TRMM 3B42卫星降水数据在赣江流域径流模拟中的应用

以赣江流域为研究区,基于观测降水和TRMM准实时数据(3B42RTV6、3B42RTV7)和分析数据(3B42V6、3B42V7),驱动VIC水文模型,开展卫星降水产品在赣江流域的水文模拟,评估TRMM降水产品在水文模拟中的应用能力。结果表明:(1)在赣江流域,3B42V7估算的降水与实测降水的对比结果最好,3B42RTV6的估算精度最低,3B42RTV7较3B42RTV6在赣江流域的降水估算精度提升非常明显;(2)在径流模拟方面,3B42V6和3B42V7在日尺度上尽管对洪峰的模拟有所偏差,但模拟结果仍能反映径流变化特征,在月尺度上模拟结果精度较高,纳什系数均在0.9以上,并且二者在4、5月的径流模拟结果较好,7、8月的模拟结果较差,而3B42RTV6对径流的模拟能力较差,日径流量和月径流量均呈现明显低估,3B42RTV7对径流的模拟结果比3B42RTV6有明显改善,可以满足实时水文预报的需求。     

Adaptation of Climate Model Projections of Streamflow to Account for Upstream Anthropogenic Impairments

A statistical procedure is developed to adjust natural streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches, to account for anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model. The resulting normalized downstream flows are appropriate for use in assessments of future anthropogenically impaired flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on future water availability on the Rio Grande at a gage just above the major storage reservoir on the river. Model‐simulated streamflow values were normalized using a statistical parameterization based on two constants that relate observed and simulated flows over a 50‐year historical baseline period (1964–2013). The first normalization constant is a ratio of the means, and the second constant is the ratio of interannual standard deviations between annual gaged and simulated flows. This procedure forces the gaged and simulated flows to have the same mean and variance over the baseline period. The normalization constants can be kept fixed for future flows, which effectively assumes that upstream water management does not change in the future, or projected management changes can be parameterized by adjusting the constants. At the gage considered in this study, the effect of the normalization is to reduce simulated historical flow values by an average of 72% over an ensemble of simulations, indicative of the large fraction of natural flow diverted from the river upstream from the gage. A weak tendency for declining flow emerges upon averaging over a large ensemble, with tremendous variability among the simulations. By the end of the 21st Century the higher‐emission scenarios show more pronounced declines in streamflow.     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Does Including Soil Moisture Observations Improve Operational Streamflow Forecasts in Snow‐Dominated Watersheds?

Changing climate and growing water demand are increasing the need for robust streamflow forecasts. Historically, operational streamflow forecasts made by the Natural Resources Conservation Service have relied on precipitation and snow water equivalent observations from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites. We investigate whether also including SNOTEL soil moisture observations improve April‐July streamflow volume forecast accuracy at 0, 1, 2, and 3‐month lead times at 12 watersheds in Utah and California. We found statistically significant improvement in 0 and 3‐month lead time accuracy in 8 of 12 watersheds and 10 of 12 watersheds for 1 and 2‐month lead times. Surprisingly, these improvements were insensitive to soil moisture metrics derived from soil physical properties. Forecasts were made with volumetric water content (VWC) averaged from October 1 to the forecast date. By including VWC at the 0‐month lead time the forecasts explained 7.3% more variability and increased the streamflow volume accuracy by 8.4% on average compared to standard forecasts that already explained an average 77% of the variability. At 1 to 3‐month lead times, the inclusion of soil moisture explained 12.3‐26.3% more variability than the standard forecast on average. Our findings indicate including soil moisture observations increased statistical streamflow forecast accuracy and thus, could potentially improve water supply reliability in regions affected by changing snowpacks.     

MODIS Biophysical States and NEXRAD Precipitation in a Statistical Evaluation of Antecedent Moisture Condition and Streamflow1

Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km² watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r² = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.     

Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model1

Moore, R.D. (Dan), J.W. Trubilowicz, and J.M. Buttle, 2011. Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 32‐42. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00595.x Abstract: Prediction of streamflow in ungauged basins is a global challenge, but is particularly an issue in physiographically complex regions like British Columbia (BC), Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of a simple water balance model that can be run using existing spatial datasets. The model was developed by modifying an existing monthly water balance model to account for interception loss from forest canopy, glacier melt, and evaporation from lakes. The model was run using monthly climate normals from the ClimateBC application, which have a horizontal resolution of 400 m. Each ClimateBC grid cell was classified as forest, open land, glacier or water surface based on provincial scale digital maps of biogeoclimatic zones, glaciers, and water. The output was monthly mean runoff from each grid cell. These values were integrated within the catchment boundaries for streams gauged by the Water Survey of Canada. Annual runoff was predicted with modest accuracy: after updating the predicted runoff by interpolating errors from neighboring gauged streams, the mean absolute error was 25.4% of the gauged value, and 52% of the streams had errors less than 20%. However, the model appears to be quite robust in distinguishing between pluvial, hybrid, and melt‐dominated hydroclimatic regimes, and therefore has promise as a tool for catchment classification.     

Watershed Evapotranspiration Increased due to Changes in Vegetation Composition and Structure Under a Subtropical Climate1

Abstract: Natural forests in southern China have been severely logged due to high human demand for timber, food, and fuels during the past century, but are recovering in the past decade. The objective of this study was to investigate how vegetation cover changes in composition and structure affected the water budgets of a 9.6‐km² Dakeng watershed located in a humid subtropical mountainous region in southern China. We analyzed 27 years (i.e., 1967‐1993) of streamflow and climate data and associated vegetation cover change in the watershed. Land use/land cover census and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from remote sensing were used to construct historic land cover change patterns. We found that over the period of record, annual streamflow (Q) and runoff/precipitation ratio did not change significantly, nor did the climatic variables, including air temperature, Hamon’s potential evapotranspiration (ET), pan evaporation, sunshine hours, and radiation. However, annual ET estimated as the differences between P and Q showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Overall, the NDVI of the watershed had a significant increasing trend in the peak spring growing season. This study concluded that watershed ecosystem ET increased as the vegetation cover shifted from low stock forests to shrub and grasslands that had higher ET rates. A conceptual model was developed for the study watershed to describe the vegetation cover‐streamflow relationships during a 50‐year time frame. This paper highlighted the importance of eco‐physiologically based studies in understanding transitory, nonstationary effects of deforestation or forestation on watershed water balances.     

IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

A COMPARISON OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION MODELS FOR RESERVOIR CAPACITY-YIELD ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of four streamflow generation schemes for the use in the estimation of the required conservation storage for a single reservoir is presented. The comparison of the generating schemes should aid in the selection of an appropriate model type for the reservoir sizing problem. The streamflow generation models are compared using two criteria. The first comparison is between the statistics of the generated streamflow sequences and the corresponding statistics from the historical record. The second evaluation compares the median reservoir size determined by each model with the required storage based on the historical flow sequence. The results of a comparative analysis for monthly streamflow data for the Rzav River in Yugoslavia are presented and discussed. The results indicate that both evaluation criteria are required to discriminate between the various options.     

MANAGEMENT OF INSTREAM FLOWS THROUGH RUNOFF DETENTION AND RETENTION1

ABSTRACT: The use of reservoirs and land treatments to manage streamflow for the maintenance or enhancement of instream flow values is a valid concept. Historically, large reservoirs have been used for flood control and water-supply regulation. Smaller structures have enjoyed widespread use for soil and water conservation in headwater areas. Where reservoir releases can be controlled, it is technically feasible to regulate flows for the enhancement of instream values. However, institutional and political obstacles may preclude the operation of some reservoirs for this purpose. Retention and detention structures and land treatments, implemented for soil and water conservation purposes, have often had favorable effects on the streamflow hydrograph. Decreases in peak flows and increases in low flows have been documented. Design concepts for runoff-control structures are discussed in relation to instream flow management objectives. Hydro-logic simulation is offered as a potential tool for project design and feasibility analysis.