是导致突发环境事件的主要因素,主要发生形式为泄漏.污染类型主要为水污染和水气复合污染,污染物出现频率大小为:油类>酸碱类>液氨>苯及其化合物>减水剂>其他各种污染物.     

基于GIS和LUR模型的西安市PM2.5浓度空间分布模拟研究

基于地理信息系统GIS和土地利用回归LUR模型,模拟西安市PM2.5浓度空间动态分布,结果表明:与PM2.5浓度相关性最高的分别为缓冲区为2 km的水域面积、人口密度和距离水域距离,R 2分别为0.501,0.393和0.280;与PM2.5浓度相关性最低的分别为缓冲区为4 km的水域面积、未利用地面积和耕地面积,R 2分别为0.039、0.021和0.017.未考虑风速建立的LUR模型多元回归的相关系数为0.856,R 2为0.733,考虑风速的相关系数为0.892,R 2为0.796,表明风速对于污染物的分布影响较大,LUR模型模拟效果较好.模拟的PM2.5年均浓度高风险区分布于中部,中风险区分布于中西部,低风险区分布于东南部和西部.