Application of an Environmental Decision Support System to a Water Quality Trading Program Affected by Surface Water Diversions

Environmental decision support systems (EDSSs) are an emerging tool used to integrate the evaluation of highly complex and interrelated physicochemical, biological, hydrological, social, and economic aspects of environmental problems. An EDSS approach is developed to address hot-spot concerns for a water quality trading program intended to implement the total maximum daily load (TMDL) for phosphorus in the Non-Tidal Passaic River Basin of New Jersey. Twenty-two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) spread throughout the watershed are considered the major sources of phosphorus loading to the river system. Periodic surface water diversions to a major reservoir from the confluence of two key tributaries alter the natural hydrology of the watershed and must be considered in the development of a trading framework that ensures protection of water quality. An EDSS is applied that enables the selection of a water quality trading framework that protects the watershed from phosphorus-induced hot spots. The EDSS employs Simon’s (1960) three stages of the decision-making process: intelligence, design, and choice. The identification of two potential hot spots and three diversion scenarios enables the delineation of three management areas for buying and selling of phosphorus credits among WWTPs. The result shows that the most conservative option entails consideration of two possible diversion scenarios, and trading between management areas is restricted accordingly. The method described here is believed to be the first application of an EDSS to a water quality trading program that explicitly accounts for surface water diversions.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

基于农业用地和地形约束的陇南山区适宜人口规模估算

陇南山区地形复杂,耕地不足,经济贫困,人口对资源环境的压力较大。研究适度人口容量对于地震灾后重建、缓解贫困以及保护长江上游的生态安全具有重要意义。以人均粮食和经济水平两个指标来估算温饱、宽裕和小康3个水平上的人口承载量,测度人口和农业资源的关系。并基于地形复杂度计算劳动用工及可抚养人口。结果表明：目前陇南10县(区)的人口在温饱生活水平下尚有超载。以小康生活为标准,适宜人口规模约为135万。经营现有的农耕地和林地需要100.81万劳动力,可抚养人口191.54万人,加上城镇人口总人口为 231.03万。这个人口规模实现温饱有余而宽裕不足,难达小康目标。“人口 农业用地 劳动力”之间形成了一个怪圈,决定了陇南山区农村实现小康目标的艰巨性和复杂性。为此,陇南山区的灾后重建和区域可持续发展需要创新思路,多方并举.     

雾霾天气预测中支持向量机的应用分析

支持向量机在对非线性复杂问题进行处理的过程中,展现出来的优势特征非常突出,本文针对雾霾天气预测中支持向量机的应用做出了进一步探究,对支持向量机的概念、支持向量机的基本思想、建立雾霾预测模型、预测试验给出了详细的分析。     

基于三维GIS的火电厂应急救援决策支持系统研究

针对火电站事故灾害的应急救援工作、电厂应急预案制定的现状,提出基于三维GIS的火电厂应急救援决策支持系统,对火电厂区及周边环境进行虚拟现实仿真,实现对基础地图数据、应急资源数据、重大危险源及其相关属性数据的系统科学管理,以Web方式提供信息查询服务,实现重大危险源周边的三维仿真显示,预测事故影响及其后果,提供最佳路径及救援方案。该研究为火电站及有关部门实施远程应急救援决策提供科学依据。     

模糊支持向量机在滑坡危险性评价中的应用

为了将模糊支持向量机应用于滑坡灾害危险性评价工作,并进行验证,进行了研究区滑坡现状的调查,评价指标的选取,隶属函数的确定和基于FSVM的滑坡灾害危险性评价.选取了高程指标、坡度指标、岩土体指标、地表湿度指标及植被覆盖指标等5个指标作为滑坡灾害危险性评价指标,最后以莆田市为例,结合Rs和GIS技术,进行了滑坡危险性评价的研究.评价结果与实地验证和莆田市国土局提供的地质灾害现状图基本吻合.     

Cutting the cake: Supporting environmental fund allocation decisions

This paper describes a decision support model for allocating financial resources amongst multiple user groups in environmental management problems. The model is based on the multiple criteria analysis (MCA) method of compromise programming. It was used to inform the allocation of Natural Heritage Trust funds across 14 regions in Queensland, Australia. The model targets funding to those regions with greater natural resource management needs. Need is determined by 19 weighted criteria relating to natural resource assets and threats. The model was accepted by the Australian Government, Queensland Government and regional groups as an appropriate means for allocating program funds; first in 2005 and then again, with improvements, in 2007. This paper shows that an MCA model can improve the transparency, auditability and acceptance of allocation decisions which would otherwise be heavily politicised.     

浅议生态环境损害赔偿的理论基础与实施保障

本文立足于环境资源公共物品的属性,探讨构建生态环境损害赔偿制度的理论基础,提出行政主管部门应在生态环境损害赔偿中发挥主导作用。从落实《生态环境损害赔偿制度改革试点方案》的角度出发,从明确责任主体、细化磋商与诉讼程序、健全生态环境损害评估制度、加强资金保障、强化法律与公众监督等方面提出关于改革方案配套制度的八条具体建议。     

Pt/CeO2催化氧化甲苯反应机制研究

采用浸渍法制备了Pt/CeO_2和Pt/Al2O_3催化剂,并通过XRD、BET、ICP-OES、H2-TPR、XPS等手段表征其物理化学性质.结果发现,Pt/CeO_2和Pt/Al2O_3催化剂上Pt负载量约为0.6%,Al2O_3载体上Pt颗粒尺寸更小,Pt/CeO_2的可还原性更强.甲苯催化氧化活性评价结果表明,Pt/CeO_2催化剂表现出更好的催化活性,T50=170℃,T90=190℃.通过UV-Raman、甲苯TPD、GC/MS、In-situ FTIR等手段进一步研究发现,Pt/CeO_2活化甲苯及反应供氧的机制与Pt/Al2O_3存在区别,其活性更好是因为:(1)负载在CeO_2表面存在高电子密度的Pt原子,具有更强的活化甲苯能力,可以直接使苯基和甲基间的C—C链发生断裂;(2)Pt的负载促进了CeO_2氧空位形成,进一步提高了CeO_2的储氧性能,加速氧循环.除了Pt解离气相氧之外,CeO_2还可以提供活性氧物种参与催化氧化甲苯的反应,进一步提高甲苯催化氧化效率.     

The impact of anger on creative process engagement: The role of social contexts

Drawing on the cognitive persistence perspective of creativity and conservation of resources theory, we investigated how 2 social contexts (perceived relationship conflict and coworker support for creativity) influence the relationship between anger and creative process engagement (CPE) in organizations. We tested our hypotheses using 422 daily surveys from 98 participants, collected over 5 consecutive workdays. The results show that anger perceived relationship conflict and coworker support for creativity interact to influence CPE. Specifically, when relationship conflict is high, the anger–CPE relationship is positive for employees who receive high coworker support for creativity, but negative for those who receive low coworker support for creativity. In contrast, when relationship conflict is low, the anger–CPE relationship is positive but does not differ at high versus low coworker support for creativity.