珠江三角洲秋季典型O3污染的气象条件及贡献量化

利用自组织神经网络分析法,对珠江三角洲2013~2017年秋季海平面气压和全风速场进行大样本客观分型.结果表明,影响O₃的天气类型共有7种,由污染程度高低分为高、中、低3类,对应的平均O₃超标率分别为32.3%, 12.0%和4.2%.对比2017年和2016年秋季O₃污染天气分型下促发O₃污染的气象因子差异,2017年秋季高污染型O₃天气形势出现的天数比2016年增多,且中污染型天气形势出现时,2017年的局地污染气象条件更为不利.采用WRF-CAMx模式通过改变气象场输入来量化气象条件贡献,并用实测变化减去气象变化以推算排放贡献.结果表明,气象条件变化导致O₃浓度上升的贡献率为29.8%,而排放的变化引起O₃浓度下降的贡献率为7.1%.在2017年秋季开展的O₃污染防治专项行动指导下的珠江三角洲O₃前体物控制措施,有效缓解了部分由于不利气象条件而引起的O₃污染浓度上升.不利气象条件是导致2017年秋季O₃浓度升高的重要成因.     

北京极端天气事件及其与区域气候变化的联系

应用逐日观测资料分析了北京极端天气事件的变化及其与区域气候变暖的可能联系，得到了如下结论：（1）近30多年来高温和闷热事件在增加，低温、大风、雷暴和大雾事件在减少，暴雨和沙尘暴的出现频率无明显的变化。（2）高温、闷热、低温、大风、雷暴和大雾存在着较强的年际变化，但不具有明显的周期性特征，暴雨和沙尘暴事件分别存在10年和8～10年的主周期变化。（3）年平均气温和高温、闷热、低温、大风等极端事件之间存在着较强的相关性，这些极端天气事件的变化与区域气候变暖关系密切。     

华北区域大气污染过程中天气型和输送路径分析

以2003年10月2—12日一次大气污染过程为例,分析华北区域大气污染过程中主要天气型及污染物输送路径.结果表明:区域内大部分城市API上升阶段,以西南输送路径为主;API下降阶段,受纬向锋区影响,以东北气流为主,污染物从北向南扩散,区域内各城市空气质量好转.统计2003年9—12月7次大气污染过程发现,当华北地区为大尺度高气压控制时,若高压中心位于山西南部,河北为弱的低气压区(地形槽)时,将导致西南风气流盛行该区域.受地形和天气型控制,西南方向的输送通道是引起北京大气污染过程的主要通道.      

重庆市春节期间典型空气污染过程分析

对重庆主城区2001—2012年春节期间空气质量的变化特征进行分析,并利用气象观测资料以及TAMP模式分析了2006年春节期间中度污染个例的天气形势。结果表明,2006年鞭炮燃放解禁前后,除夕到初一空气污染指数的变化情况出现了明显差异,特别是2006年达到了中度污染。利用气象观测资料分析2006年春节大尺度环流背景发现,29日高空为偏西气流,地面受均压场控制,不利于污染物随大气扩散,近地层形成了很明显的逆温,使得污染状况更加严重。利用TAMP模式模拟此次过程,与实况对比分析了TAMP模式模拟出的8:00沙坪坝站温度的垂直变化情况,发现TAMP模式能较好地反映出近地层的大气状况。TAMP模式输出的地面风场显示,在鞭炮燃放的高峰期,在渝中半岛以及长江以南沿江地区形成了偏北气流与偏东气流的辐合,主城区的风向辐合以及较小的风速,使得鞭炮燃放产生的污染物无法及时扩散,而近地层平均动能和湍流动能都维持一个很小的值,同样抑制了污染物的扩散。     

基于天气背景天津地区重污染天气特征分析

以天津地区长序列观测PM_(2.5)质量浓度资料为依托,基于天气背景对2014—2016年天津地区重污染天气特征进行分析,并以此为基础评估天津环境气象数值模式(WRF/Chem)在不同天气条件下的模拟效果.结果显示:2009—2016年天津地区重污染天气为341 d,约占全部天数的11.7%,重污染天气主要出现在每年的10月—次年3月,约占全年的82%,重污染天气出现的地面形势主要为锋前低压区、低压槽前、均压场和高压后,4类天气类型占所有重污染天气的73%.同一天气背景下,PM_(2.5)质量浓度模拟值与实况值之间的误差有相似之处,低压槽天气时细颗粒污染浓度模拟明显偏低;冷锋前低压区、华北地形槽和低压过程模拟值略有偏低;高压前和高压底天气模拟值略微偏高;数值模式天津地区重污染TS(Threat score)评分为0.68,漏报与低压槽辐合线模拟位置偏差、冷空气受污染反馈作用影响、小尺度闭合低压区未准确模拟3个因素密切相关;空报主要与冷空气过程影响时间模拟偏差、高压中心位置偏差及其输送通道建立时间影响密切相关.     

SPATIAL COMPARABILITY OF THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index, which is intended to be of reasonable comparable local significance both in space and time, has been extensively used as a measure of drought for both agricultural and water resource management. This study examines the spatial comparability of Palmer's (1965) definition of severe and extreme drought. Index values have been computed for 1035 sites with at least 60 years of record that are scattered across the contiguous United States, and quantile values corresponding to a specified index value were calculated for given months and then mapped. The analyses show that severe or extreme droughts, as defined by Palmer (1965), are not spatially comparable in terms of identifying rare events. The wide variation across the country in the frequency of occurrence of Palmer's (1965) extreme droughts reflects the differences in the variability of precipitation, as well as the average amount of precipitation. It is recommended first, that a drought index be developed which considers both variability and averages; and second, that water resource managers and planners define a drought in terms of an index value that corresponds to the expected quantile (return period) of the event.     

海南岛大气污染物扩散特征

研究热带海岛大气环境污染的特殊性对于发展中的海岛大气环境规划和保护具有重要意义。通过采用统计分析方法、数值模拟和天气学分析方法,对海南省海口市大气污染物PM10的分布特征和大气污染的气象条件进行了研究。结果表明:海口市PM10存在春秋冬高、夏低的季节性差异,并受区域环境的影响较大;外来源输入和大陆冷高压是造成海口市大气污染的主要原因。采用CALPUFF模型模拟不同空间位置污染源对环境影响大小,结果显示不同空间位置的中架源的扩散特征差异较大,海南岛海岸线附近以及18.89°N,19.07°N,19.34°N,19.52°N 4个区域为敏感源区域。     

珠三角地区臭氧来源特征的数值模拟研究

采用WRF/CAMx模型及臭氧源解析技术(OSAT)模块研究珠三角地区臭氧季节性时空分布特征,对不同污染天气型下的臭氧来源进行解析,评估珠三角各城市臭氧暴露水平,并探究如何根据实际天气状况为不同城市提出切实有效的管控措施.研究结果表明,珠三角地区臭氧浓度遵循夏秋季高、冬季低的季节变化特征.在所有季节中,珠三角地区以外的...     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN A SHALLOW COASTAL ESTUARY DURING THE WINTER SEASON1

ABSTRACT: This project analyzes suspended sediment flux through the upper Barataria basin in Louisiana during the winter season defined from November through April. The Barataria is a shallow coastal estuary located in southeastern Louisiana. The controls exerted by environmental parameters (such as wind or atmospheric pressure) in wetlands‐shallow bay ecosystems on transport of water and sediment were examined. Water samples were taken at a bayou (which serve as the inlet for flow to the estuary) on a regular basis. These samples were analyzed for total suspended solids and volatile suspended solids. Velocity, depth, temperature, salinity, conductivity, and meteorological measurements were all recorded at the time of each sampling. A multi‐parameter field probe was employed to continually monitor turbidity, water level, conductivity, and temperature during frontal events. These data were used in a regression analysis to examine the factors that drive carbon flux in the region. Investigations have determined that synoptic climate and prevailing weather conditions explain much of the variations in water levels, flow circulation patterns, salinity, and suspended sediment. Relatively small amounts of sediment appear to leave the estuary during normal tidal activity, but winter storm fronts result in significant fluxes of sediment in both up‐basin and down‐basin directions.     

IMPLICATIONS OF FEEDBACK PROCESSES IN PLANT WATER USAGE AND RESULTING CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has the secondary effect on plants of reducing transpiration. The degree of reduction in transpiration has been studied mostly at the leaf scale and as such, has not taken feedbacks into account that come into play when the plant canopy or the atmosphere as a whole is considered. The objective of this paper is to examine the role of negative feedback processes that act through the dynamics of the canopy and the atmosphere. This is done through the application of two canopy models, one of which is later coupled to a full Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) called GENESIS. The results suggest that the reduction in transpiration in a double CO₂ environment compared to present day will not be as considerable as the leaf scale experiments suggest ‐ a 7 percent reduction compared to 15 to 57 percent when feedbacks are considered. At the regional scale, precipitation patterns appear to be the primary factor in determining evapotranspiration. The implications for agriculture, in terms of water usage, would therefore not seem to be as acute as the leaf scale experiments depict. Regarding climate change, there is a suggestion that regional water usage may vary from present day values in certain areas.