汶川8.0级地震触发地质灾害发育分布规律研究

汶川8.0级地震共触发地质灾害13 759处,灾区39个县(市、区)的地质灾害发育密度达14.02处/100 km2。该文采用以上数据,探讨了地震地质灾害的区域性分布规律,着重分析了地震地质灾害与地震烈度、地层岩性、地形坡度及海拔高程等影响因素的关系,得出以下认识:1研究区地震地质灾害主要分布于发震断裂两侧30 km范围内,在区域上表现出沿龙门山中央断裂呈"带状"分布、沿水系呈"线状"或"串状"分布的特征;2地震地质灾害发生的斜坡部位与微地貌形态有着密切的关系,地震地质灾害多沿山脊线或分水岭部位高位分布;3地震地质灾害的发育程度与地震烈度呈正相关关系,地质灾害的发育密度,随着地震烈度等级的降低而降低;4地震地质灾害主要发育在较软岩岩组和坚硬岩岩组内,在地震力作用下,软岩岩组内更容易引发滑坡灾害,崩塌多发育在坚硬岩组内;5在海拔1 000~1 500 m,斜坡坡度30°~50°区域范围内是地质灾害集中发育区,不同坡度范围内,地震地质灾害表现出不同的优势发育类型。     

武汉市外部空间形态分形特征演变规律研究

城市外部空间形态是城市空间要素自组织演变的外在表现,合理的外部空间形态有利于城市组成要素及其资源环境的稳定发展。空间形态的分维数在不同时间尺度上有其发展演变的规律,分维数的变化与人类活动有着密切的关系。以武汉市建国以来不同时段的城市外部形态为例,在GIS环境下研究外部形态信息图谱,提取各时期的分维数和人口、面积的统计数据,经拟合发现城市规模与外部形态分维数有密切的函数关系,并在此基础上建立“形态描述函数”,提出在城市发展时期,分维数可作为城市面积和人口规模的指示器,来预测城市空间扩展和演变的程度,以及利用分维数与社会经济因素的相关关系可以深入分析城市空间形态的发展机理。     

REAL CODED GENETIC ALGORITHM OPTIMIZATION OF LONG TERM RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: An optimization and simulation model holds promise as an efficient and robust method for long term reservoir operation, an increasingly important facet of managing water resources. Recently, genetic algorithms have been demonstrated to be highly effective optimization methods. According to previous studies, a real coded genetic algorithm (RGA) has many advantages over a binary coded genetic algorithm. Accordingly, this work applies an RGA to obtain the 10‐day (the traditional period of reservoir operation in Taiwan) operating rule curves for the proposed reservoir system. The RGA is combined with an effective and flexible scheme for coding the reservoir rule curves and applied to an important reservoir in Taiwan, considering a water reservoir development scenario to the year 2021. Each rule curve is evaluated using a complex simulation model to determine a performance index for a given flow series. The process of generating and evaluating decision parameters is repeated until no further improvement in performance is obtained. Many experiments were performed to determine the suitable RGA components, including macro evolutionary (ME) selection and blend‐α crossover. Macro evolution (ME) can be applied to prevent the premature problem of the conventional selection scheme of genetic algorithm. The purpose of adjusting a of a crossover scheme is to determine the exploratory or exploitative degree of various subpopulations. The appropriate rule curve searched by an RGA can minimize the water deficit and maintain the high water level of the reservoir. The results also show that the most promising RGA for this problem consists of these revised operators significantly improves the performance of a system. It is also very efficient for optimizing other highly nonlinear systems.     

三峡库区堆存垃圾浸出污染物的水质影响模拟

以三峡库区坝前水位135～175m范围的生活垃圾为研究对象,调查分析了其堆存量、空间分布和理化特性;通过污染物溶出动态模拟和放大实验研究,估算了生活垃圾中有机污染物的溶出源强,并运用河流岸边稳态衰减模式计算了不同处置方案对库区水质的影响程度.针对基准方案和135m蓄水期处置方案,分别对库区局部河段水质和干流水质的影响进行了分析比较.结果表明,若采用基准方案,即将淹没区内约600×104t的生活垃圾就地处置,淹没于水中,将会对库区水质安全构成较大的威胁;若采用135m蓄水期处置方案,则水体中CODcr值增加不超过0.03mg·L-1,对库区干流水质的影响较小.     

Spatiotemporal trends of illegal activities from ranger‐collected data in a Ugandan national park

Within protected areas, biodiversity loss is often a consequence of illegal resource use. Understanding the patterns and extent of illegal activities is therefore essential for effective law enforcement and prevention of biodiversity declines. We used extensive data, commonly collected by ranger patrols in many protected areas, and Bayesian hierarchical models to identify drivers, trends, and distribution of multiple illegal activities within the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area (QECA), Uganda. Encroachment (e.g., by pastoralists with cattle) and poaching of noncommercial animals (e.g., snaring bushmeat) were the most prevalent illegal activities within the QECA. Illegal activities occurred in different areas of the QECA. Poaching of noncommercial animals was most widely distributed within the national park. Overall, ecological covariates, although significant, were not useful predictors for occurrence of illegal activities. Instead, the location of illegal activities in previous years was more important. There were significant increases in encroachment and noncommercial plant harvesting (nontimber products) during the study period (1999–2012). We also found significant spatiotemporal variation in the occurrence of all activities. Our results show the need to explicitly model ranger patrol effort to reduce biases from existing uncorrected or capture per unit effort analyses. Prioritization of ranger patrol strategies is needed to target illegal activities; these strategies are determined by protected area managers, and therefore changes at a site‐level can be implemented quickly. These strategies should also be informed by the location of past occurrences of illegal activity: the most useful predictor of future events. However, because spatial and temporal changes in illegal activities occurred, regular patrols throughout the protected area, even in areas of low occurrence, are also required.     

The switching effect of environmental taxation within Bertrand differentiated duopoly

We investigate second-best optimal taxation of the polluting variety of a product in a Bertrand duopoly with differentiated varieties. The analysis provides novel insight on a useful social function of environmental regulation. Besides internalizing the environmental externality, the taxation of the polluting variety improves the matching of consumers and product varieties, and so creates a socially desirable business switching between the differentiated varieties.     

不停产检修曝气系统在污水处理中的应用

本文介绍了在污水处理中好氧阶段的可不停产检修的曝气系统，重点阐述了实现不停产检修的曝气系统的曝气器选用及下垂式曝气系统、上浮式曝气平台、漂浮式曝气悬链三种布气装置。该技术能够实现污水处理厂的不停产检修，保证污水处理设施的连续运行，具有很高的推广价值。     

基于模糊粗糙集的化工园区多米诺事故救援时机分析

本文旨在通过粗糙集约简手段研究化工园区多米诺事故救援时机问题。首先将初始事故等级、间距系数、环境等级、临近企业脆弱性、初始事故发生时间等5个因素作为多米诺事故发生条件,应用Kmeans聚类方法实现模糊粗糙集数据离散化,之后应用属性约简及属性值约简方法分析案例信息,最后提取规则并从以上5个因素角度确定火灾多米诺事故的救援最佳时机,结果表明救援规则简洁明了,可执行性较高。     

我国应急体系建设中的问题探讨与对策

近年来,紧急突发公共事件在国内外频频发生,如何应对紧急突发事件是目前急需解决的问题.我国在这方面已经进行了一些研究,建立了初步的应急体制,取得了阶段性的成果.但普遍存在危机意识薄弱、预案编制存在漏洞、专业人才缺乏、应急协调机制不健全等问题.为了进一步健全应急管理,加强应急管理工作制度建设,必须强化应急教育和培训、加强应急管理人才队伍建设、建立通畅灵敏的应急管理信息系统等几项措施,从而切实提高我国的应急体系建设水平.     

湿热处理餐厨废弃物不饱和脂肪酸

为了研究湿热水解技术对餐厨废弃物中脂类物质的影响,促进餐厨废弃物的资源化处理利用,通过实验研究,分析了餐厨废弃物固相中油酸、亚油酸、α-亚麻酸和花生四烯酸4种不饱和脂肪酸在90～140℃湿热条件下处理随时间的变化规律。结果表明：实验所取餐厨废弃物经湿热处理后固相中油酸和亚油酸的含量相对较高,约为30％,花生四烯酸的含量较低,约为0．3％,随着加热时间延长,亚油酸在湿热环境下发生化学分解,其含量不断降低,而花生四烯酸的含量显著增加。当加热温度为100～120℃,加热时间为30-60min时,餐厨废弃物脂类含量比较稳定,作为适宜的湿热处理条件。值得注意的是,湿热处理后的餐厨废弃物中花生四烯酸的含量只约为0．3％,不能满足饲料标准中2％的要求。