村级水资源的管理与利用研究--来自南方四个村的案例分析

农村水资源及其相关设施的改革需要更多了解村和户层次上的现实状况和机制安排。以避免改革扭曲和失败。通过对湖北和广西共四个村的村委会、关键知情人及120个农户的调查。在村和农户两个层次上描述水资源及其相关设施的管理与利用，尤其是在干旱年份村和户所采取的策略。并深入分析了农村村级水资源管理与利用的制度安排与问题。得出的结论是。追求水利管理效率的市场化改革需要考虑干旱的威胁，要有基于风险的制度设计和法律保障。     

山东省矿产资源可持续利用面临的困境及解决途径

山东省正处于工业化的中期阶段。矿产资源可持续利用面临重大挑战。本文分析了我国矿业大省——山东省的矿产资源开发利用存在的问题。提出山东省提高矿产资源的保障能力、促进矿产资源可持续利用的对策建议。     

DESIGN OF AN INDEX OF WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the formulation of an Index of Water Quality to evaluate the level of pollution in fresh water. A Four-Round Delphi equation, using a panel of seven nationally recognized water scientists, was performed to ascertain the pollutants to be included in the index, the relationship between the quantity of these pollutants in the water and the resulting quality of the water, and the importance of each pollution variable to each water use as well as to overall pollution. A multiplicative index was used to bring the pollutants together into one system.     

Paleoecology and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Central Evenkia during the past 2400 years

New data on the composition of surface assemblages of plant macroremains from soil and swamp samples have been obtained in the study of geomorphologically different localities in the middle reaches of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River. The results of paleocarpological analysis of forest soil sections supported by relevant palynological and geochronological data are presented. Natural changes of the forest cover over the past 2400 years and quantitative characteristics of the paleoclimate during each stage are described.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 3–10.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Koshkarova, Koshkarov.     

Towards a smallholder hydrology for equitable and sustainable water management

Situations of water scarcity challenge sustainability and threaten small users' access to water. In response to this problem, there has been a search for a method of hydrological analysis that can better represent the needs of small water users. While this search is rooted in the debate favouring a more participatory and inclusive allocation of the resource, it also requires a new focus on smallholder hydrology that can confront the gaps and biases found in current hydrological practices in many countries. This article looks at past hydrological practices and also at results of recent studies, highlighting the perspective of smallholder irrigators in surface water planning in Zimbabwe, and groundwater planning in India. These case studies show that wider social forces, not always best science, drive hydrological practices. However, new frameworks focusing on the water user can emerge for more equitable and sustainable water management.     

论土地持续利用

在世界上有两种可持续发展思路，一种是西方发达国家的重保护的可持续发展思路；一种是以发展为前提，保护自然资源的可持续发展思路。土地持续利用的思想是在可持续发展的进程中不断发展的。我国要保证土地持续利用，满足未来对食粮和建设的需求，应建立起同土地持续利用相适应的土地持续利用制度和土地持续利用机制     

Co-ordination for disasters

This paper was prepared in 1978 on the basis of a review of sociological and anthropological fieldwork conducted up to that time. Although theoretical in presentation its conclusions are formulated in accordance with the author's own extensive observations of organizational response to natural disasters in developing countries, especially those having sudden onset. Practical implications for co-ordination agencies and pre-disaster training are drawn.     

激励相容理论视角下生态公益林补偿对农户的增收效应——以福建三明为例

基于福建三明499户农户的实地调查数据,用倾向得分匹配法测算了生态公益林现金直接补偿和岗位性补偿对农户的增收效应,结果表明：现金直接补偿和岗位性补偿对生态保护和农户增收都是正效应。现金直接补偿对农户增收效应不显著,而岗位性补偿对农户家庭总收入和家庭人均收入的净效应分别达55.4%和57%。进一步研究发现,两种补偿方式对贫困户和非贫困户的增收效应也不尽相同,其中现金直接补偿不利于贫困户增收,而岗位性补偿对不同收入的农户都具有正向显著增收效应。此外,从生态公益林的根本使命出发,可以发现现金直接补偿和岗位性补偿对生态保护的净效应也存在较大差异。故此,科学规划生态补偿方式和补偿标准是实现生态保护和农户增收双重效应的根源所在。     

基于RF-LSTM的鸡舍恶臭气体预测研究

以鸡舍氨气为研究对象,对鸡舍氨气预测模型进行了研究.首先,利用随机森林算法（RF）对影响鸡舍氨气浓度的环境变量进行重要性排序,选取温度、湿度、光照、气象温度、降雨量作为模型的输入变量;在此基础上,构建了基于长短时记忆神经网络（LSTM）的鸡舍氨气浓度预测模型,并将提出的预测模型应用于江苏省宜兴市某养鸡场的氨气浓度预测中,并与LSTM模型、RF-Elman模型和RF-BP模型进行了对比实验,结果表明,基于RF-LSTM模型的预测效果最好,其平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对百分误差（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）分别为0.9183、4.9637%和1.4262;同时,为了验证该模型的性能,本文还实现了不同时间尺度的鸡舍氨气浓度预测,提前2h、3h、4h、5h氨气预测的平均绝对误差（MAE）分别为1.6218、2.1991、2.8553和3.0677.本文提出的预测模型提高了鸡舍氨气浓度的预测精度,可为减少鸡舍恶臭气体排放提供科学依据.     

外加氮源影响下铁铝氧化物在土壤氮素转化中的作用

土壤中铁铝氧化物在团聚体稳定性和有机碳吸附方面具有重要作用,而氮添加对土壤氮循环影响的变化也可能与其有关,但是目前尚缺乏在氮循环方面的研究.为了探究铁铝氧化物在土壤氮素转化中的作用,选择福建省建瓯罗浮栲森林土壤为研究对象,采用选择性溶提技术准备不同的土壤——未经处理（T1）的土壤和去除游离态铁铝氧化物（T2）土壤、去除非晶质铁铝氧化物（T3）土壤、去除络合态铁铝氧化物（T4）土壤,在这些土壤中添加不同形态氮（40 mg/kg）——丙氨酸（氨基酸态氮,AA）、硫酸铵（铵态氮,AN）、硝酸钠（硝态氮,NAN）和亚硝酸钠（亚硝态氮,NIN）,进行室内培养试验,分析氮含量变化和氮素转化情况.结果表明:①与CK处理相比,AA和AN处理均增加了T1土壤中w（NH₄+-N）,NAN处理增加了w（NO₃--N）,但低于添加量,表明添加氨基酸和铵态氮均会促进氮矿化,添加硝态氮会增加NO₃--N的固定且抑制其硝化.②在CK处理下,与T1土壤相比,T2和T4土壤中w（NH₄+-N）、w（NO₃--N）和w（氨基酸）均降低,但T3土壤中w（NH₄+-N）和w（氨基酸）增加、w（NO₃--N）降低,表明土壤中游离态氧化铁铝和络合态氧化铁铝的存在有助于氮素矿化,非晶质氧化铁铝有助于硝化.③在不同氮处理下,各土壤的氮含量及其转化速率与CK处理规律相似.与CK处理相比,各氮处理均未显著增加T2和T4土壤中w（NH₄+-N）,且AA和AN处理均未影响T2、T3和T4土壤中w（NO₃--N）和w（氨基酸）.结果显示,氮添加并没有改变铁铝氧化物的作用,其中,矿化和氨化作用均表现为游离氧化铁铝>络合氧化铁铝>非晶质氧化铁铝,硝化作用表现为非晶质氧化铁铝>游离氧化铁铝>络合态氧化铁铝.因此,土壤铁铝氧化物的不同存在状态应该是调节氮素转化的重要土壤条件.