水文频率线型选择与综合过程中贝叶斯因子求解新方法

为克服水文频率线型选择和综合过程中,贝叶斯因子求解时参数先验分布确定和线型边缘分布数值积分这两个难点问题,联合应用了贝叶斯采样方法和最大熵原理(POME)求解参数后验分布表达式,然后应用参数采样结果中逐个样本近似求和方法代替线型边缘分布积分过程,进而建立了贝叶斯因子求解新方法。实例分析和Monte-Carlo统计试验验证了该方法的准确性和有效性。分析结果显示:序列长度和参数取值大小等因素对贝叶斯因子和水文线型后验概率求解结果影响较大;由于BIC准则的实质是通过寻求一组最优参数值进行贝叶斯因子求解,因此在受到不利因素影响时参数估计结果往往存在较大误差,使得BIC准则的分析结果也存在较大偏差。贝叶斯因子求解新方法能够克服上述不利因素的影响,可以合理地分析和描述参数不确定性,使得分析计算结果明显改善,因此所提新方法具有更好的实用性和可靠性。     

Toxic effects of phosphoramidate on Paramecium sp. with special emphasis on respiratory metabolism,growth, and generation time

The toxicological impacts of the increasing number of synthetic compounds present in the aquatic environment are assessed predominantly in laboratory studies where test organisms are exposed to a range of concentrations of single compounds. Protozoan cells are often used as bioindicators for the presence of xenobiotic compounds. In this article, we describe the inhibitory effect of a synthetic phosphoramidate derivative at different concentrations (40, 60, and 80?µmol?L^?1) on Paramecium sp., affecting its growth (proliferation) in concentration-dependent manner, as well as the generation time and response percentage. The LC₅₀ value determined for these protozoa was estimated at 60?µmol?L^?1 on 24?h of exposure. The respiratory metabolism of protozoan is perturbed at three concentrations, noting that the oxygen consumption was significantly increased at high concentrations after 18?h of exposure. In addition, the data can be used as reference values in further testing with other pesticides.     

Clinical and analytical follow‐up of 25 persons exposed accidentally to beryllium†

An accidental exposition of 25 persons to beryllium dust was used to follow up trace analytical and clinical parameters over a period of 10 months. Although no exposed person shows any symptoms of an acute beryllium intoxication, up to 5‐fold increased beryllium concentrations could be analysed in serum samples about 10 hours after exposition. The beryllium clearance shows a biological half time in the range of 2 to 8 weeks. The beryllium determination in the nanogram range was carried out using a combined method by flameless a.a.s. with a detection limit of 0.6 ppb Be and a relative standard deviation from 20 to 4% in relation to the concentration range of beryllium measurement.

Beryllium analyses are completed by thorax X‐ray, spirometry, y‐globulins and liver enzymes (SGOT, SGPT), which have shown no pathological values. Because it is known for beryllium to sensitize the cellular immune response, neopterin measurement was used to determine the activity of the immune system. Neopterin, a pteridine synthesized by activated macrophages after stimulation by gamma‐interferon derived from sensitized T‐lymphocytes, was determined in urine samples by HPLC combined with an fluorescence detector. Only in two cases a slight increase of neopterin has been found. As a result of this study it can be summarized, that a short‐time exposure to beryllium (10–20 h), which results in a increase of beryllium in serum to the fivefold normal beryllium level, does not initiate any symptoms of an acute beryllium intoxication. The exposed persons are controlled in future to evaluate the further course.     

Carbon market and technology transfer: statistical analysis for exploring implications

The impact of clean development mechanism (CDM) projects on climate change technology transfer (CCTT), which is essential for developing countries to achieve higher mitigation targets and move towards more sustainable paths, has been, until now, inadequately understood and analysed. The aim of this paper is to analyse the carbon market contribution to CCTT, mainly through the CDM, so as to stimulate developing countries towards the deployment and diffusion of low-carbon technologies that fulfil their sustainability goals. Indeed, relatively few studies deal with the assessment of the CDM contribution to CCTT, mainly through desk analysis and empirical evaluations on project design documents. To the best of our knowledge, there are no studies dealing with CCTT through CDM projects using statistical approaches. The added value of this article is the use of statistical analysis, time series analysis and multiple linear regression to analyse carbon market experiences in selected cross-representative developing countries. This assessment indicated the very heterogeneous CCTT across CDM project types, varying significantly in terms of reliance on imported technology, mix of equipment and knowledge and source countries for the technology.     

隧道衬砌空洞积水的探地雷达识别研究

衬砌空洞是运营隧道中的常见病害,由于其内部介质复杂,尤其当积水存在时,探地雷达(GPR)识别存在较大难度和误差。针对空洞积水的情况,利用MATLAB编程,建立空洞和不同电导率的空洞积水数值模型,用时域有限差分法(FDTD)进行探地雷达二维正演模拟,通过分析正演图谱和单道波形,得出空洞及积水的响应规律。制作隧道衬砌混凝土模型,应用探地雷达扫描测试,并与正演模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明,雷达正演与模型试验结果相似;未积水的空洞反射波相位与入射波相反;空洞积水的雷达信号反射更明显,其反射波相位与入射波相同;电磁波在水介质中迅速衰减,空洞积水时,其大小难以定量识别。     

航空装备事故的灰色时序组合预测模型

为提高航空装备事故预测水平,提出一种基于灰色和时间序列分析模型的航空装备事故组合预测模型。先构建灰色模型,提取历史数据中承载的趋势信息。然后进行模型选择、阶数识别和参数估计,建立灰色残差的时间序列分析模型,用以刻画历史数据中的随机波动特征。最后,将2个模型的预测值相加,得到所求的组合预测结果。实例中,以美国空军1996—1999年的A级飞行事故10万时率数据为基础,建立灰色时序组合模型,模型中短期预测精度优于单一灰色模型,平均相对误差控制在5%以内,预测结果能够反映航空装备安全的实际状况。     

灾害大规模混合应急疏散研究

为提高城市在自然灾害发生后的大规模疏散效率,减少人员伤亡和财产损失,以总时间最短为上层目标函数,应急疏散路网利用率最大为下层目标函数,考虑道路的通行能力及应急交通管理部门对应急疏散产生的影响,建立一个双层人车应急混合疏散规划模型。鉴于模型的复杂性,采用粒子群算法对模型进行求解。算例结果表明:有应急交通部门统一管理的路网应急疏散的能力比自然路网应急疏散的能力高87.3%。     

应急救援多目标时限指派模型

为实现应急救援队伍的合理派遣,对应急救援队伍的救援效率、救援物资消耗、最佳救援时间等因素进行分析。突出应急救援的时效性和救援目标的多属性特征,提出在保证应急救援最短时限的前提下,以应急救援效率最大化、物资消耗最小化为优化目标,构建最短时限应急救援多目标指派模型。采用线性加权和法将多目标化为单目标决策问题,运用两阶段法对模型进行求解。数值计算结果表明:最短时限的引入能有效实现应急救援队伍合理、公平派遣。     

火灾烟气危害定量评价模型THVCH及其应用

为更加准确地评价实际火灾烟气的危害性,针对以往烟气毒性定量评价方法N-GAS和FED模型的不足,提出了一种新的火灾烟气危害性定量评价模型THVCH(Toxicity,Heat and Visibility Comprehensive Harmfulness)。实际火灾烟气的危害包括烟气毒性和烟气高温辐射。两者都具有时间累积效应,人员在火灾环境中的暴露时间越长,所受到的伤害越大。烟气的遮光性是影响火场中人员暴露时间的重要因素,低能见度下人员疏散所需要的时间是高能见度的3.8倍。THVCH模型在考虑烟气毒性的同时兼顾了能见度对人员暴露时间的影响以及高温辐射对人体的伤害。以重庆开县5.5火灾为工程背景,运用大涡模拟技术对其火灾过程进行数值重构。在此技术上采用N-GAS、FED和THVCH模型对不同阶段的火灾危害性进行了评价,证明了火灾烟气危害评价中考虑能见度和高温辐射的必要性。