基于静止卫星GOCI传感器的大气污染过程AOD监测

针对北京及周边地区2017年11月2~8日的一次污染过程,利用韩国静止卫星COMs1GOCI数据,对北京地区进行AOD监测.AOD反演采用时间序列迭代算法,根据地表反射率随时间慢变而大气气溶胶随时间快变的理论,采取最小值拟合的方式,获取气溶胶光学厚度数据.反演结果与地基AERONET监测结果具有很好的一致性,两者的相关系数R²大于0.89.AOD监测结果表明,GOCI传感器1次/h的监测频率,可以很好地展现北京地区大气污染过程的开始,发展及消散过程,可以展示出一天之内AOD的变化,为大气污染监测以及气候变化研究提供依据.     

我国中部地区大气CO2柱浓度时空分布

基于日本GOSAT及美国AIRS反演数据产品,对我国中部六省大气CO₂时空分布特征进行研究,结果表明：由GOSAT反演的中部地区2010~2013年大气CO₂年均柱浓度由389.36×10^-6增长到396.52×10^-6,年均绝对增长率达2.39×10^-6/a,呈现出冬春季高值、夏秋季低值的季节变化特征,其柱浓度年均值及去长期趋势后的月均值均略低于长三角地区,高于京津冀和东三省地区;其CO₂柱浓度高值区集中在湖南、江西及周边一带,年均绝对增长率为2.01×10^-6,其柱浓度年均值及去长期趋势后的月均值与长三角地区相当,略低于京津冀和东三省地区,由于受地面源汇影响较小,其与GOSAT反演结果相反,可能是由于AIRS反映了对流层中层大气状况,而GOSAT则更多地反映了近地面层大气CO₂变化.     

考虑边界条件不确定性的地下水污染风险分析

为分析边界条件不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,运用Monte Carlo方法对一算例进行阐明,并从污染风险预报方面对模拟结果进行分析.为减少重复调用模拟模型产生的大量计算负荷,将边界条件（第一类边界条件-水头值）作为随机变量,建立地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Kriging替代模型,在保证较高精度的同时,实现了Monte Carlo模拟.结果表明：边界条件的不确定性,对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型预报的结果有很大影响,考虑与未考虑边界条件不确定性得到的研究区污染羽分布差别较大.对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Monte Carlo模拟结果进行统计与分析,可以评估研究区观测井1,2,3污染物浓度预报结果的可靠程度,并且可以预报出研究区观测井1,2,3遭受不同程度污染的风险.     

兰州地区大气臭氧时空变化及影响因素研究

本文采用OMI臭氧遥感数据,结合甲醛垂直柱浓度、气象数据以及经济数据,分析了2005~2015年兰州地区臭氧柱浓度时空变化格局,并探索了影响臭氧的新气象因子,总结达到臭氧污染的日照、气压等气象条件,确定影响臭氧柱浓度的主要人为源并确定其限域。结果表明:1)2005~2015年夏季柱浓度值最高,冬季、秋季次之,春季最低;夏季波动幅度最大,其余三季波动幅度较小且平稳。2)11年中,臭氧柱浓度具有较大的波动。2005年至2010年快速增长到最高值331.997 DU。2010年之后,臭氧柱浓度缓慢下降,2014年起有回升趋势。3)OMI遥感数据具有较高的可靠性,并根据AQI的线性关系划分了臭氧柱浓度的污染等级。结果指示了11年大气臭氧空间变化,2005~2009年5年间研究区全区空气质量一直处于良,2010年全区轻度污染,后两年污染逐渐减弱,2013~2015年全区恢复至良。4)根据兰州发展的趋势以及周边城市的关系,划分了兰州经济圈及功能区,并结合臭氧柱浓度空间分布图得出臭氧污染与经济特征的密切关系。5)正弦模型拟合后臭氧柱浓度变化趋势呈不明显的周期性,说明臭氧的人为来源贡献较大。6)创新探索影响臭氧污染的新气象因子(日照、气压等参数),并确定其重要人为源限域。     

Monitoring Air Quality in Mountains: Designing an Effective Network

A quantitatively robust yet parsimonious air-quality monitoring network in mountainous regions requires special attention to relevant spatial and temporal scales of measurement and inference. The design of monitoring networks should focus on the objectives required by public agencies, namely: 1) determine if some threshold has been exceeded (e.g., for regulatory purposes), and 2) identify spatial patterns and temporal trends (e.g., to protect natural resources). A short-term, multi-scale assessment to quantify spatial variability in air quality is a valuable asset in designing a network, in conjunction with an evaluation of existing data and simulation-model output. A recent assessment in Washington state (USA) quantified spatial variability in tropospheric ozone distribution ranging from a single watershed to the western third of the state. Spatial and temporal coherence in ozone exposure modified by predictable elevational relationships ( 1.3 ppbv ozone per 100 m elevation gain) extends from urban areas to the crest of the Cascade Range. This suggests that a sparse network of permanent analyzers is sufficient at all spatial scales, with the option of periodic intensive measurements to validate network design. It is imperative that agencies cooperate in the design of monitoring networks in mountainous regions to optimize data collection and financial efficiencies.     

Economic development and environmental protection: an ecological economics perspective

This paper argues on both theoretical and empirical grounds that, beyond a certain point, there is an unavoidable conflictbetween economic development (generally taken to mean 'materialeconomic growth') and environmental protection. Think for a moment of natural forests, grasslands, marine estuaries, salt marshes, and coral reefs; and of arable soils, aquifers, mineraldeposits, petroleum, and coal. These are all forms of 'natural capital' that represent highly-ordered self-producing ecosystemsor rich accumulations of energy/matter with high use potential (low entropy). Now contemplate despoiled landscapes, eroding farmlands, depleted fisheries, anthropogenic greenhouse gases,acid rain, poisonous mine tailings and toxic synthetic compounds.These all represent disordered systems or degraded forms of energy and matter with little use potential (high entropy). The main thing connecting these two states is human economic activity. Ecological economics interprets the environment-economyrelationship in terms of the second law of thermodynamics. The second law sees economic activity as a dissipative process. Fromthis perspective, the production of economic goods andservices invariably requires the consumption of available energy and matter. To grow and develop, the economynecessarily 'feeds' on sources of high-quality energy/matter first produced by nature. This tends to disorder and homogenizethe ecosphere, The ascendance of humankind has consistently been accompanied by an accelerating rate of ecological degradation, particularly biodiversity loss, the simplificationof natural systems and pollution. In short, contemporary political rhetoric to the contrary, the prevailing growth-oriented global development paradigm is fundamentally incompatible with long-term ecological and social sustainability. Unsustainability is not a technical nor economic problem as usually conceived, but rather a state of systemic incompatibilitybetween a economy that is a fully-contained, growing, dependent sub-system of a non-growing ecosphere. Potential solutions fly inthe face of contemporary development trends and cultural values.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Large-scale mercury variations in Lake Vänern (Sweden) 1974-98

Lake V?nern, the largest lake in Sweden, has been seriously contaminated with mercury during the 20th century. In the 1970's and 80's the direct load, mainly from a chlor-alkali industry in the area, of mercury was drastically reduced as a response to new legislation, from three to five tons down to between five and ten kg yr(-1). Large amounts of the disposed pollutant have accumulated in the sediments. The question posed in this work is now, is the effect of the drastic load reduction after more than two decades visible in the sediments? The question is relevant as large areas still are blacklisted for fishing, but also as a follow-up of a major remedy action. The lake also serves as a freshwater reservoir for even Sweden's second largest city. This work synthesises and compares data of mercury in the sediments from three major field programs, in 1974, 1984 and 1998. The interest is focused on both spatial heterogeneity and temporal trends. In 1974, the surface concentrations are significantly higher than in subsequent surveys. Significant differences are also found between 1984 and 1998. Significant spatial differences within the lake are found for respective year. The most contaminated area is located in the north, close to the major point source (a former chlor-alkali industry). This is also the area with the largest improvement, as a direct response to the reduction in load. Further from the outlet, the recovery is more affected by burial and transport processes out into the deeper basins.     

Aerosol Scavenging: Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis in the Indian Context

Sulfate aerosols have been found to bethe major contributors to precipitation acidity. Thus,in view of the long-term ecological repercussions theyhave on aquatic ecosystems and their acidity-potential,the present analysis focuses on a case study applicationof the layer-averaged aerosol-scavenging model (Okita et al., 1996) for predicting values of the wet scavengingcoefficient and sulfate concentrations in precipitationsamples on the basis of the information available forsome selected Indian cities. Through sensitivityanalysis (Pandey et al., 1997) the scavengingcoefficient has been found to be very strongly dependenton precipitation intensity. Comparison of modelpredictions has been done with the measured values forDelhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai in India.     

Prediction of Leachate Level in Kimpo Metropolitan Landfill Site by Total Water Balance

Kimpo metropolitan landfill has received various kinds of wastessince January 1992. The leachate level was measured to be 10.3 m in May 1995 and the level increased to 12.2 m in August 1996. Therefore, to prove the reason for the increasing leachate level, we calibrated hydraulic conductivity of each waste andintermediate layer using the HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation ofLandfill Performance) model. The leachate generation data measured from February 1993 to October 1995 was used in the model calibration. As a result of a model calibration, we obtained anaverage infiltration ratio and used this in analysis of the total water balance to predict elevation of leachate level. Main causes of the elevation of the leachate level were the high water content of the waste and the degradation of the leachate-drainage system caused by the subsidence of a naturalbarrier layer.