Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

硫氧同位素解析典型岩溶地下河流域硫酸盐季节变化特征和来源

全球约1/4的饮用水源为岩溶水,但岩溶含水层极易遭受人类活动污染.以八步地下河为例,利用硫酸盐（SO₄^2-）浓度、硫氧同位素（δ³⁴S-SO₄和δ¹⁸O-SO₄）和水中氧同位素（δ¹⁸O-H₂O）研究岩溶小流域SO₄^2-的丰、枯水期两个季节变化特征和来源.结果表明：①受酸性矿坑水（acid mine drainage,AMD）直接影响的采样点SO₄^2-浓度较高（≥250 mg·L^-1）,枯水期>丰水期,其他采样点浓度季节变化相对较弱且浓度低.②地表水丰水期δ³⁴S-SO₄与δ¹⁸O-SO₄平均值分别为-10.5‰和4.7‰,枯水期为-11.5‰和1.3‰;地下水丰水期δ³⁴S-SO₄与δ¹⁸O-SO₄平均值分别为-2.9‰和7.1‰,枯水期为-3.2‰和6.2‰.地表水和地下水中δ³⁴S-SO₄与δ¹⁸O-SO₄值都存在丰水期偏重、枯水期偏轻的特征.③丰、枯水期流域内地表水和地下水中各采样点δ³⁴S-SO₄值变化不明显,表明在特定的采样点SO₄^2-的来源相对稳定.④地表水和地下水中SO₄^2-主要来源于雨水、硫化物和石膏,地下河出口各来源丰水期所占的比例分别为13%、40%和47%,枯水期为18%、39%和43%.     

Reach‐Scale Geomorphic and Biological Effects of Localized Streambank Armoring

Armoring of streambanks is a common management response to perceived threats to adjacent infrastructure from flooding or erosion. Despite their pervasiveness, effects of reach‐scale bank armoring have received less attention than those of channelization or watershed‐scale hydromodification. In this study, we explored mechanistic ecosystem responses to armoring by comparing conditions upstream, within, and downstream of six stream reaches with bank armoring in Southern California. Assessments were based on four common stream‐channel assessment methods: (1) traditional geomorphic measures, (2) the California Rapid Assessment Method for wetlands, (3) bioassessment with benthic macroinvertebrates, and (4) bioassessment with stream algae. Although physical responses varied among stream types (mountain, transitional, and lowland), armored segments generally had lower slopes, more and deeper pools and fewer riffles, and increased sediment deposition. Several armored segments exhibited channel incision and bank toe failure. All classes of biological indicators showed subtle, mechanistic responses to physical changes. However, extreme heterogeneity among sites, the presence of catchment‐scale disturbances, and low sample size made it difficult to ascribe observed patterns solely to channel armoring. The data suggest that species‐level or functional group‐level metrics may be more sensitive tools than integrative indices of biotic integrity to local‐scale effects.     

Characterization of Storm Flow Dynamics of Headwater Streams in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain1

Epps, Thomas H., Daniel R. Hitchcock, Anand D. Jayakaran, Drake R. Loflin, Thomas M. Williams, and Devendra M. Amatya, 2012. Characterization of Storm Flow Dynamics of Headwater Streams in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12000 Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring was conducted in two first‐order lower coastal plain watersheds in South Carolina, United States, a region with increasing growth and land use change. Storm events over a three‐year period were analyzed for direct runoff coefficients (ROC) and the total storm response (TSR) as percent rainfall. ROC calculations utilized an empirical hydrograph separation method that partitioned total streamflow into sustained base flow and direct runoff components. ROC ratios ranged from 0 to 0.32 on the Upper Debidue Creek (UDC) watershed and 0 to 0.57 on Watershed 80 (WS80); TSR results ranged from 0 to 0.93 at UDC and 0.01 to 0.74 at WS80. Variability in event runoff generation was attributed to seasonal trends in water table elevation fluctuation as regulated by evapotranspiration. Groundwater elevation breakpoints for each watershed were identified based on antecedent water table elevation, streamflow, ROCs, and TSRs. These thresholds represent the groundwater elevation above which event runoff generation increased sharply in response to rainfall. For effective coastal land use decision making, baseline watershed hydrology must be understood to serve as a benchmark for management goals, based on both seasonal and event‐based surface and groundwater interactions.     

Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis1

Hester, Erich T. and Martin W. Doyle, 2011. Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):571‐587. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00525.x Abstract: Land‐use change and water resources management increasingly impact stream and river temperatures and therefore aquatic organisms. Efforts at thermal mitigation are expected to grow in future decades. Yet the biological consequences of both human thermal impacts and proposed mitigation options are poorly quantified. This study provides such context for river thermal management in two ways. First, we summarize the full spectrum of human thermal impacts to help thermal managers consider the relative magnitudes of all impacts and mitigation options. Second, we synthesize biological sensitivity to river temperature shifts using thermal performance curves, which relate organism‐level biological processes to temperature. This approach supplements the popular use of thermal thresholds by directly estimating the impact of temperature shifts on the rates of key biological processes (e.g., growth). Our results quantify a diverse array of human thermal impacts, revealing that human actions tend to increase more than decrease river temperatures. Our results also provide a practical framework in which to quantify the sensitivity of river organisms to such impacts and related mitigation options. Finally, among the data and studies we synthesized, river organisms appear to be more sensitive to temperature above than below their thermal maxima, and fish are more sensitive to temperature change than invertebrates.     

Comparison of macroinvertebrate community structure in urban (Shenzhen City) streams with typical habitat characteristics北大核心CSCD

2020年12月在深圳市城市区域典型生境特征溪流——城市山区源头溪流金龟河、国家地质公园保护区入海溪流杨梅坑河与黑臭水体治理后溪流石溪河,开展底栖动物多样性与生境质量状况取样,通过多元统计分析探明各溪流底栖动物群落结构差异及其主要环境影响因子.结果表明:(1)金龟河底质异质性(SI)最高;杨梅坑河水质最好且流态异质性(Fr)最优,石溪河水质最差且底质异质性(Fr)最低.(2)共采集鉴定大型底栖动物118个分类单元,隶属于3门6纲14目87科.水生昆虫均占绝对优势,其中金龟河67属(81.7%),杨梅坑河62属(95.4%),石溪河12属(52.2%).金龟河中底栖动物Shannon-Wiener多样性指数、改进的Shannon-Wiener多样性指数、Pielou均匀度均高于杨梅坑河与石溪河.(3)金龟河的主要功能摄食类群是滤食者(45.5%),杨梅坑河(38.3%)与石溪河(58.7%)的主要功能摄食类群均为收集者.(4)冗余分析(RDA)结果显示,氨氮、海拔、湿宽、水温、溶氧、底质异质性(SI)、电导率和流态异质性(Fr)为影响深圳市溪流的大型底栖动物群落结构的主要环境因子.研究表明:(1)深圳市的山区溪流可作为深圳市生物多样性保护的重点区域.(2)在城市溪流生态系统中,水环境化学因子并非为主要影响因子,生境多样性发挥了重要作用.(图6表3参43)     

湍球塔内气流分布优化的数值计算及试验

通过对湍球塔 (TCA)内三维流场的数值计算 ,找到了较佳的结构参数 ,在此基础上进行的试验表明 ,计算结果与试验结果相吻合。计算程序可为 TCA的设计及保证其长期安全经济运行提供理论依据。     

INFLUENCES OF WATERSHED,RIPARIAN‐CORRIDOR,AND REACH‐SCALE CHARACTERISTICS ON AQUATIC BIOTA IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Multivariate analyses and correlations revealed strong relations between watershed and riparian‐corridor land cover, and reach‐scale habitat versus fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages in 38 warmwater streams in eastern Wisconsin. Watersheds were dominated by agricultural use, and ranged in size from 9 to 71 km² Watershed land cover was summarized from satellite‐derived data for the area outside a 30‐m buffer. Riparian land cover was interpreted from digital orthophotos within 10‐, 10‐to 20‐, and 20‐to 30‐m buffers. Reach‐scale habitat, fish, and macroinvertebrates were collected in 1998 and biotic indices calculated. Correlations between land cover, habitat, and stream‐quality indicators revealed significant relations at the watershed, riparian‐corridor, and reach scales. At the watershed scale, fish diversity, intolerant fish and EPT species increased, and Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI) decreased as percent forest increased. At the riparian‐corridor scale, EPT species decreased and HBI increased as riparian vegetation became more fragmented. For the reach, EPT species decreased with embeddedness. Multivariate analyses further indicated that riparian (percent agriculture, grassland, urban and forest, and fragmentation of vegetation), watershed (percent forest) and reach‐scale characteristics (embeddedness) were the most important variables influencing fish (IBI, density, diversity, number, and percent tolerant and insectivorous species) and macroinvertebrate (HBI and EPT) communities.     

EVALUATION OF THE ROSGEN STREAM CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM IN CHEQUAMEGON‐NICOLET NATIONAL FOREST,WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: Data collected from 121 stream reaches during 1991 to 1993 were evaluated to determine the applicability of the Rosgen Stream Classification System (RSCS) to the low relief terrain within the Chequamegon‐Nicolet National Forest (CNNF) in Wisconsin, USA. All reaches were classified to RSCS Level I and II except that 10.7 percent had sinuosities below the continuum limits and one reach had a predominantly organic substrate. Five of eight possible RSCS Level I types were observed including B, C, D, A, E, and F; 86 percent were C and E types. Seventeen of 94 possible RSCS Level II types were observed. Most reaches were slightly entrenched, had low to moderate width/depth ratios, relatively low sinuosity, low slope, and sand or gravel as the dominant channel material. Discriminant analyses were used to verify the applicability of RSCS for streams within the CNNF; discriminant functions correctly classified 92.5 and 94.7 percent of the Level I and II RSCS types, respectively. When limits for E and F types were modified slightly at Level II by adding an additional category for slopes less than 0.1 percent (a modification we recommend for low relief terrain), discriminant functions correctly classified 99.1 percent of the types. Adding another slope break at 0.3 percent produced similar results. Based on our analyses, RSCS works well within the CNNF and is probably applicable to other areas with low‐relief terrain.     

Effects of Riparian Vegetation and Watershed Urbanization on Fishes in Streams of the Mid‐Atlantic Piedmont (USA)1

Abstract: The joint influences of riparian vegetation and urbanization on fish assemblages were analyzed by depletion sampling in paired forested and nonforested reaches of 25 small streams along an urbanization gradient. Nonforested reaches were narrower than their forested counterparts, so densities based on surface area differ from linear densities (based on reach length). Linear densities (based on number or biomass of fish) of American eel, white sucker and tesselated darter, and the proportion of biomass of benthic invertivores were significantly higher in nonforested reaches, while linear densities of margined madtom and the number of pool species were significantly higher in forested reaches. Observed riparian effects may reflect differences in habitat and algal productivity between forested and nonforested reaches. These results suggest that relatively small‐scale riparian restoration projects can affect local geomorphology and the abundance of fish. Dense vegetative cover in riparian zones and similar or analogous habitats in both forested and nonforested reaches, the relatively small scale of the nonforested reaches, and the low statistical power to detect differences in abundance of rare species may have limited the observed differences between forested and nonforested reaches. There was a strong urbanization gradient, with reductions of intolerant species and increases of tolerant species and omnivores with increasing urbanization. Interactions between riparian vegetation type and urbanization were found for blacknose dace, creek chub, tesselated darter, and the proportion of biomass of lithophilic spawners. The study did not provide consistent support for the hypotheses that responses of fish to riparian vegetation would be overwhelmed by urban degradation or insignificant at low urbanization.