基于汶川8.0级强震记录的近场地震动特征分析

在汶川8.0级大地震中,国家数字强震动台网布设在龙门山断裂带及其周围地区的50多个台站获得了大于100 Gal的加速度记录。选取其中断层附近11个台站的加速度记录,分别进行了地震反应谱分析和基于正交化HHT法的能量分布特征分析,通过对竖向与水平向加速度峰值比、竖向与水平向加速度反应谱比值,以及能量分布和峰值系数的分析与比较,探讨了汶川地震的近场地震动特征。     

低纬高原大气电场特征及其在预警中的应用

通过对2006年7月- 2007年6月云南地闪定位网探测资料和玉溪大气电场仪资料分析,研究了高原晴天大气电场和雷暴天气过程的电场演变特征.结果表明:高原晴天大气电场具有明显的日变化和月变化特征.低纬高原地区雷暴云具有偶极性和三极性两种结构,但大多数雷暴具有偶极性电荷结构,不同电荷结构的雷暴云的放电特征不同,偶极性时主要为负地闪,地闪活动较活跃;三极性时主要是正地闪,地闪活动较少.根据雷暴云近地面电场变化特征,探讨了大气电场仪预警地闪的方法,首次提出极性变化预警法,其命中率和提前预警时间都明显优于阈值预警法.     

基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析综述(Ⅱ)——随机抽样模拟与极值风速预测

台风危险性分析是台风损失估计及防灾减灾的基础。对基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析所采用的随机台风概率模型、随机抽样模拟方法和极值风速预测进行了回顾与评述,包括台风关键参数概率模型及其相关性、台风路径模型、台风登陆衰减和海陆风速转换模型以及台风极值风速概率模型,并针对我国东南沿海地区台风危险性分析数值模拟采用的相关模型给出了相关建议。     

陕南地区清代霜雪灾害及分形特征研究

通过对陕南清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,研究了清代(1644-1911年)陕南霜雪灾害等级、阶段变化及不同等级灾害周期性等。统计分析显示,陕南清代发生霜雪灾害28次,平均每9.57年发生一次;霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的21%,72%和7%;清代霜雪灾害可分为4个阶段,其中1644-1668年和1819-1868年的第1、第3阶段为灾害多发期,而1669-1818年和1869-1911年的第2、第4阶段为灾害少发期。霜雪灾害的自相似性揭示了灾害的分形性,分形结果显示陕南地区清代各等级灾害呈周期变化,且这些灾害的集中性非常强。陕南清代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害发生分别存在着16～18 a,7～8 a和46 a振荡周期。该地区霜雪灾害的发生主要是偏暖月的持续性降雪、积雪或由寒流引起的气温骤降造成的。初步确定陕南清代发生了两次霜雪灾害气候事件,时间在公元1649-1663年和1817-1842年。     

软土等向固结与K_0固结条件下的三轴试验研究

对某软土重塑样分别进行等向固结和K0固结条件下的三轴试验,研究了不同固结条件、不同围压下软土的强度和应力应变特性,并对试验结果进行了分析和对比。结果表明:低围压下,等向固结三轴压缩试验和K0固结三轴压缩试验土样破坏时的主应力差差别不大,随着围压增大,K0固结条件下试验土体的主应力差要明显大于等向固结条件下的试验土体;与等向固结相比,K0固结条件下的土体粘聚力c值减小,而内摩擦角增大;土体呈现剪缩特性。运用等向固结三轴压缩试验确定的邓肯模型参数模拟K0固结条件下土体的试验曲线,吻合较好,初步验证了邓肯模型参数对K0固结土体的适用性。     

基于VB6.0的供水管网震害预测方法和软件

为了提高供水管网震害预测的效率,修订了现有供水管网震害预测模型,应用Visual Basic 6.0软件平台,开发了供水管网震害预测软件。震害预测软件提供了两方面的预测功能,分别为不同地震烈度下供水管段基于三态的破坏等级预测和供水管网基于五态的破坏等级预测。软件实现了批量供水管段及整个管网的震害预测,且可以进行管网在设定地震下的震害预测,提高了预测效率。经算例分析,验证了软件的可靠性。     

Evaluation of a population mobility,mortality, and birth surveillance system in South Kivu,Democratic Republic of the Congo

Prospective, community-based surveillance systems for measuring birth, death, and population movement rates may have advantages over the ‘gold-standard’ retrospective household survey in humanitarian contexts. A community-based, monthly surveillance system was established in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in partnership with a local implementing partner and the national ministry of health. Data were collected on the occurrence of births, deaths, arrivals, and departures over the course of one year, and a retrospective survey was conducted at the end of the period to validate the information. Discrepancies between the two approaches were resolved by a third visit to the households with discordant records. The study found that the surveillance system was superior in terms of its specificity and sensitivity in measuring crude mortality and birth rates as compared to the survey, demonstrating the method's potential to measure accurately important population-level health metrics in an insecure setting in a timely, community-acceptable manner.     

2004.7.20云南盈江滑坡泥石流山洪灾害成因及减灾对策

云南省德宏州盈江县位于横断山区西南部.2004年7月18日～19日,该县北部的的支那、盏西、芒璋等地遭受特大暴雨袭击,引起7.20滑坡泥石流山洪灾害,造成59人死亡失踪和15 857万元财产损失.60年一遇、19小时186.2mm的特大暴雨,是该次滑坡泥石流山洪灾害形成的根本原因.针对灾害的特征、现状和发展趋势,提出了拟采取的减灾措施.     

Diagnosis of famine: a discursive contribution

This paper recommends the incorporation of an additional discursive dimension in famine diagnosis that draws on the number of reports referring to famine in the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)'s ReliefWeb database. Present‐day diagnostic tools already apply the principle of triangulation with multiple indicators; the addition of a discursive diagnostic dimension would enable even more refined analysis, allowing more forcefully for the incorporation of the aspect of change. The newly devised discursive famine indices are used both to identify famines—in Ethiopia (2000), Malawi (2002), and Somalia (2011)—and to analyse key socioeconomic determinants of famine. The study finds that income (or poverty) together with state fragility appear to be the major determinants of cross‐country variations in famine reporting, while political regimes do not appear to have any independent effect. The indices appear largely robust with regard to concerns about cross‐country, semantic, and temporal biases.     

Decision‐making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands

A traditional view of decision‐making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the ‘top strategic decision‐making’ for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision‐making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision‐makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision‐making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.