Climate and Water Conflicts Coevolution from Tropical Development and Hydro‐Climatic Perspectives: A Case Study of Costa Rica

Costa Rica is a nation with a vast wealth of water resources; however, recently the country has faced water conflicts (WC) due to social, economic, legal, and political impediments in response to limited water availability during El Niño events and inefficient use of its water resources. This study presents a spatial distribution and temporal analysis of WC in Costa Rica from 2005 to 2015. In total, 719 WC were analyzed of which 54% were among private individuals and government. The largest urban areas and the Grande de Tárcoles Basin were identified as the main “hot spot” for the conflicts. WC were mainly caused by spills of wastewater, water pollution, water shortage, infrastructure damage, and flooding, and can be predicted using a multiple linear model including the population size and the number of hydro‐meteorological events (HME) (R² = 0.77). The identified HME also coevolved significantly with the changes in precipitation regimes (r = 0.67, p = 0.021). Our results suggest that there is a need to recognize that water infrastructure longevity across the country concatenates and amplifies WC, mainly in the most populated area located in the Central Valley. Implications of our findings include the need for truly integrated water resources management plans that include, for example, WC as indicators of hydro‐climatic changing conditions and water supply and sanitation infrastructure status.     

A Framework for Incorporating the Impact of Water Quality on Water Supply Stress: An Example from Louisiana,USA

Water of poor quality can directly impact the budget of water available for key user groups. Despite this importance, methods for quantifying the impact of water quality on water availability remain elusive. Here, we develop a new framework for incorporating the impact of water quality on water supply by modifying the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI). We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework by investigating the impact of high salinity waters on the availability of irrigation water for agriculture in Louisiana. The WaSSI was deconstructed into sectoral components such that the total available water supply could be reduced for a particular demand sector (agricultural irrigation in this example) based on available water quality information. The results for Louisiana highlight substantial impacts on water supply stress for farmers attributable to the landward encroachment of saline surface water and groundwater near the coast. Areas of high salinity near the coast also increased the competition for freshwater resources among the industrial, municipal, and agricultural demand sectors in the vicinities of the municipal areas of Lake Charles, Lafayette, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The framework developed here is easily adaptable for other water quality concerns and for other demand sectors, and as such can serve as a useful tool for water managers.     

基于ARIMA-MC模型钢铁企业高炉煤气发生量预测

为了预测钢铁企业高炉煤气发生量,本文用ARIMA模型及马尔科夫链建立了ARIMA-MC模型对高炉煤气的发生量进行预测。结合某钢铁企业实际的原始数据,通过实验,随机抽取多组测试结果中的两组,1#和2#各30个点进行预测,结果表明预测平均相对误差分别为2.27%、3.03%。实验结果证明新算法的有效性。     

煤矿事故预测的马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)c模型的建立与应用

煤矿安全是煤矿生产的重要保障,煤矿事故预测是煤矿安全评价和决策的基础。结合灰色SCGM(1,1)_c预测模型和马尔可夫链理论的优点,根据煤矿生产的特殊条件,提出了基于马尔可夫链的SCGM(1,1)_c预测模型。首先利用灰色SCGM(1,1)_c预测模型对我国1990—2010年的煤矿事故百万t死亡率进行初次预测,然后根据初次预测结果,利用残差模型对SCGM(1,1)_c模型预测结果进行修正。最后在修正模型的基础上,运用马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)_c模型对我国2011—2013年煤矿事故百万t死亡率进行了预测,并对两种模型的预测误差进行了对比分析。结果表明,马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)_c预测模型既能揭示煤矿事故百万t死亡率变化的总体趋势,又能克服随机波动性数据对预测精度的影响,具有较强的工程实用性。     

The effect of salinity on waste activated sludge alkaline fermentation and kinetic analysis

The effect of salinity on sludge alkaline fermentation at low temperature(20°C) was investigated, and a kinetic analysis was performed. Different doses of sodium chloride(Na Cl, 0–25 g/L) were added into the fermentation system. The batch-mode results showed that the soluble chemical oxygen demand(SCOD) increased with salinity. The hydrolysate(soluble protein, polysaccharide) and the acidification products(short chain fatty acids(SCFAs), NH+4–N, and PO_4~(3-)–P) increased with salinity initially, but slightly declined respectively at higher level salinity(20 g/L or 20–25 g/L). However, the hydrolytic acidification performance increased in the presence of salt compared to that without salt.Furthermore, the results of Haldane inhibition kinetics analysis showed that the salt enhanced the hydrolysis rate of particulate organic matter from sludge particulate and the specific utilization of hydrolysate, and decreased the specific utilization of SCFAs. Pearson correlation coefficient analysis indicated that the importance of polysaccharide on the accumulation of SCFAs was reduced with salt addition, but the importance of protein and NH+4–N on SCFA accumulation was increased.     

基于多组并联控制的高层建筑遇险循环链梯研究

为了解决居住在高层建筑中的人们遇险后安全疏散的问题,研究出一种新颖的无动力链梯逃逸系统。在没有电力资源的情况下,既要解决循环链梯缓降速度,实现平滑控制的问题,又要解决系统长期处于闲置状态,而不影响其可靠性的问题。提出了循环链梯缓降速度多组并联控制的方案;采用液压式并联控制机构,很好地解决了链梯缓降速度的平滑控制及其可靠性的问题;并成功地研制出循环链梯的试验装置,经实际的性能测试表明,具有启动负荷小、运行平稳、工作可靠的特点。     

城镇供水水质安全性及其保障措施

水质的恶化涉及农业面源污染、工业点源污染以及人们生活方式及其活动形式造成的环境污染,是安全问题,也是环境问题。为此,笔者系统分析了城镇供水水质安全面临的严峻形势以及存在的问题;给出了城镇供水水质安全的内涵;从源头抓起,提出了城镇供水水质安全的对策和措施;同时建立了城镇供水水质监督体系和饮用水安全的应急预案,为城镇安全供水提供了保障。     

外商股权投资国有自来水公司的模式探讨

本文重点分析和探讨了外商在符合目前我国相关法规的前提下，投资国内自来水行业的交易模式及其优缺点。其中，三权分离模式是结合2006年正式施行的新公司法提出的一种创新性的操作模式，可为国内项目的实际运作提供新的思路和途径。     

COMPROMISE PROGRAMMING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING INSTREAM FLOW UNDER MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER ALLOCATION CRITERIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a quantitative assessment framework for determining the instream flow under multiobjective water allocation criteria. The Range of Variability Approach (RVA) is employed to evaluate the hydrologic alterations caused by flow diversions, and the resulting degrees of alteration for the 32 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHAs) are integrated as an overall degree of hydrologic alteration. By including this index in the objective function, it is possible to optimize the water allocation scheme using compromise programming to minimize the hydrologic alteration and water supply shortages. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of the Kaoping diversion weir in Taiwan. The results indicate that the current release of 9.5 m³/s as a minimum instream flow does not effectively mitigate the highly altered hydrologic regime. Increasing the instream flow would reduce the overall degree of hydrologic alteration; however, this is achieved at the cost of increasing the water supply shortages. The effects on the optimal instream flow of the weighting factors assigned to water supplies and natural flow variations are also investigated. With equal weighting assigned to the multiple objectives, the optimal instream flow of 26 m³/s leads to a less severely altered hydrologic regime, especially for those low‐flow characteristics, thereby providing a better protection of the riverine environment.     

灾害互斥链研究

灾害互斥链是四种灾害链中的一种。文中讨论了长江和华南暴雨与华北大震之间的互斥关系。认为长江和华南暴雨是华北大震前大范围释放的热汽造成的低压状态吸引副高北移造成的。