亚热带城市河流浮游细菌群落的季节演替及构建机制

细菌是河流生态系统的重要组成部分,在污染物降解、物质循环和能量流动等方面扮演着重要角色.然而亚热带城市河流细菌群落的季节演替和构建机制(确定性和随机性过程)仍不明晰.以流溪河及广州珠江段为研究对象,采用16S rRNA高通量测序分析探讨了不同季节(丰水期和枯水期)水体细菌群落的变化及其构建机制.结果表明：不同季节水体细菌群落的组成存在显著差异,丰水期,变形菌门和异常球菌-栖热菌门的丰度更高;而枯水期,拟杆菌门和厚壁菌门的丰度更高.细菌群落的α和β多样性同样具有显著的季节差异,T、NH₄⁺-N、TOC、pH、EC、DO、NO₃^--N和DSi是影响细菌群落季节变化的主要环境因子.水体细菌群落的生态网络具有典型的模块化结构,物种间以正相关作用(合作关系)为主,且丰水期物种间的合作关系强于枯水期.随机性过程主导了细菌群落的构建,尤其以扩散限制贡献最大,且细菌群落在枯水期面临的扩散限制要高于丰水期.     

一个水质风险率计算的随机模型

将水质当作随机变量，基于随机点过程理论，构造了水质超阈值风险分析的成丛随机点过程复合（ＣＳＰＰＣ）模型，并应用于深圳市深圳河河口段水体ＤＯ、ＣＯＤ浓度超阈值的风险率估算，由实际资料对河段水体ＤＯ、ＣＯＤ浓度超阈值点过程的分布进行了拟合优度试验，获得满意计算结果。     

On interacting bee/mite populations: a stochastic model with analysis using cumulant truncation

Parasitism by the Varroa mite has had recent drastic impact on both managed and feral bee colonies. This paper proposes a stochastic population dynamics model for interacting African bee colony and Varroa mite populations. Cumulant truncation procedures are used to obtain approximate transient cumulant functions, unconstrained by the usual assumption of bivariate Normality, for an assumed large-scale model. The apparent size of the variance and skewness functions suggest the importance of the proposed truncation procedure which retains some higher-order cumulants, but determining the accuracy of the approximations is problematical. A smaller-scale bee/Varroa mite model is hence proposed and investigated. The accuracy for the means is exceptional, for the second-order cumulants is moderate, and for some third-order cumulants is poor. Notwithstanding the poor accuracy of a skewness approximation, the saddlepoint approximations for the marginal transient population size distributions are excellent. The cumulant truncation methodology is very general, and research is continuing in its application to this new class of host-parasite models.     

随机地震激励下相邻隔震结构被动控制研究

利用隔震结构和非隔震结构间的相互作用来减小地震作用下的结构响应,考虑地震激励的随机性,基于Clough-Penzien谱模型,推导了相邻结构随机响应的拓展状态方程,采用两种优化控制目标,分析得到了相邻隔震结构体系间连接控制装置的控制参数与结构随机响应的关系及其对控制效果的影响,并分别从地震响应时程和振动累计能量时程角度研究了相应地多自由度相邻隔震结构复合被动控制体系,在不同优化准则及不同控制方案下,结构体系的减震控制效果。研究结果表明,相邻隔震结构复合被动控制体系,可以获得较好的减震控制效果,阻尼系数在减震控制中起主要作用,但存在最优取值,并不是越大越好;采用以左、右子结构振动总能量最小为优化准则,在顶层+中间层安装控制装置的控制方案,可以有效地减小相邻结构的地震响应,得到的控制效果较好。     

Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

HYDROLOGIC DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS OF CONSTRUCTED WETLANDS FOR URBAN STORMWATER RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: The successful design of constructed wetlands requires a continuous supply of water or vegetation that can withstand drought conditions. Having a constant water source is the best alternative to insure species diversity throughout the season. Consequently, detention structure designs should be based on times between events as well as on hydrologic return periods, since between events is when most evaporation and infiltration losses are likely to occur. In arid or semi-arid environments, this is a difficult process because of long interevent times and seasonal changes in precipitation patterns. This discussion is predicated on the assumption that phytoplankton, epiphytic algae, and emergent vegetation require moist conditions to be effective at removing nutrients, metals and other pollutants. There are drought tolerant species of vegetation that can be used in constructed wetlands but it may take several days to re-establish the attached bacteria communities necessary for optimum pollutant removal. This paper examines a stochastic framework to examine the probability of extended dry periods based on historic rainfall data. The number of consecutive dry days is selected for a specified level of assurance. By multiplying this value by the sum of daily system losses, an overall pond volume can be determined that ensures a minimum depth of water. To illustrate the utility of the approach, the method is applied to a site in Spokane, Washington.     

基于竞争失效的导弹机电产品可靠性评估

目的 解决导弹机电产品退化-突发竞争失效模式下的可靠性评估问题。方法 对导弹典型机电产品电机进行贮存失效分析,同时考虑双参数退化失效和突发失效对电机贮存可靠性的影响。首先,以具有随机效应的非线性Wiener过程描述电机贮存退化失效过程中的非线性、随机性和样本差异性。然后,采用Weibull分布描述突发失效过程规律,并考虑退化程度对突发失效的影响。最后,利用Copula函数刻画退化性能参数之间的相互作用关系,建立双参数退化-突发竞争失效模型,并给出基于两步极大似然估计的参数估计方法。结果 以仿真导弹电机退化突发失效数据为例进行分析,实现了基于双参数退化-突发竞争失效模型的系统可靠性评估,得到电机贮存5 a时的可靠度估计值为0.465。结论 所构建的双参数随机退化与突发失效相关的竞争失效模型有效,为导弹机电产品可靠性验证评估及寿命预测提供了相应的理论依据。     

环境评价Petri网理论可移植性的方法学研究

从复杂系统、开放式巨系统仿真的角度分析,环境影响评价工程分析项目的系统属性为离散事件动态系统,而污染物的产生、排放过程属于随机过程,所以,需要采用复杂系统分析的方法对现有的环评工程分析理论进行改进。Petri网理论是分析离散事件动态系统的方法之一,其特点也非常适合对现今的环评工程分析方法进行改进。将Petri网的基础理论与环评理论相融合,使Petri网理论拥有了系统的环评学释义,进而为将Petri网理论引入环评科学开辟了道路。     

Adapting to new realities: an analysis of institutional work in three cases of Dutch infrastructure planning

The social and institutional context of infrastructure planning has shifted tremendously over recent decades. From top–down implementation, infrastructure planners are now forced to incorporate the demands and wishes of citizens and other external stakeholders. This paper adopts the analytical perspective of institutional work to analyse how a number of Dutch infrastructure planning organisations try to remain in control over these changes in their institutional context. Building on social systems thinking, this paper distinguishes three environments in which this control can play out: the internal environment over which an organisation has complete control, an external environment over which an organisation has little control and a transactional environment where the organisation, through its interactions with other actors, can influence institutional development. The paper concludes that while most forms of institutional work applied by the infrastructure planning organisations under study aim to change the organisations’ interactions with stakeholders, the forms of institutional work are predominantly located within the internal environment of planning organisations.