Bayesian Decision Analysis for Evaluating Management Options to Promote Recovery of a Depleted Salmon Population

Abstract:  The endangered population of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Cultus Lake, British Columbia, Canada, migrates through commercial fishing areas along with other, much more abundant sockeye salmon populations, but it is not feasible to selectively harvest only the latter, abundant populations. This situation creates controversial trade-offs between recovery actions and economic revenue. We conducted a Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate options for recovery of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We used a stochastic population model that included 2 sources of uncertainty that are often omitted from such analyses: structural uncertainty in the magnitude of a potential Allee effect and implementation uncertainty (the deviation between targets and actual outcomes of management actions). Numerous state-dependent, time-independent management actions meet recovery objectives. These actions prescribe limitations on commercial harvest rates as a function of abundance of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We also quantified how much reduction in economic value of commercial harvests of the more abundant sockeye salmon populations would be expected for a given increase in the probability of recovery of the Cultus population. Such results illustrate how Bayesian decision analysis can rank options for dealing with conservation risks and can help inform trade-off discussions among decision makers and among groups that have competing objectives.     

太原地区大气污染物输送特征分析

使用太原地区历史气候资料讨论了太原市大气污染物向外输送的规律.通过对飞机航测、地面监测和低空同步气象观测资料的综合研究,对太原市大气污染物向太原盆地中、南部的输送通道和SO2向气溶胶转化等方面提出了进一步的认识.     

有效提高英语水平的一种途径--识记

本文针对大学生在英语学习过程中出现的识记能力差,贬低记忆作用的偏见,提出教学中应帮助学生了解和掌握记忆规律,提倡识记词汇、句法、段落或课文,有助于提高学生听、阅读和写作能力.     

污水厂出水及下游大沽排污河磷形态及浓度变化规律研究

为分析研究不同污水厂出水及下游排污河磷形态及浓度的变化规律,2014年3-8月对污水厂A、B出水及其排污河下游与大沽排污河5个点位水体中的总磷(TP)、溶解性总磷(TDP)、溶解性无机磷(DIP)、溶解性有机磷(DOP)、颗粒态磷(PP)进行了动态监测。结果表明,各点位水体均以DIP为主,污水厂A出水TP变化范围为0.27~2.31 mg/L,均值为1.04 mg/L,下游各形态磷浓度低于出水浓度,污水厂B出水TP浓度范围为0.10~3.12 mg/L,均值为0.49 mg/L,下游各形态磷浓度除DOP外均高于出水浓度。大沽排污河的总磷浓度变化范围为0.60~6.26 mg/L,均值为1.82 mg/L。其他外源磷输入对大沽排污河磷形态及浓度影响大于污水厂。     

基于电阻率法的垃圾渗滤液渗漏及迁移规律动态监测技术探讨

为探讨垃圾渗滤液侵入地下介质的动态变化过程,引入基于电阻率法原理的地球物理探测手段,开展室内和室外渗滤液污染扩散的动态监测试验。结果表明,渗滤液在土壤中的扩散过程会引起不同时期视电阻率低阻异常区的动态变化,且变化幅度和污染程度存在一定量化关系,基于此特征可确定渗漏点和渗滤液扩散区的污染范围、程度及趋势。     

移动危险源事故统计分析及发生规律探讨

每年有大量的危险化学品需要运输,这些可移动危险源发生的事故越来越频繁,已严重影响到社会公共安全。收集整理了从2006年1月-2010年10月间的408起移动危险源事故案例,从事故发生的日期、路段、车辆类型、地区、原因、危险物品种类等方面进行统计分析,总结移动危险源事故特点,分析事故的内在规律和发生原因,并根据分析的结果结合我国目前的实际情况,提出相关的安全管理措施及建议。     

环保投资增长规律及其模型研究

本文从国内外环保投资的实践入手,分析和总结出环保投资长期增长规律,并依据环境－经济－社会的技术经济关系,建立起“污染平衡方程式”,从理论上对该规律进行了证明,这样旨在为环保投资决策 参考依据,使其科学化和合理化,从而促进环境与经济的协调发展,保证我国可持续发展战略的顺利实施。     

Association analysis of accident factors in petrochemical storage tank farms

In order to identify and clarify the association between the factors leading to accidents in a petrochemical tank area, this study analyzes investigation reports of 212 petrochemical tank farm accidents and combines this with the “association rule” mining and science related to complex networks. The main risk factors are determined and a risk factor data set is constructed; 75 association rules are extracted from the factor data set based on the Apriori algorithm. Then the obtained association rules are used to construct an accident factors network of the petrochemical storage tank area, and the topology characteristics of the network are further analyzed to reveal the importance of factors. Factors with large node degree, betweenness, and clustering coefficients are obtained, such as “violation of operating regulations”, “high concentration of flammable gas in the air”, “lack of experience and professional skills”, etc. These factors play an important role in the formation and development of accidents. The results also show that the accident cause network of the petrochemical storage tank area has a small average shortest path length and a large cluster coefficient, indicating a relatively close connection between the accident factors. The contributions of this study is not only extracting the hidden relationships among contributory factors to tank farm accidents using association analysis, but also revealing which factors are more important for the tank farm safety through the complex network.     

Specimen‐Based Modeling,Stopping Rules,and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Abstract: Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co‐occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo‐referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10^?5, with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1–3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.     

图像挖掘技术在林火影像中的应用

提出了林火遥感图像挖掘的概念,描述了图像挖掘技术在林火遥感图像上的具体应用及实现,针对林火部门每天产生并存储的有价值的林火遥感图像,结合林火上所特有的领域知识,提出了一种通过对林火遥感图像进行图像挖掘,可以将林火遥感图像分成有火或无火两类图像的方法。该方法的实现对帮助林火工作人员及早发现火情,做出火灾预测并采取相应措施具有重大的意义。