Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model1

Moore, R.D. (Dan), J.W. Trubilowicz, and J.M. Buttle, 2011. Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 32‐42. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00595.x Abstract: Prediction of streamflow in ungauged basins is a global challenge, but is particularly an issue in physiographically complex regions like British Columbia (BC), Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of a simple water balance model that can be run using existing spatial datasets. The model was developed by modifying an existing monthly water balance model to account for interception loss from forest canopy, glacier melt, and evaporation from lakes. The model was run using monthly climate normals from the ClimateBC application, which have a horizontal resolution of 400 m. Each ClimateBC grid cell was classified as forest, open land, glacier or water surface based on provincial scale digital maps of biogeoclimatic zones, glaciers, and water. The output was monthly mean runoff from each grid cell. These values were integrated within the catchment boundaries for streams gauged by the Water Survey of Canada. Annual runoff was predicted with modest accuracy: after updating the predicted runoff by interpolating errors from neighboring gauged streams, the mean absolute error was 25.4% of the gauged value, and 52% of the streams had errors less than 20%. However, the model appears to be quite robust in distinguishing between pluvial, hybrid, and melt‐dominated hydroclimatic regimes, and therefore has promise as a tool for catchment classification.     

高压实新疆阿尔泰膨润土微观结构随吸力变化特征

采用压汞法(MIP)和扫描电镜(SEM)法,在自由和侧限状态下,试验研究了高压实新疆阿尔泰膨润土在不同吸力条件下的微观结构变化特征。吸力的控制采用了气相法和渗析(液相)法。研究结果表明:(1)低吸力范围内,自由膨胀和侧限条件下的高压实膨润土土水特征存在明显差异;(2)膨润土在自由和侧限状态下的水化过程中呈现出了截然不同的微结构变化特征。自由膨胀条件下,土的吸水膨胀量主要来自土中大孔隙的逐渐膨胀。侧限状态下,随着控制吸力的降低,膨润土的大孔隙逐渐被压缩,较小孔隙的数量不断增加,土中孔隙分布变得更加均匀。     

Temporal patterns of atmospheric mercury species in northern Mississippi during 2011–2012: Influence of sudden population swings

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) and particulate bound mercury (PBM) were measured on the University of Mississippi campus from July 2011 to June 2012. It is believed to be the first time that concentrations of atmospheric mercury species have been documented in northern Mississippi, and at a location with relatively large and sudden swings in population. The mean concentration (±1SD) of GEM was 1.54 ± 0.32 ng m⁻³; levels were lower and generally more stable during the winter (1.48 ± 0.22) and spring (1.46 ± 0.27) compared with the summer (1.56 ± 0.32) and fall (1.63 ± 0.42). Mean concentrations for GOM and PBM were 3.87 pg m⁻³ and 4.58 pg m⁻³, respectively; levels tended to be highest in the afternoon and lowest in the early morning hours. During the fall and spring academic semesters concentrations and variability of GOM and PBM both increased, possibly from vehicle exhaust. There were moderate negative correlations with wind speed (all species) and humidity (GOM and PBM). Backward air mass trajectory modeling for the ten highest peaks for each mercury species revealed that the majority of these events occurred from air masses that passed through the northern continental US region. Overall, this study illustrates the complexity of temporal fluctuations of airborne mercury species, even in a small town environment.     

Watershed Evapotranspiration Increased due to Changes in Vegetation Composition and Structure Under a Subtropical Climate1

Abstract: Natural forests in southern China have been severely logged due to high human demand for timber, food, and fuels during the past century, but are recovering in the past decade. The objective of this study was to investigate how vegetation cover changes in composition and structure affected the water budgets of a 9.6‐km² Dakeng watershed located in a humid subtropical mountainous region in southern China. We analyzed 27 years (i.e., 1967‐1993) of streamflow and climate data and associated vegetation cover change in the watershed. Land use/land cover census and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from remote sensing were used to construct historic land cover change patterns. We found that over the period of record, annual streamflow (Q) and runoff/precipitation ratio did not change significantly, nor did the climatic variables, including air temperature, Hamon’s potential evapotranspiration (ET), pan evaporation, sunshine hours, and radiation. However, annual ET estimated as the differences between P and Q showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Overall, the NDVI of the watershed had a significant increasing trend in the peak spring growing season. This study concluded that watershed ecosystem ET increased as the vegetation cover shifted from low stock forests to shrub and grasslands that had higher ET rates. A conceptual model was developed for the study watershed to describe the vegetation cover‐streamflow relationships during a 50‐year time frame. This paper highlighted the importance of eco‐physiologically based studies in understanding transitory, nonstationary effects of deforestation or forestation on watershed water balances.     

猛进水库水环境问题研究

猛进水库是五家渠地区的主要水源地,也是乌鲁木齐市重要的淡水鱼供应基地.近年来,猛进水库水质呈不断恶化的趋势,水质为劣V类,为此,猛进水库水质恶化问题已经成为各级政府及公众十分关注的问题.本文选用新疆水环境监测中心多年对猛进水库水质监测及调查的资料,对猛进水库水质现状进行分析评价,运用季节性肯达尔(Kendall)检验等方法,分析了猛进水库水质变化趋势及影响猛进水库水质的主要污染源,提出了进一步保护猛进水库水质的建议,为改善其水环境质量提供依据.     

南通市生态环境遥感监测及其动态变化研究

应用遥感技术对南通市生态环境进行监测,利用GIS技术对遥感监测结果进行解译与分析,同时对2006-2009年南通市生态环境时空动态变化进行了分析与评价.结果表明,南通市生态环境类型以耕地、水域和城乡、工矿、居民用地为主,未利用土地面积极小.其生态环境动态变化的主要特点是耕地面积普遍有小幅度减少,以城镇建设用地为主的城乡、工矿、居民用地增加较多,林地面积无明显变化;未利用土地面积有所减少,以盐碱地面积减少为主,减少的面积主要用于耕地和建设用地.     

Changes in bird‐migration patterns associated with human‐induced mortality

Many bird populations have recently changed their migratory behavior in response to alterations of the environment. We collected data over 16 years on male Great Bustards (Otis tarda), a species showing a partial migratory pattern (sedentary and migratory birds coexisting in the same breeding groups). We conducted population counts and radio tracked 180 individuals to examine differences in survival rates between migratory and sedentary individuals and evaluate possible effects of these differences on the migratory pattern of the population. Overall, 65% of individuals migrated and 35% did not. The average distance between breeding and postbreeding areas of migrant individuals was 89.9 km, and the longest average movement of sedentary males was 3.8 km. Breeding group and migration distance had no effect on survival. However, mortality of migrants was 2.4 to 3.5 times higher than mortality of sedentary birds. For marked males, collision with power lines was the main cause of death from unnatural causes (37.6% of all deaths), and migratory birds died in collisions with power lines more frequently than sedentary birds (21.3% vs 6.3%). The percentage of sedentary individuals increased from 17% in 1997 to 45% in 2012. These results were consistent with data collected from radio‐tracked individuals: The proportion of migratory individuals decreased from 86% in 1997–1999 to 44% in 2006–2010. The observed decrease in the migratory tendency was not related to climatic changes (temperatures did not change over the study period) or improvements in habitat quality (dry cereal farmland area decreased in the main study area). Our findings suggest that human‐induced mortality during migration may be an important factor shaping the migration patterns of species inhabiting humanized landscapes.     

Short-term changes in mobile dunes at Port Alfred,South Africa

Development along the western beachfront of Port Alfred, which is situated along a sandy shoreline, increased markedly in the 1960s as the coastal town became a popular holiday resort. This development included the removal of coastal vegetation, which resulted in the destabilization of dunes and migration of sand westerly onto the road, West Beach parking lot, and lawns of the cabanas. Sand traps were constructed to collect sand blowing across the dunes over set periods, and the net sand movement along the mobile dune belt was calculated using Hunter's equation. The dunes show an easterly movement of sand at a rate of 3.5 m/yr, which is comparable with figures recorded along other areas of this coastline. Considering the wind regime and amount of sand movement along this coast, it is inappropriate to clear vegetation and develop within the dune region.     

IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

A COMPARISON OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION MODELS FOR RESERVOIR CAPACITY-YIELD ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of four streamflow generation schemes for the use in the estimation of the required conservation storage for a single reservoir is presented. The comparison of the generating schemes should aid in the selection of an appropriate model type for the reservoir sizing problem. The streamflow generation models are compared using two criteria. The first comparison is between the statistics of the generated streamflow sequences and the corresponding statistics from the historical record. The second evaluation compares the median reservoir size determined by each model with the required storage based on the historical flow sequence. The results of a comparative analysis for monthly streamflow data for the Rzav River in Yugoslavia are presented and discussed. The results indicate that both evaluation criteria are required to discriminate between the various options.