Finding Common Ground: How Advocacy Coalitions Succeed in Protecting Environmental Flows1

Abstract: This paper reviews several recent case studies in which states or countries have strengthened their protection of environmental flows to explore the key policy, stakeholder, and scientific elements that contributed to these advances in water management. A conceptual framework is developed to describe the actions of interest groups and individuals, how environmental flow issues get onto the formal agenda of decision makers, the events and conditions which precipitate this attention, the role of science and scientific uncertainty, and how interactions and dialog among individuals and groups with different interests lead to changes in state and national statutes. In general, the review found that changing policies is a result of actions of informed groups of interested parties using science and information to inform both the public and decision makers about the need for action and about the specific action needed. In almost all cases, environmental flow issues make it onto the formal agenda of institutions through one or more precipitating events, often legal challenges that call into question the existing legal framework for water management. Significantly, in almost all cases the engagement between advocacy coalitions with different and often opposing views results in reframing the issues to provide a common approach or solution upon which the competing coalitions can agree.     

Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho1

Stratton, Benjamin T., Venakataramana Sridhar, Molly M. Gribb, James P. McNamara, and Balaji Narasimhan, 2009. Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1390‐1408. Abstract: The distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model was applied to a research watershed, the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, near Boise Idaho to investigate its water balance components both temporally and spatially. Calibrating and validating SWAT is necessary to enable our understanding of the water balance components in this semiarid watershed. Daily streamflow data from four streamflow gages were used for calibration and validation of the model. Monthly estimates of streamflow during the calibration phase by SWAT produced satisfactory results with a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency 0.79. Since it is a continuous simulation model, as opposed to an event‐based model, it demonstrated the limited ability in capturing both streamflow and soil moisture for selected rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events during the validation period between 2005 and 2007. Especially, soil moisture was generally underestimated compared with observations from two monitoring pits. However, our implementation of SWAT showed that seasonal and annual water balance partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, and drainage was not only possible but closely followed the trends of a typical semiarid watershed in the intermountain west. This study highlights the necessity for better techniques to precisely identify and drive the model with commonly observed climatic inversion‐related snowmelt or ROS weather events. Estimation of key parameters pertaining to soil (e.g., available water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity), snow (e.g., lapse rates, melting), and vegetation (e.g., leaf area index and maximum canopy index) using additional field observations in the watershed is critical for better prediction.     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.     

Sustainability and environmental enhancement in changing cirumstances

Natural environment has endured fast economic growth and population explosion sine the 20th century,which has soil erosion,land desertification,ozone layer depletion,bio-diversity reduction and persistent toxic and harmful pollutants are among the major environmental challenges.     

DOCUMENTATION OF HIGH SUMMER FLOWS ON THE POTOMAC RIVER FROM THE WOOD ANATOMY OF ASH TREES1

ABSTRACT: Ash trees (Fraxinus americana L. and F. Pennsylvanica Marsh.) collected from the flood plain of the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., were studied for evidence of associations between known periods of above-average summer flows and changes in wood-growth anatomy. Concentric bands of latewood fibers with atypically large lumens and thin walls commonly developed in trees growing near the low-water channel. Discharge records indicate that roots of most trees with these “white rings” were flooded temporarily during the latewood-growth interval. Trees apparently were not damaged and a concomitant reduction of internal water stresses seems to have accelerated the rate of radial growth. The intra-ring position of anomalous fibers generally corresponded to the time of increased discharge within the estimated interval of latewood growth. Anomalous fibers occasionally formed in unflooded trees, but their position also coincided with episodes of increased discharge. The results of these studies may have applications for streamflow-reconstruction techniques where hydrologic data are incomplete or lacking.     

Sustaining Asia's groundwater boom: An overview of issues and evidence

This article suggests that Asia’s groundwater socio‐ecology is at an impasse. Rapid growth in groundwater irrigation in South Asia and the North China plains during the period 1970–95 has been the main driver of the agrarian boom in these regions. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China account for the bulk of the world’s use of groundwater in agriculture. On the plus side, groundwater development has provided sustenance to agrarian economies and millions of rural livelihoods. On the downside, it has created chronic problems of resource depletion and quality deterioration. While problems of groundwater depletion, pollution and quality deterioration are indeed serious, so are the consequences of the degradation of the resource for those that have come to precariously depend upon groundwater irrigation. Three problems currently afflict groundwater use: depletion due to overdraft; water logging and salinization; and pollution due to agricultural, industrial and other human activity. The pathology of the decline in groundwater socio‐ecology reflects a remarkably similar pattern across regions. The critical issue for Asia now is: what might be done to sustain and revive these groundwater socio‐ecologies vital to the region’s economy? This article reviews a variety of techno‐institutional approaches. However, transposing lessons from the industrialized world uncritically in the Asian context may not work. A more nuanced understanding of the peculiarities of Asia’s groundwater socio‐ecology is needed.     

消耗臭氧层物质对平流层臭氧的影响预测

采用美国戈达德航天中心的雨云气象卫星臭氧全球网格资料,从中截取中国大陆主体部分(69.375°E～139.375°E、14.5°N～54.5°N)的数据,分析臭氧柱浓度变化的统计特性.结果表明,1979～1998年,大陆主体上空区域的臭氧柱浓度下降趋势明显,青藏高原上空的臭氧柱浓度下降速度较全国水平略快.假定其他缔约国均履行蒙特利尔议定书的前提下,以1980年臭氧柱浓度情形为基准,利用臭氧柱浓度与消耗臭氧层物质浓度之间的关系,预测了中国履行蒙特利尔议定书与不履行两种情形下,2001～2050年中国上空臭氧柱浓度变化情况.结果表明,中国履约受控情形下,2050年大陆主体部分上空的臭氧柱浓度将与其1980年的水平相近;不受控情形下,柱浓度将持续下降,2050年整个大陆主体上空绝大部分地区臭氧柱浓度值均低于240DU.     

Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model1

Harshburger, Brian J., Von P. Walden, Karen S. Humes, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2012. Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 643‐655. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00642.x Abstract: As water demand increases in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. We describe a method for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts (1‐15 days) using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Forecasts are produced for three snowmelt‐dominated basins in Idaho. Model inputs are derived from meteorological forecasts, snow cover imagery, and surface observations from Snowpack Telemetry stations. The model performed well at lead times up to 7 days, but has significant predictability out to 15 days. The timing of peak flow and the streamflow volume are captured well by the model, but the peak‐flow value is typically low. The model performance was assessed by computing the coefficient of determination (R²), percentage of volume difference (Dv%), and a skill score that quantifies the usefulness of the forecasts relative to climatology. The average R² value for the mean ensemble is >0.8 for all three basins for lead times up to seven days. The Dv% is fairly unbiased (within ±10%) out to seven days in two of the basins, but the model underpredicts Dv% in the third. The average skill scores for all basins are >0.6 for lead times up to seven days, indicating that the ensemble model outperforms climatology. These results validate the usefulness of the ensemble forecasting approach for basins of this type, suggesting that the ensemble version of SRM might be applied successfully to other basins in the Intermountain West.     

海陆风环流中海盐气溶胶对大气影响的模拟

采用WRF-CMAQ模式对2013年9月9~13日珠江口一次典型海陆风过程进行数值模拟,并进一步探讨了在此类型环流系统下,海盐气溶胶及其对大气环境的影响.结果表明：珠江口附近海风环流一般在14：00左右开始形成,17：00左右发展最旺盛,且在珠江口沿岸形成扇形风系.在海陆风环流影响下,珠江三角洲地区陆地上Na⁺浓度从17：00开始增加,次日02：00左右达到最大,10：00以后开始下降.海盐气溶胶存在明显的氯亏损现象,其中白天的氯亏损情况远比晚上严重,细粒径的氯亏损情况比粗粒径严重.设置有无海盐气溶胶排放的敏感性试验进行对比研究发现：考虑海盐排放后,珠江口地区HCl,SO₄^2-,NO₃^-的浓度均有增加,其中,HCl和NO₃^-的增加较多,SO₄^2-较少.HCl浓度增加的高值在Cl^-高值之前;SO₄^2-浓度变化主要受海盐气溶胶排放中的硫酸盐组分影响;NO₃^-浓度变化则主要受氯亏损机制和NO₃^-干沉降过程共同影响.     

Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin1

Mehta, Vikram M., Norman J. Rosenberg, and Katherin Mendoza, 2011. Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):126‐135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00496.x Abstract: The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States (U.S.), and is one of the most important crop and livestock‐producing regions in the world. In a previous study of associations between decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and hydro‐meteorological (HM) variability in the MRB, it was found that positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool (WPWP) temperature variability were significantly associated with decadal variability in precipitation and 2‐meter air temperature in the MRB, with combinations of various phases of these DCV phenomena associated with drought, flood, or neutral HM conditions. Here, we report on a methodology developed and applied to assess whether the aforementioned DCVs directly affect the hydrology of the MRB. The Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. (HUMUS) was used to simulate water yields in response to realistic values of the PDO, TAG, and WPWP at 75 widely distributed, eight‐digit hydrologic unit areas within the MRB. HUMUS driven by HM anomalies in both the positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG resulted in major impacts on water yields, as much as ±20% of average water yield in some locations. Impacts of the WPWP were smaller. The combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on the MRB HM and water availability can be dramatic with important consequences for the MRB.