中国山区沟谷泥石流危险度的定量判定法

本文根据专家系统调查,确定了一次泥石流冲出物最大方量和泥石流暴发频率作为判定泥石流危险度的主要危险因子。运用灰色关联度分析,优选出10项判定泥石流危险度的次要危险因子,并根据关联序确定了它们的权重。在各危险因子等级划分的基础上,得出了泥石流危险度的定量计算公式。通过实例检验,证明该判定方法具有60％以上的可靠度。     

新疆巩留县博图沟泥石流灾害及灾因分析

本文分析了1991年新疆博图沟罕见泥石流灾害及灾因,认为这次灾害主要是自然因素,与人为因素关系不大,并提出了在山区工作、游牧应注意的事项。     

MODEL STUDIES OF SALT WATER INTRUSION1

Model studies were and are still being used to verify certain theories in ground-water flow systems in general. In complex cases, the model studies may be extremely useful especially when a theoretical rigorous analysis does not exist. The models cannot be considered entirely satisfactory due to the several drawbacks in each type in addition to the normal human errors in experimentation. This paper is concerned only with the viscous flow models. However, a brief summary of the other types of models, which may possibly be used in connection with salt water intrusion problems is given. It should be noted that some of such experiments are not directly related to the field of salt water intrusion. Two main types lie within this category: The gravity flow systems which are analogous to some phases of salt intrusion problems and problems in oil fields which bear general similarities to sea water intrusion zones. In oil fields, gas cycling studies give valuable information to sea water problems. Model studies are used by hydraulic engineers, geologists, petroleum engineers, physicists, foundation engineers and several other professional groups.     

EFFECTS OF TIME STEP SIZE IN IMPLICIT DYNAMIC ROUTING1

ABSTRACT The effects of the size of the Δt time step used in the integration of the implicit difference equations of unsteady open-channel flow are determined for numerous typical hydrographs with durations in the order of days or even weeks. Truncation errors related to the size of the Δt time step cause a numerical distortion (dispersion and attenuation) of the computed transient. The magnitude of the distortion is related directly to the size of the time step, the length of channel reach, and the channel resistance and inversely to the time of rise of the hydrograph. The type of finite difference expression which replaces spatial derivatives and non-derivative terms in the partial differential equations of unsteady flow has an important influence on the magnitude of the numerical distortion, as well as the numerical stability of the implicit difference equations. Time step sizes in the range of 3 to 6 hrs generally tend to minimize the combination of required computation time and numerical distortion of transients having a time of rise of the order of several days.     

自然资源开发利用度预警分析

本文分析了建立自然资源开发利用预警的必要性,研究了预警系统和预警流程。提出了预警建立的原则和相应的指标体系     

泥石流与人类经济活动

山地是泥石流与人类共存的环境,泥石流作用于山地环境,强烈地影响人类经济活动：人类经济活动也作用于山地环境,强烈地影响泥石流。泥石流对山地环境的危害,主要为破坏地表、破坏生态系统和淤堵江河;泥石流对人类及其经济活动的危害,主要为破坏城镇,村庄,工矿,交通水利水电工程,农田和人类自身的安全。泥石流危害的结果,能导致山地坡面破碎化、沟口沙石化、河床宽浅化和植被逆向演替化,以及耕地贫瘠化、经济发展滞后化和     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

Conservation Opportunities for Securing In-Stream Flows in the Platte River Basin: A Case Study Drawing on Casper,Wyoming’s MunicipalWater Strategy

The Platte River Basin consists of tributaries largely in Wyoming, Colorado and Western Nebraska, with the main stem in Central Nebraska. Critical wildlife habitat on the main stem requires additional in-stream flows. The watershed is one hosting multiple resources, a variety of users, and managed by an array of state and federal agencies. This study proposes a basis for securing in-stream flows for the Platte River. Candidate water supply mechanisms are suggested based on the way in which Casper, Wyoming secured water for its municipal needs. Canal lining is compared to a dam project, increasing reservoir storage, and purchasing water rights, with consideration also made for water pricing to reduce municipal use. Comparisons are based on economic efficiency, potential water conservation, and property rights criteria. Canal lining, coupled with demand management, is shown to conserve water best, given the set of efficiency and cost criteria for in-stream flow enhancement. The approach offers an opportunity to organize the water supply choice context in a transboundary watershed when quantitative information is limited.     

煤矸石山自然发火数学模型在红阳三矿新矸石山自燃防治中的应用

煤矿矸石山自燃现象普遍存在 ,对环境污染及危害极大 ,防治矸石山自燃是矿区环境修复的重点研究内容。笔者利用宏观的连续介质研究方法 ,以多孔介质流体动力学理论为指导 ,建立了煤矿矸石山自然发火数学模型 ,从数学上揭示了矸石山自燃的动态演变过程。通过分析矸石山内的渗流场明确了自然发火的影响因素及内在联系 ,针对红阳三矿新矸石山的自燃预防问题 ,提出了碾压、覆盖和边界注浆相结合的综合防治施工方案。该技术在红阳三矿新矸石山的现场应用表明 ,治理方案科学、经济、合理 ,实施效果良好。研究结果对预防矸石山自燃具有理论指导意义与实际应用价值。     

春季连阴雨对江苏省夏收作物产量的影响

分析了江苏省40年(1960～1999)春季连阴雨的发生概率、发展趋势及其时空分布规律。研究发现,春季连阴雨累计日数、总雨量与夏粮产量呈显著负相关关系,且累计日数≥30d时,夏粮减产非常明显,这种情况的发生概率达59．1％。