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211.
Peter G. Ashton James B. Pickens Coryell Ohlander Bruce Benninghoff 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1980,16(4):738-744
ABSTRACT: Decisionmaking associated with the Nation's 1.7 billion acres of forest and range land has become increasingly complicated because of the rise in competition for resource use and in the awareness of environmental and social effects. This system analysis approach uses four models to synthesize pertinent masses of information into measures of economic, environmental, and social impacts. The system results can be used to help evaluate alternative national programs. The models are:
212.
溆浦县枣业发展的SWOT分析及对策探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
围绕溆浦县枣业发展的现状,运用SWOT分析方法指出该县枣业发展的优势、劣势、机会和威胁,并针对该县枣业发展的问题提出了对策。 相似文献
213.
Christopher M. Smemoe E. James Nelson Alan K. Zundel A. Woodruff Miller 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2007,43(2):359-371
Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality. 相似文献
214.
215.
本文研究了基于综合应用人工神经网络和演化算法的位移反演分析方法,并将此方法应用于三峡茅坪溪沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝的变形反演分析中。以茅坪溪一期工程原型观测成果为依据,反演出能够正确反映坝体变形特性的邓肯-张EB模型参数,从而预测了施工期末和蓄水期末该坝的变形特性,并基于总应力法研究了心墙水力劈裂破坏发生的可能性,为茅坪溪堆石坝运行期的安全生产提供依据。研究结果表明,茅坪溪心墙堆石坝不会发生水力劈裂破坏,该坝蓄水后虽然水压上升,但心墙仍是安全的。 相似文献
216.
Forest growth models are useful tools for investigating the long-term impacts of logging. In this paper, the results of the rain forest growth model FORMIND were assessed by a multicriteria decision analysis. The main processes covered by FORMIND include tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. Tree growth is calculated based on a carbon balance approach. Trees compete for light and space; dying large trees fall down and create gaps in the forest. Sixty-four different logging scenarios for an initially undisturbed forest stand at Deramakot (Malaysia) were simulated. The scenarios differ regarding the logging cycle, logging method, cutting limit and logging intensity. We characterise the impacts with four criteria describing the yield, canopy opening and changes in species composition. Multicriteria decision analysis was used for the first time to evaluate the scenarios and identify the efficient ones. Our results plainly show that reduced-impact logging scenarios are more 'efficient' than the others, since in these scenarios forest damage is minimised without significantly reducing yield. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between yield and achieving a desired ecological state of logged forest; the ecological state of the logged forests can only be improved by reducing yields and enlarging the logging cycles. Our study also demonstrates that high cutting limits or low logging intensities cannot compensate for the high level of damage caused by conventional logging techniques. 相似文献
217.
Ji ZG 《Environmental management》2004,34(2):159-169
Offshore drilling for oil and gas has been conducted since the early 1900s. Oil and gas under the seabed continue to be an important part of the energy resources of the United States. The need to balance the value of these resources against the potential for environmental damage is an important concern. This article explains why and how the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the US Department of the Interior uses research in physical sciences to help fulfill its environmental goals, and it provides background information on the role of physical sciences in decision-making for Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil, gas, and other minerals development. Established in the 1970s, the MMS Environmental Studies Program is a highly focused marine research program designed to provide the environmental information necessary for OCS energy and nonenergy minerals planning and development activities. The physical sciences research supported by MMS includes physical oceanography, oil-spill risk analyses, atmospheric sciences, and sand and gravel studies. Instead of giving a comprehensive review on physical sciences research in MMS, this article presents sample MMS studies and illustrates how these studies are utilized to support decision-making in environmental management.Published online
Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004. 相似文献
218.
Harris G 《Disasters》2002,26(1):49-54
This paper presents an economic evaluation of landmine clearance in Afghanistan. The main benefits comprise increased agricultural output, saved transport time and running costs, saved human casualties and the saved costs of supporting refugees and displaced persons. An investment of US$100 million between 1988 and 1998 is estimated to provide annual benefits of $50.3 million per annum between 1999 and 2008. This translates into net present values of between $935 and $1,744 million, depending on the rate of discount used. This contrasts with the negative NPVs estimated for several other countries. 相似文献
219.
Anderson AB 《Environmental management》2002,29(3):428-436
The Land Condition Trend Analysis (LCTA) program is the US Army's standard for land inventory and monitoring, employing standardized
methods of natural resources data collection, analyses, and reporting designed to meet multiple goals and objectives. Critical
to using LCTA data in natural resources management decisions is the ability of the LCTA protocols to detect changes in natural
resources. To quantify the ability of LCTA protocols to detect resource changes, power analysis techniques were used to estimate
minimum detectable effect sizes (MDES) for selected primary and secondary management variables for three Army installations.
MDES for a subset of primary variables were estimated using data from 27 installation LCTA programs. MDES for primary and
secondary variables varied widely. However, LCTA programs implemented at larger installations with lower sampling intensities
detected changes in installation resources as well as programs implemented at smaller more intensively sampled installations.
As a national monitoring program that is implemented at individual installations, LCTA protocols provide relatively consistent
monitoring data to detect changes in resources despite diverse resource characteristics and implementation constraints. 相似文献
220.
M.S. Bedinger James R. Harrill 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(4):827-839
ABSTRACT: Devils Hole is a collapse depression connected to the regional carbonate aquifer of the Death Valley ground water flow system. Devils Hole pool is home to an endangered pupfish that was threatened when irrigation pumping in nearby Ash Meadows lowered the pool stage in the 1960s. Pumping at Ash Meadows ultimately ceased, and the stage recovered until 1988, when it began to decline, a trend that continued until at least 2004. Regional ground water pumping and changes in recharge are considered the principal potential stresses causing long term stage changes. A regression was found between pumpage and Devils Hole water levels. Though precipitation in distant mountain ranges is the source of recharge to the flow system, the stage of Devils Hole shows small change in stage from 1937 to 1963, a period during which ground water withdrawals were small and the major stress on stage would have been recharge. Multiple regression analyses, made by including the cumulative departure from normal precipitation with pumpage as independent variables, did not improve the regression. Drawdown at Devils Hole was calculated by the Theis Equation for nearby pumping centers to incorporate time delay and drawdown attenuation. The Theis drawdowns were used as surrogates for pumpage in multiple regression analyses. The model coefficient for the regression, R2= 0.982, indicated that changes in Devils Hole were largely due to effects of pumping at Ash Meadows, Amargosa Desert, and Army 1. 相似文献