COMPARISON OF PROCESS‐BASED AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACHES FOR STREAMFLOW MODELING IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in simulating hydrologic response was assessed in an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania. All of the performance evaluation measures including Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) and coefficient of determination (R²) suggest that the ANN monthly predictions were closer to the observed flows than the monthly predictions from the SWAT model. More specifically, monthly streamflow E and R² were 0.54 and 0.57, respectively, for the SWAT model calibration period, and 0.71 and 0.75, respectively, for the ANN model training period. For the validation period, these values were ?0.17 and 0.34 for the SWAT and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ANN model. SWAT model performance was affected by snowmelt events during winter months and by the model's inability to adequately simulate base flows. Even though this and other studies using ANN models suggest that these models provide a viable alternative approach for hydrologic and water quality modeling, ANN models in their current form are not spatially distributed watershed modeling systems. However, considering the promising performance of the simple ANN model, this study suggests that the ANN approach warrants further development to explicitly address the spatial distribution of hydrologic/water quality processes within watersheds.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT1

ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.     

EFFECTS OF SLUDGE AND CHEMICAL FERTILIZER APPLICATION ON RUNOFF WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Simulated rainfall was used on experimental field plots to compare the effect of chemical fertilizer and sludge application on sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus in runoff from no-till and conventional tillage systems. Chemical fertilizer application under the no-till system resulted in the least amount of total N and P in surface runoff. However, sludge application under the no-till system resulted in the least amount of NO₃-N and sediment in surface runoff. The worst water quality scenarios were observed when either sludge or chemical fertilizer were surface-applied under a conventional tillage system. Nitrogen losses from the conventional tillage system were minimized when sludge was incorporated into the soil. However, phosphorus and sediment yield from such a system were significantly higher when compared to phosphorus and sediment yield from the no-till system. The results from this study indicate that the use of sludge on agricultural land under a no-till system can be a viable alternative to chemical fertilizer for nitrogen and phosphorus control in runoff. A more cautious approach is recommended when the sludge is incorporated into the soil in a conventional tillage system because of potential for high sediment and phosphorus yield in surface runoff.     

CONCENTRATIONS OF POLLUTANTS IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT. .Eighteen rural lakes in Lubbock County were sampled on a routine basis following runoff-producing rainfall for a period of approximately eighteen months to determine whether or not runoff from intensively farmed agricultural areas contained significant concentrations of nitrates, phosphates, herbicides, or insecticides. An additional fifteen lakes lying within a triangle bounded by the cities of Plainview, Canyon, and Hereford, Texas, were sampled one time during the summer of 1969 to provide additional data regarding the nature and extent of the potential problem in an area with a different soil type and a slightly different cropping pattern. Based on results of detailed analyses of approximately two hundred samples of water collected from the lakes and an equal number of sediment samples collected from the same lakes at the same time, it appears that the concentrations of all chemical pollutants in runoff from agricultural lands in the High Plains are well below the allowable concentrations for drinking water.     

THE WATERSHED IN PRINCIPLE1

Three fundamental concepts linking drainage basin characteristics, stream behavior, and management of watersheds are deduced from field data and observations. An electrical analogy of a watershed clarifies definitions and broadens understanding of this complex natural resource. The three basic principles deal with (1) the interrelationships of watershed morphology, constitution, and appearance; (2) the nature of the control man can exert over runoff-influencing forces, and (3) the efficiency of watershed management efforts. Recognition of these principles can assist educators, managers, planners and researchers to more fully inform students and to more effectively guide and evaluate management decisions.     

北京沙尘天气与源地气象条件的关系

本介绍了影响北京地区沙尘天气的沙尘源地,沙尘暴发生的条件和传输路径,分析了沙尘暴源地的气候要素特征及其对北京地区沙尘天气的影响,说明了北京沙尘天气发生和加剧的原因,影响北京地区沙尘天气的境外源地主要位于哈萨克斯坦,俄罗斯以及蒙古国境内,境内源地主要位于内蒙古和新疆,以及甘肃和青海的部分地区,沙尘天气发生必须具备三个条件：沙源,大风,气流辐合（垂直对流）,有沙源不一定起沙,但无沙源一定不起沙,沙尘暴源地的气候特征主要表现为冬季寒冷,夏季炎热,全年降水稀水,影响北京的沙尘传输路径,最主要的有两条,即西路传输和北路传输,北京沙尘天气与沙尘暴源地的春季降水比较结果表明,北京地区沙尘暴和浮尘天气发生次数与沙尘源区春季大气降水量有比较显的负相关关系,北京扬沙天气的发生与沙源区冬春季降水量相关关系不显,说明北京扬沙天气起因与源区降水没有明显的关系,北京扬沙天气主要受本地的自然条件和人为活动的影响。     

Characterization of Dust Storms to Hong Kong in April 1998

In April 1998, two intense dust storms were generated in CentralAsia and transported eastward across East Asia (15 and 19 April). This article presents the chemical characterization ofHong Kong (HK) aerosols during the dust storms. During the 15 Aprildust storm, hourly respiratory suspended particles (RSP)(particle diameter smaller than 10 m) concentrationsmonitored at 7 sites in Hong Kong reached the peak valuessynchronously between 9 and 11 a.m. on 17 April, in which thehighest concentration was 267 g m^-3. Analysis ofthe RSP samples showed that concentrations of crustalelements (Ba, Ca, Cd, Cr, Fe, Mg, K⁺) and anthropogenicspecies (As, Ni, Pb, Zn, NH₄ ⁺, NO₃ ^-,SO₄ ^2- and total carbon) were substantiallyenhanced. Enhancement of these species was more than afactor of 2 to 14 relative to the non dust period. The totalcarbon content was high, at 59 g m^-3 (notincluding carbonate), and the enrichment factors of Asand Pb on 17 April were 122 and 117, respectively. Thisimplied that anthropogenic materials together with mineraldust were transported to HK from Mainland China. Based onmaterial balance calculations, mineral dust contributed41% to the observed RSP mass on 17 April, which was 2 times thatof the nondust sample (22%). From the 5-day backwardtrajectory analysis, this storm was transported directlyfrom Northwest China to HK. However, there was nocorresponding observation for the 19 April dust stormaerosol. Consequently, 15 April storm had stronger impact onHK's atmosphere than 19 April storm. Compared to the HK AirQuality Objective, 15 April dust storm did not cause seriousair pollution in HK.     

Quantitative Assessment of Agricultural Runoff and Soil Erosion Using Mathematical Modeling: Applications in the Mediterranean Region

Three mathematical models, the runoff curve number equation, the universal soil loss equation, and the mass response functions, were evaluated for predicting nonpoint source nutrient loading from agricultural watersheds of the Mediterranean region. These methodologies were applied to a catchment, the gulf of Gera Basin, that is a typical terrestrial ecosystem of the islands of the Aegean archipelago. The calibration of the model parameters was based on data from experimental plots from which edge-of-field losses of sediment, water runoff, and nutrients were measured. Special emphasis was given to the transport of dissolved and solid-phase nutrients from their sources in the farmers' fields to the outlet of the watershed in order to estimate respective attenuation rates. It was found that nonpoint nutrient loading due to surface losses was high during winter, the contribution being between 50% and 80% of the total annual nutrient losses from the terrestrial ecosystem. The good fit between simulated and experimental data supports the view that these modeling procedures should be considered as reliable and effective methodological tools in Mediterranean areas for evaluating potential control measures, such as management practices for soil and water conservation and changes in land uses, aimed at diminishing soil loss and nutrient delivery to surface waters. Furthermore, the modifications of the general mathematical formulations and the experimental values of the model parameters provided by the study can be used in further application of these methodologies in watersheds with similar characteristics.     

Use of Streamflow Data to Estimate Base Flow/Ground‐Water Recharge For Wisconsin1

Abstract: The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow‐gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base‐flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970‐99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow‐gaging stations that had long‐term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple‐regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low‐flow partial‐record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base‐flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins.