Abstract: Flood management problems are inherently complex, time‐bound and multi‐faceted, involving many decision makers (with conflicting priorities and dynamic preferences), high decision stakes, limited technical information (both in terms of quality and quantity), and difficult tradeoffs. Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems (MCDSS) can help to manage this complexity and decision load by combining value judgments and technical information in a structured decision framework. A brief overview of MCDSS is presented, an original MCDSS architecture is put forth, and future research directions are discussed, including extensions to Multi‐Criteria Spatial Decision Support Systems and group MCDSS (as flood management involves shared resources and broad constituencies). With application to the September 11‐12, 2000 Tokai floods in Japan, the proposed multi‐criteria decision support instruments enhance communication among stakeholders and improve emergency management resource allocation. In summary, by making the links among flood knowledge, assumptions and choices more explicit, MCDSS increases stakeholder satisfaction, saves lives, and reduces flood management costs, thereby increasing decision‐making effectiveness, efficiency and transparency. 相似文献
Abstract: Water industry experts have been arguing that the traditional techniques are not an accurate means of measuring water contamination. This is mainly because these techniques emphasize neither the stochastic nature of the water contamination process nor the precision and the accuracy of the tested methods used by environmental laboratories. In this work, we describe the development and application of prototype Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) that model ground‐water quality to determine the impact of chemical contaminants on ground‐water quality in the Salalah area, which is allocated to the south of Oman. We also present a new technique for data pre‐processing because it is needed for the treatment of ground‐water datasets that are used as the data source to learn the probabilities for dynamic decision models. Among more than 20 wells in area, only four wells were selected to be analyzed and the results show that we achieved an acceptable level of efficiency. 相似文献
Human urge of exploiting earth resources has resulted into unprecedented industrial development in the last century resulting into production of large quantities of hazardous chemicals. Chemical, petrochemical, nuclear, biomedical and pharmaceutical industrial accidents release large quantities of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. The accidental discharge during production or storage or transportation have subjected the population to be exposed to exceptionally high concentration levels of hazardous chemicals, taking them by surprise, unprepared with fatal consequences. An emergency planning organization has to be trained to combat this situation in the shortest possible time to minimize the number of causalities. The present paper focuses on computation of dispersion model, using emission source, accident location and online metrological data near to the sources, to provide necessary and accurate results swiftly. The predicted ground level concentrations with the hazardous nature of the chemical, speed and direction of plume, the emergency team will be supplied with all the information in graphical easy to grasp form, superimposed over a GIS map or the latest satellite image of the area.
The emergency team has to be trained for all past scenarios and their preparedness, response and actions must be practiced regularly to be able to abate chemical releases accidentally or intentionally.
Accidental releases of chlorine and ammonia gases in residential and industrial areas are simulated. The predicted ground level concentrations in the effected areas are shown after different time intervals. For low vapor pressure chemical, the dispersion time is large and concentration levels are low but persist for prolonged time while for volatile chemical, the concentrations are high in short time and recovering to safe environment is quick. 相似文献
Land resource sustainability for urban development characterizes the problem of decision-making with multiplicity and uncertainty. A decision support system prototype aids in the assessment of incremental land development plan proposals put forth within the long-term community priority of a sustainable growth. Facilitating this assessment is the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multicriteria evaluation and decision support system. The decision support system incorporates multiple sustainability criteria, weighted strategically responsive to local public policy priorities and community–specific situations and values, while gauging and directing desirable future courses of development. Furthermore, the decision support system uses a GIS, which facilitates an assessment of urban form with multiple indicators of sustainability as spatial criteria thematically. The resultant land-use sustainability scores indicate, on the ratio-scale of AHP, whether or not a desirable urban form is likely in the long run, and if so, to what degree. The two alternative modes of synthesis in AHP—ideal and distributive—provide assessments of a land development plan incrementally (short-term) and city-wide pattern comprehensively (long-term), respectively. Thus, the spatial decision support system facilitates proactive and collective public policy determination of land resource for future sustainable urban development. 相似文献
The Mediterranean environment is exposed to various hazards, including oil spills, forest fires, and floods, making the development of a decision support system (DSS) for emergency management an objective of utmost importance. The present work presents a complete DSS for managing marine pollution events caused by oil spills. The system provides all the necessary tools for early detection of oil-spills from satellite images, monitoring of their evolution, estimation of the accident consequences and provision of support to responsible Public Authorities during clean-up operations. The heart of the system is an image processing–geographic information system and other assistant individual software tools that perform oil spill evolution simulation and all other necessary numerical calculations as well as cartographic and reporting tasks related to a specific management of the oil spill event. The cartographic information is derived from the extant general maps representing detailed information concerning several regional environmental and land-cover characteristics as well as financial activities of the application area. Early notification of the authorities with up-to-date accurate information on the position and evolution of the oil spill, combined with the detailed coastal maps, is of paramount importance for emergency assessment and effective clean-up operations that would prevent environmental hazard. An application was developed for the Region of Crete, an area particularly vulnerable to oil spills due to its location, ecological characteristics, and local economic activities. 相似文献
The United States Forest Service is required to analyze road systems on each of the national forests for potential environmental impacts. We have developed a novel and inexpensive way to do this using the Ecosystem Management Decision Support program (EMDS). We used EMDS to integrate a user-developed fuzzy logic knowledge base with a grid-based geographic information system to evaluate the degree of truth for assertions about a roads environmental impact. Using spatial data for natural and human processes in the Tahoc National Forest (TNF, California, USA), we evaluated the assertion the road has a high potential for impacting the environment. We found a high level of agreement between the products of this evaluation and ground observations of a TNF transportation engineer, as well as occurrences of road failures. We used the modeled potential environmental impact to negatively weight roads for a least-cost path network analysis to 1573 points of interest in the forest. The network analysis showed that out of 8233 km of road analyzed in the forest, 3483 km (42%) must be kept in a modified road network to ensure access to these points. We found that the modified network had improved patch characteristics, such as significantly fewer cherry stem roads intruding into patches, an improved area-weighted mean shape index, and larger mean patch sizes, as compared to the original network. This analysis system could be used by any public agency to analyze infrastructure for environmental or other risk and included in other mandated analyses such as risks to watersheds. 相似文献