A PROBABILISTIC BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF A ZONING PROGRAM FOR FLOOD PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Various techniques, one of which is zoning, are used to control the extent of flood damage. The benefit-cost analysis of zoning programs must take into account the random nature of flooding. This paper outlines a method for determining not only the expected value of the benefit-cost ratio, but also the probability of such a zoning program being profitable. It also presents an application of the method to the assessment of the Outaouais Regional Community zoning program.     

不确定条件下矿产资源的最优开采

通过一个连续时间的随机动态规划模型,探讨了市场需求、资源存量的不确定性以及勘探活动对矿产资源价格和开采速度的影响,并给出了随机条件下Hotelling法则的表达形式.模型结果显示:不确定性对资源价格变化速度的影响主要取决于开采成本,如果相对于资源存量来说开采成本是不变的或者开采的规模成本是不变的,则不确定性对资源价格的变化速度没有影响.反之,如果开采的规模成本是递增的,则不确定性会加速资源价格的变化.此外,不确定性的存在将加快资源的开采速度.至于勘探活动,它一方面降低了地质条件的不确定性,另一方面增加了资源的存量,所以勘探活动降低了资源价格和开采速度的变化率,减少了不确定性对资源开采的影响.     

洪水多站峰量同时模拟的随机模型

洪水过程是一复杂的随机动力系统，随机模拟技术至今仍是研究洪水过程时空统计特性的有力工具。该文以同时模拟上游站、下游站及其区间的最大洪峰流量、最大五日洪量和最大十二日洪量为例，建立了一种简便而适用的随机模型。实例结果表明，该随机模型是可行而有效的，在水资源系统工程的理论与实践中具有重要价值。     

SOLUTE TRANSPORT IN THREE‐DIMENSIONAL SATURATED POROUS MEDIA HAVING SELF‐SIMILAR HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: Customarily, it has been assumed that hydraulic conductivity is a stationary, homogeneous stochastic process with a finite variance for stochastic analysis of solute transport in the subsurface. That the distribution of hydraulic conductivity may have a fractal behavior with long range correlations was suggested from field data analyses. This motivates us to further investigate how the fractal behavior of permeability distribution impacts solute transport in porous media. This study provides longitudinal and transverse macrodispersivity coefficients and the variance of the solute concentration. Longitudinal and transverse macrodispersivity coefficients are found to depend strongly on the fractal dimension (D) of logarithmic hydraulic conductivity (logK). The longitudinal and transverse macrodispersivity coefficients are the highest when D = 1, and the values decrease monotonically to zero at D = 2. Both coefficients correspond to the characteristic length scale of the logK distribution, thus are scale dependent parameters. The ratio of the transverse to the longitudinal macrodispersivity coefficient is on the order of 10^‐1 to 10^‐4. Concentration variance also decreases with the fractal dimension of logK. There is no spatial spreading of solute for D = 2, and the concentration variance reaches zero for this case.     

GENERATION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION OVER AN AREA1

ABSTRACT: A model was developed of the periodic-stochastic structure of daily precipitation over an area. The model is based ona multivariate normal distribution. The square roots of daily precipitation at a point were found to approximate a sample from a univariate normal distribution that had been truncated at zero. The zero daily precipitation amounts were considered negative amounts of unknown quantity. The multivariate normal distribution was used to describe the variation of daily precipitation over an area. The periodic fluctuations of the model parameters were described with Fourier series. The model was tested using data from two areas of different precipitation characteristics. Data generated with the model contained many of the statistical characteristics observed in the historical data.     

基于随机前沿分析的中国城镇建设用地利用效率研究

建设用地高效利用是促进城镇高质量增长的有效方式之一。借助2009—2016年30个省级单元面板数据,构建了用于城镇建设用地效率测度的“一步法”随机前沿模型,并对效率水平与建设用地投入、污染水平等展开关联比较。结果表明:（1）非期望产出会导致城镇建设用地利用效率损失,研究期内其分别造成东、中、西部效率损失3.77%、7.74%、8.77%。（2）效率分布具有明显的区域非均衡性,东部总体水平最高,而西部最低;且在考虑非期望产出后,不同地区效率值会因污染排放程度的差异而呈现更大分异。（3）高投入、高产出并不一定带来高土地利用效率,较高的污染排放也会造成效率损失。研究结果有助于揭示未来建设用地效率改进的重点与方向。     

南昌市湖泊丰水期浮游细菌群落结构及影响因素

浮游细菌群落对城市湖泊中的营养元素循环及有机质分解发挥着重要作用.基于高通量测序技术,对南昌市湖泊浮游细菌群落结构的时间(4、6和8月)和城郊差异及其影响因素进行了研究.结果表明：(1)南昌湖泊浮游细菌优势类群为放线菌门(Actinobacteria, 41.60%)、变形菌门(Proteobacteria, 22.29%)、蓝藻菌门(Cyanobacteria, 16.21%)和拟杆菌门(Bacteroidota, 10.17%).(2)南昌湖泊细菌群落结构在4、6和8月间存在显著差异,但在城区湖泊与郊区湖泊间不存在显著差异;以Proteobacteria(4月>6月>8月)和Cyanobacteria(6月>8月>4月)为主的10种菌门的丰度在3个月份间存在显著差异;6月菌群结构的相似性会随地理距离的增加产生明显的减小趋势,4月和8月的减小趋势不明显.(3)在降水偏多的6月,湖泊非淡水细菌的占比显著高于4月和8月,城区湖泊与郊区湖泊的非淡水细菌占比没有显著差异.(4)确定性过程主导了湖泊细菌群落的构建,随机过程对湖泊菌群构建的贡献较低;水温是影响南昌湖泊细菌...     

The Precautionary Principle for Environmental Management: A Defensive-expenditure Application

The Precautionary Principle has emerged in response to the need for an effective method for dealing with risks and uncertainties in environmental management. In essence, the Principle requires action to prevent serious and irreversible damage even before harm can be scientifically demonstrated or economically assessed. Proponents argue that the Principle should be applied in situations where both the probability and value of irreversible damage are unknown. The lack of these particular data prevent a full cost–benefit analysis, but permit application of the Principle through the defensive-expenditure approach. How much would the community be required to pay to fund alternatives to maintain the environment and so defend existing levels of utility? Through the application of risk analysis and the stochastic dominance technique, a range of options and outcomes can be examined incorporating the using available information within a framework consistent with economic rationality. An extended risk simulation is applied to an environmental issue where there is a risk of serious and irreversible damage to the environment, namely, protection of the Barmah-Millewa forest-wetland in Australia.     

Inhibition of rhythmic neural spiking by noise: the occurrence of a minimum in activity with increasing noise

The effects of noise on neuronal dynamical systems are of much current interest. Here, we investigate noise-induced changes in the rhythmic firing activity of single Hodgkin–Huxley neurons. With additive input current, there is, in the absence of noise, a critical mean value μ = μ _c above which sustained periodic firing occurs. With initial conditions as resting values, for a range of values of the mean μ near the critical value, we have found that the firing rate is greatly reduced by noise, even of quite small amplitudes. Furthermore, the firing rate may undergo a pronounced minimum as the noise increases. This behavior has the opposite character to stochastic resonance and coherence resonance. We found that these phenomena occurred even when the initial conditions were chosen randomly or when the noise was switched on at a random time, indicating the robustness of the results. We also examined the effects of conductance-based noise on Hodgkin–Huxley neurons and obtained similar results, leading to the conclusion that the phenomena occur across a wide range of neuronal dynamical systems. Further, these phenomena will occur in diverse applications where a stable limit cycle coexists with a stable focus.     

环境评价Petri网理论可移植性的方法学研究

从复杂系统、开放式巨系统仿真的角度分析,环境影响评价工程分析项目的系统属性为离散事件动态系统,而污染物的产生、排放过程属于随机过程,所以,需要采用复杂系统分析的方法对现有的环评工程分析理论进行改进。Petri网理论是分析离散事件动态系统的方法之一,其特点也非常适合对现今的环评工程分析方法进行改进。将Petri网的基础理论与环评理论相融合,使Petri网理论拥有了系统的环评学释义,进而为将Petri网理论引入环评科学开辟了道路。