DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELED SURPLUS AND USGS-MEASURED DISCHARGE IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BASIN,LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: A one-layer decreasing-availability monthly water balance model is used to estimate monthly surplus that flows into the Lake Pontchartrain Basin from the Amite, Tickfaw, Natalbany, Tangipahoa, and Tchefuncte Rivers for water years 1949 through 1990. The modeled annual surplus for each drainage basin is compared to gauged annual discharge obtained from the United States Geological Survey. This provides an estimate of the differential success of the model over watersheds of various sizes, and also suggests appropriate adjustment factors to be used in future water balance analyses of similar basins in humid subtropical climate regions. Results show that annual surplus values agree well with the USGS values, after an annual adjustment of about 140 mm (11 to 28 percent of the basin surplus) is subtracted from the annual modeled totals to compensate for overestimation by the model. However, inter-annual variability is high in the annual cycles. Winter and spring discharges can also be modeled successfully.     

REGIONAL SCALE TREND MONITORING OF INDICATORS OF TROPHIC CONDITION OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a sample survey design to answer questions about the ecological condition and trends in condition of U.S. ecological resources. To meet the objectives, the design relies on a probability sample of the resource population of interest (e.g., a random sample of lakes) each year on which measurements are made during an index period. Natural spatial and temporal variability and variability in the sampling process all affect the ability to describe the status of a population and the sensitivity for trend detection. We describe the important components of variance and estimate their magnitude for indicators of trophic condition of lakes to illustrate the process. We also describe models for trend detection and use them to demonstrate the sensitivity of the proposed design to detect trends. If the variance structure that develops during the probability surveys is like that synthesized from available databases and the literature, then the trends in common indicators of trophic condition of the specified magnitude should be detectable within about a decade for Secchi disk transparency (0.5–1 percentiyear) and total phosphorus (2–3 percent/year), but not for chlorophyll-a (> 3–4 percent/year), which will take longer.     

Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

A COMPARISON OF METHODS OF ESTIMATING MEAN WATERSHED SLOPE1

ABSTRACT: Ten topographic analysis methods were employed to estimate watershed mean slopes for 13 small forested watersheds (32 to 131 mi²) in East Texas. Of the ten methods employed, the mean slope curve is the most accurate but also the most tedious and laborious one. The method can be simplified by measuring only the lengths of five contours and the areas between these contours within the watershed with little loss of its accuracy. Watershed slopes estimated by the contour length method, the grid contour method, the systematic slope sampling method, and the simplified contour length method are satisfactory for general purposes and relatively simple. The watershed circumference-stream length method, the length-width axis method, the Justin method, and the regression plane method are not suitable for estimating watershed slopes in East Texas without modification.     

STORM RUNOFF CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAZED WATERSHEDS IN EASTERN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: Rainfall and runoff data from 485 storms during the summers of 1979–84 were evaluated to characterize storm runoff volumes (SF) and peak flows (QP) for 13 small watersheds in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon and to determine differences among grazing intensities and vegetation types. Storm hydrographs were separated by using watershed-specific baseflow rise rates of 0.002–0.013 cfsm/hr. Median SF and QP were 0.0014 in and 0.43 cfsm, respectively, for all storms. Total storm rainfall (PPT) and initial flow (QI) were important stepwise regression variables in accounting for the variation in SF and peak flow above initial flow (QPI); 30- and 60-mm rainfall intensities and rainfall duration were relatively unimportant. Two classes of vegetation were evaluated: (1) western larch-Douglas-fir (nine watersheds), and (2) other (four watersheds representing fir-spruce, lodgepole pine, mountain meadow, and ponderosa pine). Mean SF and QP did not differ (P=0.05) among vegetation classes but significant differences were apparent in the relation of SF to PPT and QI, and QPI to PPT and QI. As PPT and QI increased, SF and QPI from larch-Douglas-fir watersheds increased at a slower rate than they did from the other watersheds. Four levels of grazing intensity had no effect on storm runoff.     

FLOWING WATER RESOURCES1

Using data related to stream order and the morphological characteristics associated with streams of different discharge rates, an estimate of the river resources of the United States is made. The national totals are: 3,200,000 miles total length of rivers; 15,000 square miles of river surface; and 29 cubic miles of water stored in river channels. Using the same techniques, more exact estimates may be made for individual river basins. Suggestions are given for application of the techniques and river data in the management of water resources.     

ADVANCES IN THE BOUNDARY INTEGRAL EQUATION METHOD IN SUBSURFACE FLOW1

ABSTRACT: This paper explores some of the advances of the boundary element method, as applied to ground-water problems, during the last five years. Although the method is still somewhat limited compared to solution by finite elements, the range of solutions has increased considerably. Diffusion and advection-diffusion solutions are done efficiently. These include the incorporation of inhomogeneity, anisotropy, and nonlinear diffusion. The difficult problem of stream-aquifer interaction is an important application as it is much easier to follow a free surface with its multiple configurations. The application must be able to cycle between ground-water connection and disconnection with the stream and include seepage surfaces. Flow in fractured media is a natural application where the flow in fractures can usually be treated without a computational exception in spite of extremely high aspect ratios. The case of seawater intrusion forms a type of free surface problem and thus is a case for which the method has special advantages. For these and other applications the boundary element method provides an inexpensive technique for calculation where the data preparation and setup time is minimal. In most of these cases, programs can and have been written on microcomputers.     

NONLINEAR SOLUTIONS OF THE BQUSSINESQ EQUATION AND COMPARISONS WITH FIELD OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Two models based on variations of the one dimensional Boussinesq equation are presented. The models are formulated by treating each of the two nonlinearities appearing in the equation separately, and the resulting equations are solved by implicit finite difference techniques. The models have been used to predict drawdowns created from large scale pumping at an open coal mine pit dewatering project in Poland. The predictions were found to be in good agreement with data collected over a period of seven years.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED MONTHLY RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Two dimensional sliding polynomials were adapted to pattern analysis of watershed monthly rainfall and runoff. Contours of runoff in the two-dimensional space of time and rainfall are constructed on a grid of 16 nodes whose values are determined by least squares. This method is form free, hence derived patterns are not biased to selected functional forms, but can directly represent the smoothed data. Values of the nodes are localized averages of the data constrained by required mathematical continuity across the grid of values. An advantage of the method is that the standard deviation can be calculated for each node, thus producing patterns of uncertainty of the deterministic component revealed by the data.