HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models.     

FLOW DURATION CURVES II: A REVIEW OF APPLICATIONS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A streamflow duration curve illustrates the relationship between the frequency and magnitude of streamflow. Flow duration curves have a long history in the field of water-resource engineering and have been used to solve problems in water-quality management, hydropower, instream flow methodologies, water-use planning, flood control, and river and reservoir sedimentation, and for scientific comparisons of streamflow characteristics across watersheds. This paper reviews traditional applications and provides extensions to some new applications, including water allocation, wasteload allocation, river and wetland inundation mapping, and the economic selection of a water-resource project.     

Faunal loss from bushmeat hunting: empirical evidence and policy implications in Bioko Island

Bushmeat market data can be used to detect hunting sustainability by using proxies such as decline in sale volume and price increases over time. Here, we explore these proxies for the Malabo market in Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, the main bushmeat sale centre for the island. We gathered data during two sample phases (we call these ‘early’ and ‘later’) between March 1996 and October 1998, to test for evidence of faunal depletion during that period. Mammals (ungulates, rodents and primates) made up most of the bushmeat sold. Our analyses confirmed significant and sudden, rather than continuous, declines between phases, in total and individual animal group carcass volumes. Market species composition differed between phases; diversity indices and evenness increased in the later phase of the study. Price was related to species body mass and carcass condition (whether the carcass was smoked or fresh). Most species prices were higher in the later phase of the study. A total of 33 sites contributed bushmeat to the market, with over half of the recorded volume emerging from five sites in the south of the island. Bushmeat volume supplied from different regions of the island varied significantly between phases, and fewer sites contributed animals to the market during the later phase of the study. Proportionately more primates, ungulates but fewer rodents, appeared in the southern samples, compared with the northern. We suggest that in just over 2 years, hunting incursions, especially into the south of the island, may have resulted in drastic faunal losses. Subsequent data, collected by other authors, also indicate that the hunting spurt in the mid- and late-1990s may have irreversibly imperilled the island's mammalian fauna, since numbers of these animals entering the market have not increased since our study period. Although the Equato-Guinean authorities have recently initiated mechanisms to better protect the country's wildlife, through various legal and funding instruments, we suggest that these initiatives are likely to fail, if the social and environmental linkages are not fully understood to guide immediate restoration of such a unique African faunal assemblage.     

Fish Assemblage Responses to Water Withdrawals and Water Supply Reservoirs in Piedmont Streams

Understanding effects of flow alteration on stream biota is essential to developing ecologically sustainable water supply strategies. We evaluated effects of altering flows via surface water withdrawals and instream reservoirs on stream fish assemblages, and compared effects with other hypothesized drivers of species richness and assemblage composition. We sampled fishes during three years in 28 streams used for municipal water supply in the Piedmont region of Georgia, U.S.A. Study sites had permitted average withdrawal rates that ranged from < 0.05 to > 13 times the stream’s seven-day, ten-year recurrence low flow (7Q10), and were located directly downstream either from a water supply reservoir or from a withdrawal taken from an unimpounded stream. Ordination analysis of catch data showed a shift in assemblage composition at reservoir sites corresponding to dominance by habitat generalist species. Richness of fluvial specialists averaged about 3 fewer species downstream from reservoirs, and also declined as permitted withdrawal rate increased above about 0.5 to one 7Q10-equivalent of water. Reservoir presence and withdrawal rate, along with drainage area, accounted for 70% of the among-site variance in fluvial specialist richness and were better predictor variables than percent of the catchment in urban land use or average streambed sediment size. Increasing withdrawal rate also increased the odds that a site’s Index of Biotic Integrity score fell below a regulatory threshold indicating biological impairment. Estimates of reservoir and withdrawal effects on stream biota could be used in predictive landscape models to support adaptive water supply planning intended to meet societal needs while conserving biological resources.     

Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States

Accurate projections of streamflow, which have implications for flooding, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, are critical to climate change adaptation and require an understanding of streamflow sensitivity to climate drivers. The northeastern United States has experienced a dramatic increase in extreme precipitation over the past 25 years; however, the effects of these changes, as well as changes in other drivers of streamflow, remain unclear. Here, we use a random forest model forced with a regional climate model to examine historical and future streamflow dynamics of four watersheds across the Northeast. We find that streamflow in the cold season (November–May) is primarily driven by 3-day rainfall and antecedent wetness (Antecedent Precipitation Index) in three rainfall-dominant watersheds, and 30-day rainfall, antecedent wetness, and 30-day snowmelt in the fourth, more snowmelt-dominated watershed. In the warm season (June–October), streamflow is driven by antecedent wetness and rainfall in all watersheds. By the end of the century (2070–2099), cold season streamflow depends on the importance placed on snow in the machine learning model, with changes ranging from −7% (with snow) to +40% (without snow) in a single watershed. Simulated future warm season streamflow increases in two watersheds (56% and 193%) due to increased precipitation and antecedent soil wetness, but decreases in the other two watersheds (−6% and −27%) due to reduced precipitation.     

关于死海地区臭氧耗损现象(ODEs)的研究综述

自1997年在死海地区的大气边界层中观测到午间臭氧浓度迅速下降的现象后,研究学者们即对该地区的臭氧耗损现象(ozone depletion events,简称ODEs)展开了研究.而在此之前,大气边界层内的ODEs现象普遍被认为只会发生在极地地区的特殊大气现象.本文综述了关于死海地区ODEs研究的发展历史,主要展示了促...     

石墨烯对高等植物幼苗的毒性及机理探究

随着石墨烯产品的广泛应用和潜在的环境释放,其对生态环境的影响已引起广泛关注。为探讨石墨烯对高等植物生长的影响,探究了其对黄瓜幼苗和玉米幼苗生长的影响及其致毒机理。结果表明,水培条件下,不同浓度的石墨烯(10、50、100、500、1 000和2 000 mg·L~(-1))处理植物幼苗15 d后,对植物幼苗的生长具有抑制作用。且随着处理时间和石墨烯浓度的增加,植物幼苗生长的所有指标,包括根/地上部鲜重和干重、根长、根尖数、株高和叶面积均相应降低。另外,黄瓜幼苗比玉米幼苗对石墨烯更加的敏感。进一步研究发现,石墨烯与黄瓜幼苗根部直接接触导致的物理损伤、氧化损伤,以及营养耗竭是其致毒机理。而石墨烯对玉米幼苗的致毒机理包括物理损伤和营养耗竭。本研究为石墨烯的环境风险评价提供了基础数据。     

Finding Common Ground: How Advocacy Coalitions Succeed in Protecting Environmental Flows1

Abstract: This paper reviews several recent case studies in which states or countries have strengthened their protection of environmental flows to explore the key policy, stakeholder, and scientific elements that contributed to these advances in water management. A conceptual framework is developed to describe the actions of interest groups and individuals, how environmental flow issues get onto the formal agenda of decision makers, the events and conditions which precipitate this attention, the role of science and scientific uncertainty, and how interactions and dialog among individuals and groups with different interests lead to changes in state and national statutes. In general, the review found that changing policies is a result of actions of informed groups of interested parties using science and information to inform both the public and decision makers about the need for action and about the specific action needed. In almost all cases, environmental flow issues make it onto the formal agenda of institutions through one or more precipitating events, often legal challenges that call into question the existing legal framework for water management. Significantly, in almost all cases the engagement between advocacy coalitions with different and often opposing views results in reframing the issues to provide a common approach or solution upon which the competing coalitions can agree.     

Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho1

Stratton, Benjamin T., Venakataramana Sridhar, Molly M. Gribb, James P. McNamara, and Balaji Narasimhan, 2009. Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1390‐1408. Abstract: The distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model was applied to a research watershed, the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, near Boise Idaho to investigate its water balance components both temporally and spatially. Calibrating and validating SWAT is necessary to enable our understanding of the water balance components in this semiarid watershed. Daily streamflow data from four streamflow gages were used for calibration and validation of the model. Monthly estimates of streamflow during the calibration phase by SWAT produced satisfactory results with a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency 0.79. Since it is a continuous simulation model, as opposed to an event‐based model, it demonstrated the limited ability in capturing both streamflow and soil moisture for selected rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events during the validation period between 2005 and 2007. Especially, soil moisture was generally underestimated compared with observations from two monitoring pits. However, our implementation of SWAT showed that seasonal and annual water balance partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, and drainage was not only possible but closely followed the trends of a typical semiarid watershed in the intermountain west. This study highlights the necessity for better techniques to precisely identify and drive the model with commonly observed climatic inversion‐related snowmelt or ROS weather events. Estimation of key parameters pertaining to soil (e.g., available water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity), snow (e.g., lapse rates, melting), and vegetation (e.g., leaf area index and maximum canopy index) using additional field observations in the watershed is critical for better prediction.     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.