煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析

在构建影响人的安全行为因素因果关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,对影响人的安全行为关键因素进行动态预测,并通过仿真计算、对比分析安全投入增加对系统安全水平的影响。应用该方法建立的煤矿生产中人的安全行为指标水平模型,以求证安全投入与人的安全行为水平的相关性,为煤矿安全管理决策提供一种新的思路,亦有助于政府和煤矿企业科学地明确安全投入方向,降低人因事故率,提高煤矿生产的安全水平。     

爆炸荷载作用下钢筋混凝土防爆墙动力响应研究

为了研究钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆能力,采用有限元分析方法对不同纵向配筋率、不同高跨比、不同厚度的墙体在爆炸动态荷载作用下的动力响应进行研究,对各种不同设置的钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆性能进行评估。结果表明:减小高跨比对提高钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆能力最为重要,提高纵向配筋率,增加厚度都能增加防爆墙的抗爆能力。     

基于集对分析的尾矿库安全评价研究

为更好地对尾矿库的安全状况进行综合评价,针对尾矿库的特点建立了指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定各指标权重.将集对分析理论用于尾矿库的安全评价,并通过实例证明该理论适合于尾矿库的安全评价.集对分析中差异度I取1和-1.研究表明,当I=1时,指标体系中所有处于"一般安全"状态的指标项经过整改后能处于"安全"状态,此时联系度μ=0.736,尾矿库处于"安全"状态; 当I=-1时,指标体系中所有处于"一般安全"状态的指标项,在安全管理水平下降的情况下全部转为"不安全"状态,此时μ=0.114,尾矿库处于"不安全"状态.I的不同取值可反映尾矿库的具体安全状态,同时也反映尾矿库的安全管理水平,并充分体现了安全管理的重要性.研究为尾矿库的安全评价提供了一条新途径.     

新疆矿区煤矿瓦斯排放现状与趋势分析

为获得新疆矿区当前生产规模对应的瓦斯排放基量,调查了研究矿区生产矿井的瓦斯排放现状.根据各矿区2004-2006年生产矿井的开采煤层、生产水平、生产规模和瓦斯排放等参数,对不同矿区和煤田进行了统计分析,计算了新疆矿区当前生产规模对应的瓦斯排放总量,同时对重点瓦斯防治矿区和一般瓦斯防治矿区进行了分类.调查结果表明,新疆矿区煤矿平均吨煤相对瓦斯涌出量由2004年的2.82m3/t增加到2006年的3.09 m3/t,呈逐年递增趋势; 新疆矿区2004-2006年的年平均瓦斯(CH4)排放量为1.05×108 m3/a;准南煤田(I)和塔北煤田(VI)的平均绝对瓦斯涌出量分别占全疆绝对瓦斯涌出总量的64.82%和15.19%,为相对瓦斯富集区,也是当前瓦斯防治的重点区域.按照矿区3年平均绝对瓦斯涌出量(大于1.00m3/min)或平均相对瓦斯涌出量(大于5m3/t)将新疆矿区分为重点瓦斯防治矿区和一般瓦斯防治矿区,并提出了瓦斯分类治理的具体建议.应用灰色系统理论,结合调查数据分别求解了新疆矿区原煤产量与绝对瓦斯涌出量的GM[1,1]预测模型.本研究为新疆煤炭资源后续规模开发过程中的相关环境决策和节能减排政策的实施提供了依据.     

重型自卸汽车车架横梁异常断裂原因分析

针对无副车架的重型自卸汽车在使用过程中出现的车架横梁异常断裂问题,建立了以板壳单元为基本单元的自卸汽车车架有限元分析模型,采用NASTRAN有限元分析软件对车架强度进行分析.有限元分析结果表明,车架横梁异常断裂现象是横梁连接部位应力值大于材料的屈服强度引起的,这与实车车架断裂结果吻合.根据实际工艺要求,改造车架结构,将连接第2根横梁和纵梁的L板厚度变大,并将平衡悬架推力杆支座由整体式支撑改为分体式支撑,从而使两处的最大应力值分别比原结构下降20.4%和51.7%.改进后车架断裂区的强度明显提高,这表明改造方法有效.     

警用头盔的人机工程学分析

警用头盔是武警部队使用最为频繁的单兵防护用具,本文基于人机工程学的理论,用人机工程学的观点对武警部队现装备的警用头盔进行分析和探讨,提出解决途径的设想,展望警用头盔的发展前景。     

一种湿度计的校准方法——测量不确定度分析校准法

本文提出了校准湿度计的一种新方法一测量不确定度分析校准法,以利用5121湿度发生器校准可输出（0-5）V的湿度传感器的基本误差为例,介绍了其校准方法确定了该方法校准湿度计的置信度和准确葭：     

The Iowa Graduated Driver Licensing program: effectiveness in reducing crashes of teenage drivers

PROBLEM: Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs vary in the United States in terms of implementation and restrictions. The State of Iowa's GDL program is assessed for its effectiveness in reducing crashes among teenage drivers. METHOD: Time series analysis was used to evaluate police documented crashes involving 16-, 17-, and 18-year-old drivers over a 10 year period, with an intervention identified at the point of GDL implementation. RESULTS: After controlling for seasonal trends and auto-correlative effects, a significant reduction in the crash rate of and 16- and 17-year-old drivers was observed due to the GDL implementation. However, there were no significant reductions in crash rates for 18-year-old drivers. DISCUSSION: The analyses suggest that the Iowa GDL program is effective in reducing the crash rates of 16- and 17-year-old drivers but the effects do not sustain for 18-year-old drivers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that the program appears to be working, however further analysis is needed to determine what factors are preventing lasting effects for these teenage drivers.     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

Oil spill cleanup cost estimation—Developing a mathematical model for marine environment

The field of oil spill cost modelling is not as well explored as desirable. Generally speaking, the existing models have either low accuracy, in that their predictions are far from the real cost, or low applicability, in that they are only valid under very specific conditions; such as in one particular country. This work strives to construct a model that is functional in a global scope and still possess a high level of accuracy. The resulting attempt is in many ways superior to the publicly available competitors, not only because of its predictive capacity but also because the model is quick to use, and its input variables should be readily available to any informed user. The model is more accurate comparing with similar available models. However, further study is needed to modify it to obtain more realistic results.