DROUGHT INDICATORS AND TRIGGERS: A STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: Drought management depends on indicators to detect drought conditions, and triggers to activate drought responses. But determining those indicators and triggers presents challenges. Indicators often lack spatial and temporal transferability, comparability among scales, and relevance to critical drought impacts. Triggers often lack statistical integrity, consistency among drought categories, and correspondence with desired management goals. This article presents an approach for developing and evaluating drought indicators and triggers, using a probabilistic framework that offers comparability, consistency, and applicability. From that, a multistate Markov model investigates the stochastic behavior of indicators and triggers, including transitioning, duration, and frequency within drought categories. This model is applied to the analysis of drought in the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States, using indicators of the Standardized Precipitation Index (for 3, 6, 9, and 12 months), the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index. The analysis revealed differences among the performance of indicators and their trigger thresholds, which can influence drought responses. Results contribute to improved understanding of drought phenomena, statistical methods for indicators and triggers, and insights for drought management.     

森林资源-环境-经济复合大系统可持续发展优化模型及其应用

运用系统工程方法和大系统理论，分析区域性森林资源-环境-经济复合大系统（FREES）的结构与原理。在可持续发展的总体要求下，将森林资源、森林环境和林业经济三个子系统作为一个有机整体，构建基于ε-约束法的多目标优化模型，以及包含各子系统的目标函数模型、约束条件模型和关联模型在内的FREES大系统分解-协调优化模型。然后，将该模型用于江苏省FREES可持续发展优化问题，得出了具有实际指导意义的最优方案。     

Optimal Design Methods for Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

Renewable and hybrid energy systems (HESs) are expanding due to environmental concerns of climate change, air pollution, and depleting fossil fuels. Moreover, HESs can be cost effective in comparison with conventional power plants. This article reviews current methods for designing optimal HESs. The survey shows these systems are often developed on a medium scale in remote areas and stand-alone, but there is a global growing interest for larger scale deployments that are grid connected. Examples of HESs are PV–wind–battery and PV–diesel–battery. PV and wind energy sources are the most widely adopted. Diesel and batteries are often used but hydrogen is increasing as a clean energy carrier. The design of an efficient HES is challenging because HES models are nonlinear, non-convex, and composed of mixed-type variables that cannot be solved by traditional optimization methods. Alternatively, two types of approaches are typically used for designing optimal HESs: simulation-based optimization and metaheuristic optimization methods. Simulation-based optimization methods are limited in view of human intervention that makes them tedious, time consuming, and error prone. Metaheuristics are more efficient because they can handle automatically a range of complexities. In particular, multi-objective optimization (MOO) metaheuristics are the most appropriate for optimal HES because HES models involve multiple objectives at the same time such as cost, performance, supply/demand management, grid limitations, and so forth. This article shows that the energy research community has not fully utilized state-of-the-art MOO metaheuristics. More recent MOO metaheuristics could be used such as robust optimization and interactive optimization.     

长沙市产业园区优化整合研究

产业园区作为产业发展的载体,是区域经济发展、产业调整升级的重要空间集聚形式.由于缺乏正确引导,长沙市产业园区出现了产业同构、园区特色不鲜明、土地利用效率低下、园区功能分区不合理、园区发展参差不齐等问题.以此为研究对象,从园区等级、空间和产业三大方面提岀优化整合策略,为长沙市产业园区发展提供参考.     

基于缩比模型的导管架平台外加电流阴极保护系统优化设计

目的研究远地式辅助阳极发生电流单元的改变和距离平台的相对位置对平台电位分布及保护程度的影响。方法以位于渤海湾JZ120-1在役导管架平台为原型,构建了一个1∶20的缩比模型。在平台底部一定距离处放置一座远地式辅助阳极,研究恒电流下辅助阳极与平台底部间距和辅助阳极发生电流单元的改变对平台电位分布及其保护程度的影响。结果单座远地阳极即可实现对整座平台的腐蚀控制。辅助阳极距离平台越远,平台表面电位差越小,电位分布越均匀;辅助阳极距离平台越近,单支阳极较四支阳极保护下的平台表面电位差越大,距离越远,电位差越小,距离相同时,4支阳极较单支阳极保护下的平台表面电位差小,电位分布更均匀。尽管海水稀释20倍,钙质沉积层的沉积与覆盖仍是影响平台表面电位分布的重要因素。结论辅助阳极发生电流单元的数量、距离平台的相对位置以及钙质沉积层的覆盖是影响平台表面电位分布和保护程度的重要因素。     

基于Ventsim系统的通风井巷断面优化研究

进行通风井巷断面优化须同时考虑巷道断面的经济最优和安全可靠.经济最优是井巷优化的基建费用、维护费用和通风费用之和最小.安全可靠是井巷优化断面尺寸能同时满足通风风速和行人运输的要求.先运用Ventsim三维通风动态仿真系统建立矿井通风系统三维模型,进行通风系统风网数据解算和风流动态模拟,并在此基础上,运用Ventsim系统对需优化断面进行经济断面选型;然后,对经济断面进行通风安全性和行人运输安全性验证,确定巷道优化断面;最后,将此方法应用于板溪锑矿回风斜井和明斜井的优化中,结果表明,用这种方法进行通风井巷断面优化有实际工程意义.     

高层建筑火灾初期人员疏散策略的优化分析

通过分析高层建筑火灾条件下的人员安全疏散问题,构建了高层建筑火灾初期的垂直疏散模型,并提出2种疏散策略.策略Ⅰ:电梯停靠层以下全部用楼梯疏散,停靠层及以上楼层用电梯疏散;策略Ⅱ:各楼层人员按不同比例通过电梯进行疏散.然后通过调用随机函数,在一个动态运行模式下求解模型,分析停靠层、楼层人数及电梯疏散人数比例对疏散效果的影响,得到2种策略条件下的近似最优解.分析楼梯、电梯的疏散规律,得出楼层人数、电梯停靠层和电梯疏散人数比例对疏散效果的影响并非单一的线性关系:楼层人数较少时,随楼层的增加,电梯疏散更具优势;楼层人数过多时,电梯、楼梯的疏散效果都不明显,此时需要合理确定通过楼梯、电梯疏散的人数比例才能提高疏散效果.比较2种策略发现,策略Ⅱ疏散时间更短,而策略Ⅰ在现实中的运行能力和可操作性更强.     

管式加热炉间壁式空气预热器现状分析及方案优化

管式加热炉排出的高温烟气夹带大量的热量,降低排烟温度、减少排烟热损失可以提高加热炉的热效率,以目前常用的烟气直接预热空气和烟气间接预热空气两个方案进行对比分析,找出存在问题,并对烟气预热器的结构、排列方式进行改进,降低管式加热炉的能耗。     

改进的Elman神经网络在瓦斯涌出量预测中的应用

在煤矿瓦斯灾害中,煤矿瓦斯突出是导致瓦斯重特大事故的主要原因之一。目前常用的基于反向传播(BP)神经网络和遗传算法-Elman神经网络(GA-ENN)耦合算法等建立瓦斯涌出量预测模型的预测方法在收敛性和精度上均存在一定的缺陷。提出了一种利用混沌免疫遗传优化算法(CIGOA)对Elman神经网络进行改进的新型智能优化算法来增强粒子的活性,提高其局部搜索能力和全局优化能力,克服了遗传算法(GA)的固有缺陷。对煤矿现场跟踪实测后进行仿真分析,结果表明:运用提出的CIGOA-ENN预测模型预测的最大相对误差为4.47%,最小相对误差为1.12%,平均相对误差为2.27%,明显小于BP神经网络和GA-ENN等预测模型的预测结果,表明CIGOA-ENN预测模型的输出结果更精确,对瓦斯涌出量预测系统的辨识误差更小,性能更优越。     

Improved Weather Generator Algorithm for Multisite Simulation of Precipitation and Temperature

The KnnCAD Version 4 weather generator algorithm for nonparametric, multisite simulations of temperature and precipitation data is presented. The K‐nearest neighbor weather generator essentially reshuffles the historical data, with replacement. In KnnCAD Version 4, a block resampling scheme is introduced to preserve the temporal correlation structure in temperature data. Perturbation of the reshuffled variable data is also added to enhance the generation of extreme values. The Upper Thames River Basin in Ontario, Canada is used as a case study and the model is shown to simulate effectively the historical characteristics at the site. The KnnCAD Version 4 approach is shown to improve on the previous versions of the model and offers a major advantage over many parametric and semiparametric weather generators in that multisite use can be easily achieved without making statistical assumptions dealing with the spatial correlations and probability distributions of each variable.