HOW CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT: MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In particular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods could be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulation modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussions. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants before and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great Lakes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user-friendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for large public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the case study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the other hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees because they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficult to understand and subject to manipulation.     

基于遥感影像的木兰溪水质参数反演

水质监测对水环境评价及污染预防至关重要,但地面监测成本高、监测面积有限等,难以满足实时、大范围监测的要求。为了更好地解决该问题,基于遥感影像的空中监测技术越来越得到研究人员的青睐。以木兰溪为研究区,利用和地面监测数据同步的Landsat-8卫星遥感影像数据,对木兰溪的典型水质参数总磷、总氮、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数的反演问题进行研究。首先,根据Landsat-8的水体敏感波段,分别选取总磷、总氮、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数的反演特征波段组合为(b1-b2)/(b2+b3),(b1-b2)/(b3-b4),b2/(b1+b4),b1/b2;其次,利用反演特征波段组合分别构建总磷、总氮、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数浓度的SVR(Support Vector Regression)反演模型,通过IPSO算法对SVR模型的参数进行优选;然后,将IPSO-SVR反演模型和统计回归反演模型、广义回归神经网络(GRNN)反演模型在验证集上进行评估,以平均绝对误差和均方根误差作为评价指标进行对比分析,结果表明IPSO-SVR反演模型的平均绝对误差和均方根误差最小,说明IPSO-SVR反演模型具有较高的精度和较好的实用性...     

针对大型振动试验辅助支撑系统的结构设计与技术改进

对振动台辅助支撑系统进行了结构改进,增加了空气弹簧和导向轴。并且针对偏心问题,采用多个气源对不同位置分布的空气弹簧施加不同的气压进一步增强振动台的抗倾覆能力。建立了一套可以应用于轨道交通等大型设备的具有较大承载能力(14 t),较大抗倾覆能力的振动台辅助支撑系统。     

Hurricane Katrina‐linked environmental injustice: race,class, and place differentials in attitudes

Claims of environmental injustice, human neglect, and racism dominated the popular and academic literature after Hurricane Katrina struck the United States in August 2005. A systematic analysis of environmental injustice from the perspective of the survivors remains scanty or nonexistent. This paper presents, therefore, a systematic empirical analysis of the key determinants of Katrina‐induced environmental injustice attitudes among survivors in severely affected parishes (counties) in Louisiana and Mississippi three years into the recovery process. Statistical models based on a random sample of survivors were estimated, with the results revealing significant predictors such as age, children in household under 18, education, homeownership, and race. The results further indicate that African‐Americans were more likely to perceive environmental injustice following Katrina than their white counterparts. Indeed, the investigation reveals that there are substantial racial gaps in measures of environmental injustice. The theoretical, methodological, and applied policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Weather,climate, politics,or God? Determinants of American public opinions toward global warming

2012 American National Election Study data supplemented with monthly temperature data from the United States Historical Climatology Network are used to examine how religion, politics, and weather and climate affect views of global warming. Evangelical fundamentalism is the most consistent factor among all religion-related variables in determining perceptions of global warming, those more oriented toward evangelical fundamentalism being less likely than others to believe in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and adverse impact of global warming. Controlling for the effects of traditional political predisposition variables, including party identification and political ideology, support for the Tea Party plays a dominant role in determining views of global warming; support for the Tea Party leading to higher likelihood of disbelief in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and negative impact of global warming. Warming winters coupled with cooling springs of the past decade are positively related with belief in the existence of global warming.     

Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5‐11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best‐performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid‐Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.     

An Open Source GIS‐Based Decision Support System for Watershed Evaluation of Best Management Practices

Economic costs, water quantity/quality benefits, and cost effectiveness of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) at a watershed scale are increasingly examined using integrated economic‐hydrologic models. However, these models are typically complex and not user‐friendly for examining the effects of various BMP scenarios. In this study, an open source geographic information system (GIS)‐based decision support system (DSS), named the watershed evaluation of BMPs (WEBs), was developed for creating BMP scenarios and simulating economic costs and water quantity/quality benefits at farm field, subbasin, and watershed scales. This DSS or WEBs interface integrated a farm economic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and an optimization model within Whitebox Geospatial Analysis Tools (GAT), an open source GIS software. The DSS was applied to the 14.3‐km² Gully Creek watershed, a coastal watershed in southern Ontario, Canada that drains directly into Lake Huron. BMPs that were evaluated included conservation tillage, nutrient management, cover crop, and water and sediment control basins. In addition to assessing economic costs, water quantity/quality benefits, and cost effectiveness of BMPs, the DSS can be also used to examine prioritized BMP types/locations and corresponding economic and water quantity/quality tradeoffs in the study watershed based on environmental targets or budget constraints. Further developments of the DSS including interface transfer to other watersheds are also discussed. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

An enhanced sustainable approach for design and manufacturing with an application to fuselages for mono-seat civil sailplanes

Abstract

A number of tools and software systems have been developed in order to reduce the time for the design and manufacturing of industrial products. Nowadays, virtual modelling by Computer Aided Design (CAD) systems and process simulation by the application of Finite Element Method (FEM) software is a standard routine in order to compress product design activities and to achieve the optimal solution before producing any real components. These developments provided not only a reduction in the time to market but a higher complexity of the project and an improved quality of the industrial products. With the aim to further improve the sustainability of this activity, the implementation of a tool that adds automatic operations into the design activity is demonstrated. This software can interact with any CAD and helps designers when the object dimension and shape can be affected by limits and constraints deriving from different features and targets, such as the spatial collocation of the component and the interaction with other limiting items, for examples the material and the manufacturing issues. The concept was developed into the software SFIDA (Sailplane Fuselage Integrated Design Application) that is a first attempt to automatically manage multiple relations and optimise their combination.     

Monetary assessment of the recreational benefits of improved water quality – description of a new model and a case study

The European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) has created a demand for comparing the benefits and costs of the remedial measures. A major part of the benefits from improved water quality relate to the increased recreational value. However, there is a lack of easily operative and widely applicable quantitative methods to assess the benefits of improved water quality for recreational use. We present a new model to link physical indicators of water quality, water feasibility indicators for different recreational uses, individuals’ perceptions concerning the current feasibility of water for recreational purposes and monetary measures of water-related recreation benefits. The model has been applied to nine lakes, three rivers and one large coastal area in Finland. In this paper, we present the principles of the method and the results from one case study. In Finland, the method has been applied for the economic analysis required in the WFD.     

排桩+斜支撑在某大面积基坑开挖中的受力变形性状研究

随着基坑工程开挖面积越来越大,出现了一种排桩+斜支撑的组合支护结构。本文基于两阶段分析方法,首先采用Winkler地基模型模拟排桩的桩土作用,运用有限差分法考虑土的分层特性,然后应用水平受荷桩简化Mindlin解,考虑该组合支护结构的桩-桩相互影响,计算其遮拦效应,从而得到开挖条件下支护结构桩水平反应的简化分析方法。最后,结合济南某基坑工程实例,通过有限差分的方法,研究了排桩+斜支撑组合支护结构的受力变形特性。结果表明,该组合支护结构能够通过支撑桩和排桩的合理布置,有效调动基坑内部土体抵抗荷载,协调基坑土体变形以及支护结构的变形。