DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF A SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTING TECHNIQUE1

ABSTRACT: The snowmelt-runoff model (SRM) was used to produce accurate simulations of streamfiow during the snowmelt period (April-September) for ten years on the Rio Grande Basin (3419 km²) near Del Norte, Colorado, U.S.A. In order to use SRM in the forecast situation, it was necessary to develop a family of snow cover depletion curves for each elevation zone based on accumulated snow water equivalent on April 1. Selection of an appropriate curve for a particular year from snow course measurements allows input of the daily snow cover extent to SRM for forecast purposes. Data from three years (1980, 1981, and 1985) were used as a quasi-forecast test of the procedure. In these years forecasted snow cover extent data were input to SRM, but observed temperature and precipitation data were used. The resulting six-month hydrographs were very similar to the hydrographs in the ten simulation years previously tested based on comparisons of performance evaluation criteria. Based on this result, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) requested SRM forecasts for 1987 on the Rio Grande. Using the same procedure but with SCS estimated temperature and precipi-tation data, SRM produced a forecast hydrograph that had a r²= 0.82 and difference in seasonal volume of 4.4 percent. To approximate actual operational conditions, SRM computed daily flows were updated every seven days with measured flows. The resulting forecast hydrograph had a R²= 0.90 and a difference in volume of 3.5 percent. The method developed needs to be refined and tested on additional years and basins, but the approach appears to be applicable to operational runoff forecasting using remote sensing data.     

COS,CS2 and SO2 in aluminium smelter exhaust

Measurements of carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbondisulfide (CS₂) were carried out on samples drawn from a smoke stack of an aluminium smelter. Volume mixing ratios of 6 ppm COS and 0.1 ppm CS₂ were measured for gases from the electrolysis unit that had previously passed an Al₂O₃ fluid bed reactor and electrostatic precipitators. Specific emissions of 1.6 kg COS and 0.03 kg CS₂ per ton of primary aluminium were found. Extrapolating from this particular smelter’s conditions to a world mix specific COS emissions of about 4 kg/t(Al) are calculated resulting in emissions of annually 0.08 Tg COS into the atmosphere due to electrolytic aluminium production in 1995. Besides the photochemical conversion of anthropogenic CS₂ aluminium production is established to be the second major industrial source of COS probably exceeding automotive tire wear’s and coal combustion’s contributions.     

煤炭开发影响地下水资源环境研究一例--平顶山市石龙区贫水化的原因分析

研究了石龙区大规模煤炭开发40余年来地下水水位和水化学场的变化及其原因。从地下水资源量和地下水水质两个方面探讨煤矿开采对本区水资源环境的破坏机理，为矿区生态环境综合整治提供依据。     

Streamflow Forecasting Using Singular Value Decomposition and Support Vector Machine for the Upper Rio Grande River Basin

The current study improves streamflow forecast lead‐time by coupling climate information in a data‐driven modeling framework. The spatial–temporal correlation between streamflow and oceanic–atmospheric variability represented by sea surface temperature (SST), 500‐mbar geopotential height (Z₅₀₀), 500‐mbar specific humidity (SH₅₀₀), and 500‐mbar east–west wind (U₅₀₀) of the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean is obtained through singular value decomposition (SVD). SVD significant regions are weighted using a nonparametric method and utilized as input in a support vector machine (SVM) framework. The Upper Rio Grande River Basin (URGRB) is selected to test the applicability of the proposed model for the period of 1965–2014. The April–August streamflow volume is forecasted using previous year climate variability, creating a lagged relationship of 1–13 months. SVD results showed the streamflow variability was better explained by SST and U₅₀₀ as compared to Z₅₀₀ and SH₅₀₀. The SVM model showed satisfactory forecasting ability with best results achieved using a one‐month lead to forecast the following four‐month period. Overall, the SVM results showed excellent predictive ability with average correlation coefficient of 0.89 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.79. This study contributes toward identifying new SVD significant regions and improving streamflow forecast lead‐time of the URGRB.     

降水与农业种植变化对黄河流域径流影响研究

黄河是我国西北、华北地区重要水源,了解其径流变化特征及成因有着重要意义。论文基于趋势性分析、广义可加模型（GAMLSS）等方法,采用黄河流域近60 a来流量、降水、主要农业种植面积及大型水库资料等数据,通过细化农业小麦生长期与玉米和大豆生长期以及假定不同降水情景,在季节尺度上深入分析了1960—2005年黄河流域气候、农业种植面积等变化对径流的影响。研究结果表明：1）黄河流域5个水文站点小麦生长期与玉米和大豆生长期径流变异点均发生于20世纪80年代中后期和90年代初期,且除花园口站小麦生长期间径流有少部分呈上升趋势外,黄河流域径流整体呈下降趋势,其中,唐乃亥、兰州的小麦生长期、玉米和大豆生长期及龙门、花园口的玉米和大豆生长期趋势均达到了0.05的显著性水平,呈显著下降趋势;2）对比两种降水假设状态,暴雨年的径流始终高于小雨年的径流,因此,降水仍是影响径流的主要因子之一,而农业种植面积变化对径流的影响程度,不仅与降水量的多少有关,还与流量分位数的大小有关,对于唐乃亥站小麦生长期的暴雨年时期,增加农作物种植面积,在低流量分位数时可以增加径流,而在高于0.75分位数时会减小径流,小雨年时期规律相反。该研究结果对变化环境下黄河流域水资源管理与优化配置具有一定理论与现实意义。     

Self‐leadership in the context of part‐time teleworking

Employees who work periodically in both a traditional office and home office (part‐time teleworkers) face opportunities and risks related to both working locations. As self‐leadership might play a crucial role in this context, we examined within‐person variations in self‐leadership (self‐reward, self‐punishment, self‐cueing, self‐goal setting, imagining successful performance, and evaluation of beliefs and assumptions) on home days and office days. In a typical workweek, 195 part‐time teleworkers filled out daily surveys (729 days), and we examined the relationship between working location (office and home) and self‐leading behavior as well as the mediating role of autonomy. Finally, we investigated whether self‐leading behavior relates to ego depletion and work satisfaction at the end of the working day. Multilevel analyses revealed that part‐time teleworkers reported higher use of self‐reward, self‐goal setting, and visualization of successful performance on home days than on office days. The association between working location and self‐reward, self‐goal setting, visualization of successful performance, and evaluation of beliefs and assumptions was mediated by autonomy. There were no indirect effects of working location on ego depletion through self‐leadership. However, we found that on home days, part‐time teleworkers were more satisfied with their job at the end of the workday through self‐goal setting.     

Depletion of forest resources in south eastern Nigeria: who loses?

Forest management in south eastern Nigeria has changed hands from the forest communities to foreign technology. As a result the sustainable, conservative and cyclical use that characterised the communities that lived in balance with their forest resources are no longer practised. Consequently, a great deal of the region's valuable timber trees has been lost and the environmental influences of the forest grossly reduced. The local communities have not only been deprived of a multitude of non-timber forest resources upon which they depend for their survival and well-being but have also lost their knowledge of traditional forest management. Although these consequences are far-reaching, the neglected majority in the rural areas bear the brunt. To save what is left of the once vast forest areas, communities in and around the biome need to be empowered to manage their forest resources. Empowerment will challenge their responsibility and their ability to function for the common good—themselves, the State and the world at large.     

Relations between Conspecific Density and Effects of Ultraviolet‐B Radiation on Tadpole Size in the Striped Marsh Frog

Global increases in ultraviolet‐B radiation (UVBR) associated with stratospheric ozone depletion are potentially contributing to the decline of numerous amphibian species around the world. Exposure to UVBR alone reduces survival and induces a range of sublethal effects in embryonic and larval amphibians. When additional environmental stressors are present, UVBR can have compounding negative effects. Thus, examination of the effects of UVBR in the absence of other stressors may substantially underestimate its potential to affect amphibians in natural habitats. We examined the independent and interactive effects of increased UVBR and high conspecific density would have embryonic and larval striped marsh frogs (Limnodynastes peronii). We exposed individuals to a factorial combination of low and high UVBR levels and low, medium, and high densities of striped marsh frog tadpoles. The response variables were time to hatching, hatching success, posthatch survival, burst‐swimming performance of tadpoles (maximum instantaneous swim speed following an escape response), and size and morphology of tadpoles. Consistent with results of previous studies, we found that exposure to UVBR alone increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the burst‐swimming performance and size of tadpoles. Similarly, increasing conspecific density increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the size of tadpoles, but had no effect on burst‐swimming performance. The negative effect of UVBR on tadpole size was not apparent at high densities of tadpoles. This result suggests that tadpoles living at higher densities may invest relatively less energy in growth and thus have more energy to repair UVBR‐induced damage. Lower densities of conspecifics increased the negative effects of UVBR on developing amphibians. Thus, low‐density populations, which may include declining populations, may be particularly susceptible to the detrimental effects of increased UVBR and thus may be driven toward extinction faster than might be expected on the basis of results from single‐factor studies. Relaciones entre la Densidad Conespecífica y los Efectos de la Radiación Ultravioleta‐B sobre el Tamaño de Renacuajos de Limnodynastes peronei     

Water Resource Potential in Northern India: Constraints and Analyses of Price and Non-Price Solutions

The paper examines the linkages between water depletion, continuous population growth and economic development viewed primarily as agricultural development. This is done within a framework of a dynamic simulation model of ecological-economic type over extended periods of time. It is found that intensive agriculture, driven by an increase in the cropping intensity as a result of increase in area under paddy crop, has led to an increased gap between the demand for and supply of water resources, in particular subsurface resources. The consequent fall in water table may lead to constraints in the use of water. This has strong inequity implications in the resource use as well as threats to future of agricultural development in the region. It is revealed that a mix of interventions based on price solutions, non-price solutions and institutional set up are decisive in bringing a sustainable development and use of resource. The paper concludes with emphasising the role of state/government in achieving the desired goal.     

EVALUATION OF A STREAM AQUIFER ANALYSIS TEST USING ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS AND FIELD DATA1

ABSTRACT: Considerable advancements have been made in the development of analytical solutions for predicting the effects of pumping wells on adjacent streams and rivers. However, these solutions have not been sufficiently evaluated against field data. The objective of this research is to evaluate the predictive performance of recently proposed analytical solutions for unsteady stream depletion using field data collected during a stream/aquifer analysis test at the Tamarack State Wildlife Area in eastern Colorado. Two primary stream/aquifer interactions exist at the Tamarack site: (1) between the South Platte River and the alluvial aquifer and (2) between a backwater stream and the alluvial aquifer. A pumping test is performed next to the backwater stream channel. Drawdown measured in observation wells is matched to predictions by recently proposed analytical solutions to derive estimates of aquifer and streambed parameters. These estimates are compared to documented aquifer properties and field measured streambed conductivity. The analytical solutions are capable of estimating reasonable values of both aquifer and streambed parameters with one solution capable of simultaneously estimating delayed aquifer yield and stream flow recharge. However, for long term water management, it is reasonable to use simplified analytical solutions not concerned with early‐time delayed yield effects. For this site, changes in the water level in the stream during the test and a varying water level profile at the beginning of the pumping test influence the application of the analytical solutions.