中国土地利用碳排放变化及协调分区

土地利用变化所产生的碳排放已成为地区碳排放的主要来源之一,为了探究其变化以全国30个省市为研究对象,基于2001～2019年MODIS的MCD12Q-LUCC数据,通过碳排放系数法,聚类与异常值分析法,从碳排放经济贡献系数、碳生态承载系数及二者的耦合协调关系等角度探讨了近19年间全国各省土地利用碳排放的空间特征并进行了分区研究.结果表明：(1) 2000～2019年全国土地利用碳排放量增长显著,但在2011年后碳排放量增长率变得平缓,而碳汇量的增长则相对缓慢,二者间的差距仍较大.(2)聚类与异常值分析显示研究期内全国各省市土地利用碳排放高值集聚中心由广东、江苏等省份转移到河北、山西、内蒙古等省份且集聚状态越来越明显.(3)全国各省市碳排放经济贡献系数呈现南高北低的空间特征,生态承载系数则呈现出由西高东低逐渐发展为中高东低,北部次之的特征,两者的耦合协调度呈现出下降的趋势.(4)本文基于碳排放经济贡献和碳生态承载,将各省划分为低碳保持区、经济发展区、碳汇发展区和综合优化区这4类,并提出各自的发展建议,争取实现碳中和与低碳可持续发展.     

基于MPSO-WLS-SVM的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测模型研究

为有效预防瓦斯灾害,以预测矿井瓦斯涌出量为研究目的,提出经改进的粒子群算法(MPSO)优化的加权最小二乘支持向量机(WLS-SVM),并用其预测非线性动态瓦斯涌出量。算法通过对WLS-SVM的正则化参数C和高斯核参数σ寻优,建立基于MPSO优化的WLS-SVM的瓦斯涌出量预测模型,并利用某矿井监测到的各项历史数据进行实例分析。试验结果表明:该预测模型预测的最大相对误差为5.99%,最小相对误差为0.43%,平均相对误差为2.95%,较其他预测模型有更强的泛化能力和更高的预测精度。     

Action-Oriented Support for Occupational Safety and Health Programs in Some Developing Countries in Asia

Action-oriented support programs have been increasingly playing vital roles in promoting safety and health in developing countries in Asia. This paper studied achievements of 3 action-oriented support programs: the WISE program for small enterprises, the WIND program for farmers, and the POSITIVE program for workers and trade unions. Special attention was paid to how the programs have strengthened local efforts for sustainable actions in safety and health improvements. The results showed that there were significant achievements in action-oriented support programs in the region, including a large number of improvement examples, integration into government policies, and network support through employers’ and workers’ organizations. Participatory, action-oriented training tools such as action-checklists, local good example photos, and group work methods played key roles in the effective implementation of the programs. It was of note that there were a number of local efforts to extend the coverage of action-oriented support even to hard-to-reach workers such as home-based workers, rural workers, and ethnic minorities. The efforts included the equal participation in the training by female and male farmers, shortened and weekend training programs, photo sheets showing local good examples, and reasonable fee collection for better sustainability. In conclusion, action-oriented support programs provided local people with concrete means to promote safety and health improvements. The successful programs commonly focused on local initiatives and were built on local wisdom and resources.     

The Inversion Method in Measuring Noise Emitted by Machines in Opencast Mines of Rock Material

The inversion method was used to test vibroacoustic processes in large-size machines used in opencast mines of rock material. When this method is used, the tested machine is replaced with a set of substitute sources, whose acoustic parameters are determined on the basis of sound pressure levels and phase shift angles of acoustic signals, measured with an array of 24 microphones. This article presents test results of a combine unit comprising a crusher and a vibrating sieve, for which an acoustic model of 7 substitute sources was developed with the inversion method.     

Integrated Freshwater Solutions — A New Zealand Application of Mediated Modeling

Mediated Modeling (MM) refers to “model building with stakeholders,” enabling collaborative learning and decision support. This article presents results from the Integrated Freshwater Solutions (IFS — www.ifs.org.nz ) action research project in the Manawatū River watershed, New Zealand. Water quality in the watershed often rates poorly, with the key issues being sedimentation, eutrophication, and habitat destruction. IFS is to develop and test MM to support collaborative and adaptive freshwater management. The project team was presented with the opportunity to collaborate with the Manawatū River Leaders' Forum (MRLF), an initiative driven by the Regional Council to improve water quality. This article describes the process of MM and how it was adapted to meet the needs of MRLF stakeholders. This highlights some important conditions for collaborative and adaptive capacity building. The MM/MRLF stakeholders, represented: industry, farming, local and regional authorities, environmental groups, and indigenous Māori iwi/hapū (tribe/sub‐tribe). This article describes how MM assisted early in the collaborative process to develop the following: (1) a shared and more integrated understanding of causes and effects and (2) a sense of the order of magnitude of the problems and the impact proposed solutions might have. It also describes how the context of politics, time, and resource constraints played an important role reverting to a more traditional planning approach part way through the process.     

The effects of perceived organizational support,perceived supervisor support and perceived co-worker support on safety and health compliance

Although knowledge is cumulating, very little is known about the effects of various sources of support on safety and health compliance. This study goes beyond previous research by investigating the relationships among perceived support from organizations, supervisors and co-workers, and employees’ safety and health compliance behaviour at chemical and petroleum process plants. The results of this study show that the support from organizations, supervisors and co-workers was significantly related to employees’ safety and health compliance. Also, the findings reveal that perceived supervisor support has the strongest influence in ensuring employees’ safety and health compliance behaviour.     

支持向量机在边坡稳定性预测中的应用

针对离子型稀土原地浸矿边坡稳定性问题的小样本、非线性等特点,采用一种边坡稳定性预测模型——支持向量机(SVM)模型,分别使用网格参数寻优、遗传算法(GA)参数寻优、粒子群(PSO)寻优算法来计算SVM模型的参数,分析比较3种算法得到的参数,确定最适合离子型稀土原地浸矿边坡稳定性预测的SVM回归模型的参数寻优算法。     

When are overqualified employees creative? It depends on contextual factors

The research on perceived overqualification has mainly examined its negative consequences. Defined, employees who feel overqualified have surplus talent and thus can be excellent workers if managed properly; yet, empirical evidence in this domain is lacking. Building on person–environment fit theory, this research explored whether, when, and how employees who feel overqualified can engage in creative performance. The results of a multi‐source field study (N = 113 employees and 19 supervisors) supported theoretical predictions. Perceived overqualification was related positively to supervisor‐rated creative performance when these workers felt supported and appreciated and successfully negotiated developmental idiosyncratic deals. Opportunities to mentor others had an impact on the relationship between perceived overqualification and supervisor‐rated creativity, although the simple slopes were non‐significant. This study is novel in that it unpacked actionable steps that organizations can utilize to motivate this large segment of workforce to use their surplus qualifications constructively by, for example, engaging in creative performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于集对论和主客观综合赋权法的装备保障能力评估研究

目的提出一种基于集对论和主客观赋权法的装备保障能力评估方法。方法针对装备保障能力评估中存在的诸多不确定问题,构建装备保障能力评估指标体系,基于集对论思想建立装备保障能力集对评估模型。结果通过构造一个双目标决策问题,进行主客观综合赋权确定指标权重,使得评估指标权重向量同时反映了主观程度和客观程度。结论该方法通过联系度量化了评估指标的确定程度,提高了评估结果的可信性,对解决装备保障能力评估中不确定性问题具有很强的指导作用。     

基于风险矢量图的多场景保护层分析方法研究*

为解决多场景保护层分析（LOPA）存在的问题,建立风险矢量导图,将事故场景、独立保护层、修正因子、事故后果发生频率等因素进行系统分析,分别采用最大值法求和法计算后果发生频率,探讨多重初始事件导致事故发生频率的最优计算方法;阐述点火源、暴露因子以及致死概率等修正因子的使用方法并提出改进建议,避免常规LOPA下致死概率过高的问题。以柴油加氢装置原料油缓冲罐液位过高风险点为例,进行多场景LOPA,应用综合计算法得出多重初始事件导致的液位高后果失效频率为3.2E-02。结果表明:风险矢量导图和正确使用修正因子可有效提高LOPA的质量;不同初始事件导致的场景失效频率值相差较大或存在共用保护层的情况适用最大值法,其他情况则可采用求和法;如果多场景同时适用最大值法和求和法,则采用综合计算法;求和法过于保守,最大值法过于乐观,综合计算法更为准确。