MODELKEY. Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity (5 pp)

BACKGROUND: Triggered by the requirement of Water Framework Directive for a good ecological status for European river systems till 2015 and by still existing lacks in tools for cause identification of insufficient ecological status MODELKEY (http:// www.modelkey.org), an Integrated Project with 26 partners from 14 European countries, was started in 2005. MODELKEY is the acronym for 'Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity'. The project is funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme. OBJECTIVES: MODELKEY comprises a multidisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked tools for an enhanced understanding of cause-effect-relationships between insufficient ecological status and environmental pollution as causative factor and for the assessment and forecasting of the risks of key pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale. New modelling tools for risk assessment including generic exposure assessment models, mechanistic models of toxic effects in simplified food chains, integrated diagnostic effect models based on community patterns, predictive component effect models applying artificial neural networks and GIS-based analysis of integrated risk indexes will be developed and linked to a user-friendly decision support system for the prioritisation of risks, contamination sources and contaminated sites. APPROACH: Modelling will be closely interlinked with extensive laboratory and field investigations. Early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo are provided and combined with fractionation and analytical tools for effect-directed analysis of key toxicants. Integrated assessment of exposure and effects on biofilms, invertebrate and fish communities linking chemical analysis in water, sediment and biota with in vitro, in vivo and community level effect analysis is designed to provide data and conceptual understanding for risk arising from key toxicants in aquatic ecosystems and will be used for verification of various modelling approaches. CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVE: The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.     

SAFE—A hierarchical framework for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems

Sustainable development and the definition of indicators to assess progress towards sustainability have become a high priority in scientific research and on policy agendas. In this paper, we propose a consistent and comprehensive framework of principles, criteria and indicators (PC&I) for sustainability assessment of agricultural systems, referred to as the Sustainability Assessment of Farming and the Environment (SAFE) framework. In addition we formulate consistent and objective approaches for indicator identification and selection. The framework is designed for three spatial levels: the parcel level, the farm level and a higher spatial level that can be the landscape, the region or the state. The SAFE framework is hierarchical as it is composed of principles, criteria, indicators and reference values in a structured way. Principles are related to the multiple functions of the agro-ecosystem, which go clearly beyond the production function alone. The multifunctional character of the agro-ecosystem encompasses the three pillars of sustainability: the environmental, economic and social pillars. Indicators and reference values are the end-products of the framework. They are the operational tools that are used for evaluating the sustainability of the agro-ecosystems. The proposed analytical framework is not intended to find a common solution for sustainability in agriculture as a whole, but to serve as an assessment tool for the identification, the development and the evaluation of agricultural production systems, techniques and policies.     

江苏省突发性环境污染事故应急监测支持系统的建立

介绍了江苏省突发性环境污染事故应急监测支持系统,以及该系统的风险源管理子系统、组织保障子系统和技术支持子系统模块的功能意义,为省级应急监测支持系统的建立提供参考和帮助。     

海洋生态调控智能决策技持系统的结构模型

海洋生态调控智能决策支持系统（ＩＤＳＳＭＥＲ）是建立在海洋生态系统动力学原理与控制论方法基础上，以计算机科学技术为主，综合系统科学、管理科学以及海洋生态学的理论和方法的人机交互系统，旨在为决策者在协调资源与环境的生态关系、探索海洋生物资源可持续发展的生态调控对策与可行途径等方面提供一个良好的支持工具。给出ＩＤＳＳＭＥＲ的数据库系统、模型库系统、方法库系统及知识库系统，具有信息服务、科学计算和决策咨询的功能，这种四库三功能结构，以实规定量计算与定性推理有机地结合。最后构迄了基于数据库的知识库以及采用双向推理策略的海洋生态知识库系统结构。     

煤炭资源型城市循环经济发展研究

黑龙江省的鹤岗﹑双鸭山﹑七台河﹑鸡西是全国著名的资源型城市,这些城市为全国提供了大量的煤炭资源,为经济的发展做出了很大的贡献,当前在大力发展循环经济方面,这些城市作了许多探索和实践,取得了许多宝贵的经验,煤炭资源型城市发展循环经济大有可为,但从其发展情况来看,现在仍存在着一些问题阻碍和制约了循环经济的发展,我们通过对这四个煤炭资源型城市发展循环经济的现状和存在问题的调研,提出了资源型城市循环经济发展的对策和建议.     

Novel quantitative structure activity relationship models for predicting hexadecane/air partition coefficients of organic compounds

Predicting the logarithm of hexadecane/air partition coefficient (L) for organic compounds is crucial for understanding the environmental behavior and fate of organic compounds and developing prediction models with polyparameter linear free energy relationships. Herein, two quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed with 1272 L values for the organic compounds by using multiple linear regression (MLR) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. On the basis of the OECD principles, the goodness of fit, robustness and predictive ability for the developed models were evaluated. The SVM model was first developed, and the predictive capability for the SVM model is slightly better than that for the MLR model. The applicability domain (AD) of these two models has been extended to include more kinds of emerging pollutants, i.e., oraganosilicon compounds. The developed QSAR models can be used for predicting L values of various organic compounds. The van der Waals interactions between the organic compound and the hexadecane have a significant effect on the L value of the compound. These in silico models developed in current study can provide an alternative to experimental method for high-throughput obtaining L values of organic compounds.     

On the ecology of vectors

ＯｎｔｈｅｅｃｏｌｏｇｙｏｆｖｅｃｔｏｒｓＦｅｒｎａｎｄｏＤｉａｓｄｅＡｖｉｌａＰｉｒｅｓＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＴｒｏｐｉｃａｌＭｅｄｉｃｉｎｅ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｏＯｓｗａｌｄｏＣｒｕｚ，２１０４５９００ＲｉｏｄｅＪａｎｅｉｒ，ＢｒａｚｉｌＡｂ...     

临海航天发射场设施设备腐蚀控制策略研究

针对临海航天发射场设施设备金属结构腐蚀严重的问题,基于金属腐蚀机理,对发射场设施设备的差异性腐蚀损伤进行了统计和梳理,得出腐蚀成因,并提出腐蚀控制策略和研究方向的建议,为进一步提升我国航天发射场维修保障能力提供理论和技术支撑.     

基于支持向量机的城市道路降雨径流污染预测模型

为实现城市降雨径流污染有效预测,以文献中的实测数据作为样本,选取雨型、平均雨强、峰值雨强、降雨历时、雨前干期、大气降尘量、PM 10、车流量、路面材料及城市功能区等10项影响因子作为模型输入量,选取径流污染指标COD的场次降雨平均浓度EMC及初期冲刷指数FF30作为模型输出量,基于支持向量机(SVM)构建了城市道路径流污染预测模型。结果表明:EMC-SVM及FF30-SVM模型均具有较高的预测精度,EMC-SVM模型校验参数RMSE、MBE远小于数据集EMC均值,CE、CC达到0.815及0.933;FF30-SVM模型校验参数RMSE、MBE远小于数据集FF30均值,CE、CC分别为0.866及0.932;选用径向基函数(RBF)作为核函数,使用k折交叉验证法对模型参数进行寻优,对于EMC-SVM及FF30-SVM模型寻得的最优参数(c,g)分别为(64.0,0.001953125)、(2.0,0.0625)。     

合成旅后装保障方案决策运用模糊评价方法探讨

为使合成旅后装保障方案的决策过程量化,达到决策结果更加符合客观事实的目的,通过引入模糊评价方法,结合分析后装保障方案决策的选择影响因素,确定了不同指标因素下对应的隶属函数,进而建立了针对后装保障方案决策评价问题的定量分析评价模型,最后给出该评价方法的实例运用,结果分析可知该模型在一定程度上保证了后装保障方案决策的科学合理性。