全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃对淮河中上游径流影响预估

论文应用第5次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)中5个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models,GCMs)和3种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下的预估结果,分析了淮河中上游地区未来的气候变化特征。进一步基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型定量预估了气候变化对该区域径流量的影响,并量化了预估结果的不确定性。结果表明:SWAT模型在淮河中上游对月径流量具有较好的模拟能力。在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下,淮河中上游年平均气温分别较基准期(1986—2005年)增加1.1℃和1.7℃;年降水量较基准期分别相应增加4%和7%;基于SWAT模型预估的年径流量较基准期分别增加5%和8%。未来气候变化不会改变月径流分布特征,年内径流仍集中在盛夏和初秋(6—9月)。预估的月丰水流量明显增加,尤其当全球增温达到2.0℃后,出现洪涝的风险明显增大。未来降水量和径流量预估都存在较大的不确定性,不确定性主要来源于GCMs,在全球增温2.0℃下预估的不确定性更大。     

An observational study of child safety seat use in an international safe community: Tehran,Iran

Objective: Despite strong evidence of the effectiveness of child safety seats in reducing injuries, the use of these devices in some communities is still rare. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of child safety seat use and the factors influencing its use in the safe community of Tehran.

Methods: This roadside observational study was conducted in 2015 and 2,178 personal cars with a child under 12 years aboard were observed on Tehran's streets in regard to use of child safety seats. Other variables such as the gender of the driver, driver's age group, type of street, region of municipality, time of day, and day of the week were also collected.

Results: Prevalence of child safety seat use was 4.3% and was significantly higher among women drivers, on freeways, and in municipal regions 1, 4, and 7.

Conclusions: The prevalence of child safety seat use in Tehran as a most populous member of the international safe community was very low and most children commuted in insecure situations in the vehicle. Therefore, it is proposed that plans should be made to increase the use of child safety seats in international safe communities.     

Improved recovery of repeat intoxicated drivers using fingernails and blood spots to monitor alcohol and other substance abuse

Objectives: This study reports the results of a pilot program in Kenosha County that used a combination of direct biomarkers extracted from blood spots and nails to monitor repeat intoxicated drivers for their use of alcohol and drugs with a detection window spanning from 3 weeks to several months. The objectives were to test whether the direct biomarkers phosphatidylethanol (PEth), ethylglucuronide (EtG), and 5 drug metabolites would (1) help assessors obtain a more objective evaluation of repeat offenders during the assessment interview, (2) allow for timely identification of relapses and improve classification of drivers into risk categories, and (3) predict recidivism by identifying offenders most likely to obtain a subsequent operating while intoxicated (OWI) offense within 4 years of enrollment in the program.

Methods: All (N = 261) repeat offenders were tested using PEth obtained from blood spots and EtG obtained from fingernails; 159 participants were also tested for a 5 drugs of abuse nail panel. Drivers were tested immediately after the assessment interview (baseline) and at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after baseline. Based on biomarker results and self-reports of abstinence, offenders were classified into different risk categories and required to follow specific testing timelines based on the program's decision tree.

Results: The baseline analysis shows that 60% of drivers tested positive for alcohol biomarkers (EtG, PEth, or both) at the assessment interview, with lower detection rates (0–11%) for the 5 drug metabolites. The comparison of biomarkers results to self-reports of abstinence identified 28% of all offenders as high risk and assigned them to more frequent testing and more intense monitoring. The longitudinal analysis shows that 56% (completers) of participants completed the program successfully and the remaining 44% (noncompliant) terminated prematurely. Two thirds (68%) of the completers were able to reduce or control their drinking and one third relapsed at least one time during their mandated monitoring periods. After a brief intervention by the assessors, 79% of relapsers tested negative for biomarkers in their repeat tests. The rearrest analysis showed that offenders classified in the noncompliant and relapsers groups were 7 times more likely to receive a new OWI 4 years after enrollment compared to drivers classified as abstainers or controllers. Refractory drivers were monitored the longest and reported no subsequent rearrests.

Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the benefits of more individualized interventions with repeat OWI offenders and calls for further development of multimodal approaches in traffic medicine including those that use direct alcohol biomarkers as evidence-based practices to reduce recidivism.     

活性炭纤维对水中酚类化合物的吸附特性

研究了活性炭纤维(actived carbon fiber,ACF)对模拟废水中苯酚、对氯苯酚、对硝基苯酚的吸附特性.采用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)对ACF的表面结构进行了表征.通过静态吸附试验,采用吸附热力学探讨了ACF对苯酚、对氯苯酚、对硝基苯酚模拟废水的机制,计算了有关的热力学函数.结果表明,ACF对它们的吸附速率很快,在酸性条件下吸附效果较好,相同条件下,去除率是苯酚(87%)<对氯苯酚(96%)<对硝基苯酚(99%).ACF对这3种物质的吸附都是自发的放热反应,属于物理吸附.吸附等温线能用Dubinin-Radushkevieh方程较好地拟合.     

分段进水生物接触氧化工艺处理河道污水的试验研究

选择滇池入湖污染负荷最高的大清河为对象,以分段进水生物接触氧化(SFBC)工艺对河道污水开展了分流处理的试验研究,已完成冬季枯水期、春季枯水期及夏季丰水期3个时期的研究.结果表明.SFBC工艺对水质变化具有很好的适应性,调整各时期的运行参数,可以使COD及TP的去除率分别稳定在50%和40%左右,但TN的去除受水温及溶解氧等的影响很大,在逐渐稳定后去除率可达到20%左右.接种活性污泥可以加快装置的启动.但总体去除效果不及来水自然驯化的污泥.随着运行时间延长以及来水带入河道底泥的影响.有无接种污泥在处理效率上的差别逐渐消失.     

宝钢中厚板分公司煤干燥机除尘系统风量调整技术探究

文章针对宝钢股份中厚板分公司炼铁厂煤干燥机除尘系统吸尘点冒灰,粉尘无组织排放超标的现象进行了测试分析,数据表明主要由除尘系统风量匹配不佳、吸尘点风量不合理造成。笔者通过不断调整阀门及风机档板开摩,测试调整后的风量、除尘性能、岗位粉尘浓度等参数,确定了一个合理的系统风量,不仅可以达到环境排放及职业卫生的要求,而且充分挖掘了除尘系统潜力,达到了节能降耗、经济运行的目的,同时对类似除尘系统风量匹配不佳、扬尘等问题也形成了有效的解决方案。     

小水电资源区域开发环境影响回顾性评价案例分析——以海南省为例

在小水电资源区域开发规划环境影响报告书编制中应设置小水电资源区域开发环境影响回顾性评价专题,对规划区域小水电资源开发过程产生的环境问题进行调查和回顾性评价,从中发现小水电资源开发存在的环境问题,并提出规避的对策。海南省小水电资源开发规划环境影响报告书小水电资源区域开发环境影响回顾性评价专题案例。通过遥感影像判读及现场调查发现,选址不当、断流、减水、沙化、景观破坏、植被覆盖率降低及外来物种入侵、水土流失、用水矛盾、影响渔业资源等环境问题普遍存在,主要原因是环境行政管理虚位。主要对策有：在小水电资源开发规划及项目可行性研究报告中,应将环境法规符合性及环保投资列为重要内容;实施工程环境监理;加强竣工环保验收;将水电站下泄生态流量等环保措施执行情况的现场检查纳入常态工作范畴。     

电流探头分析设计

分析了电流探头的两大技术指标,传输阻抗及传输阻抗宽频平坦度,并从电流探头物理结构模型出发,构建了电流探头的电路模型,推导出传输阻抗的计算公式,并从电路模型出发,分析了绕线电阻、端接电阻、分布电容对传输阻抗的影响。     

衡阳丰乐五号西瓜空心畸形事件调查及气候影响分析

2009年6月衡阳丰乐五号西瓜出现空心、畸形现象,果农经济损失惨重。经相关部门多次调查发现,5月下旬持续低温阴雨天气是造成该事件发生的主要原因,栽培管理不当导致灾损进一步发展。历史数据分析表明,衡阳5月低温天气发生频率为67.57%,主要出现在上旬后期—中旬前期。进入新世纪以后,低温发生频率减少,强度减弱。对西瓜提前栽种似乎更加有利,但由此所带来的风险更大,为了保险起见,应大力推进设施栽培,采用小拱架双膜覆盖等栽培技术。     

我国灾害信息传播的研究现状与展望

近年来灾害事件频发,有关灾害信息传播的研究成为传播学的一个热点研究方向,目前我国灾害信息传播的研究角度众多,取得了较为丰硕的成果,但大多还只停留在个案研究层面,系统研究有待加强。本文在分析现状的基础上,提出了整合传播是我国灾害信息传播研究的新方向,并可分出传播渠道整合、传播内容整合和传媒自身整合等众多研究分支。