度假“自由行”产品的经营风险及其规避

度假＂自由行＂不同于传统的包价旅游,它是一种游客自主选择游览活动的出行方式。这种个性化的旅游方式代表了市场需求的方向,也成为众多旅行社服务商的主打产品,发展前景广阔。但与之相伴的游览安全隐患也大大增加了旅行社的经营风险,影响了＂自由行＂产品的健康发展,不利于旅游经营方式创新。在分析＂自由行＂概念和特征的基础上,深入阐述了度假＂自由行＂产品的经营风险,提出了控制风险的策略。     

基于复合语言表达的装备维修合同商评价与选择

目的科学选择最优装备维修合同商。方法提出装备维修合同商的综合评价指标,建立一种同时使用比较语言和单一语言表达的装备维修合同商选择评价模型。利用层次分析法确定指标权重,采用复合语言对备选合同商的各项指标进行评价,将复合语言转换为犹豫模糊语言术语集(HFLTS),通过有序加权平均(OWA)算子计算HFLTS的模糊包络,最后应用逼近理想点(TOPSIS)法进行了合同商的评价和选择。结果通过实例验证了该选择方法的实用性和有效性。结论为军方合理选择最优装备维修合同商提供了重要模型借鉴。     

Assessment of health-care waste disposal methods using a VIKOR-based fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method

Nowadays selection of the appropriate treatment method in health-care waste (HCW) management has become a challenge task for the municipal authorities especially in developing countries. Assessment of HCW disposal alternatives can be regarded as a complicated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem which requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and conflicting tangible and intangible criteria. The objective of this paper is to present a new MCDM technique based on fuzzy set theory and VIKOR method for evaluating HCW disposal methods. Linguistic variables are used by decision makers to assess the ratings and weights for the established criteria. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group assessment. The computational procedure of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case study in Shanghai, one of the largest cities of China. The HCW treatment alternatives considered in this study include “incineration”, “steam sterilization”, “microwave” and “landfill”. The results obtained using the proposed approach are analyzed in a comparative way.     

An empirical investigation of safety climate in container terminal operators

INTRODUCTION: This study empirically evaluates the crucial dimensions of safety climate from a container terminal operator's perspective, specifically in the Port of Kaohsiung. METHOD: Seven safety climate dimensions are identified based on factor analysis: (a) supervisor safety, (b) job safety, (c) coworkers' safety, (d) safety management, (e) safety training, (f) safety rules and special safety training, and (g) job pressure. Cluster analysis is subsequently performed to form worker groups. Respondents are categorized into four groups on the basis of their factor scores in safety climate dimensions: (a) safety management oriented terminal operators, (b) safety training and management oriented terminal operators, (c) job safety and supervisor safety oriented terminal operators, and (d) coworkers' safety oriented terminal operators. RESULTS: Results indicate that safety training and management oriented terminal operators have the best safety performance, followed by safety management oriented terminal operators, job safety and supervisor safety oriented terminal operators, and coworkers' safety oriented terminal operators. Theoretical and practical implications of the research findings are discussed.     

旅游区环境容量测算方法探讨

通过对现有的旅游环境容量测算方法进行分析评价,针对传统计算方法的不足之处,提出了相应的改进意见,以使旅游环境容量评价的结果更能体现可持续发展的思想,促进旅游资源的永续利用。     

弱化缓冲算子修正的民航不安全事件离散灰色预测

为了掌握民航不安全事件的发展状况,并据此制定民航企事业单位的安全绩效考核指标,在民航不安全事件灰色预测的基础上引入离散灰色预测和弱化缓冲算子理论,基于中国民航2004—2013年不安全事件数据建立了弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型。通过中国民航2014—2015年不安全事件数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型的预测精度明显高于灰色预测(GM(1,1))模型和离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型,其中2阶平均弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型预测精度最高,采用该模型对2016—2020年我国民航不安全事件数进行了预测,预测结果为14 095、14 910、15 773、16 685、17 650。     

Multiple indicators, partially ordered sets, and linear extensions: Multi-criterion ranking and prioritization

This paper is concerned with the question of ranking a finite collection of objects when a suite of indicator values is available for each member of the collection. The objects can be represented as a cloud of points in indicator space, but the different indicators (coordinate axes) typically convey different comparative messages and there is no unique way to rank the objects while taking all indicators into account. A conventional solution is to assign a composite numerical score to each object by combining the indicator information in some fashion. Consciously or otherwise, every such composite involves judgments (often arbitrary or controversial) about tradeoffs or substitutability among indicators. Rather than trying to combine indicators, we take the view that the relative positions in indicator space determine only a partial ordering and that a given pair of objects may not be inherently comparable. Working with Hasse diagrams of the partial order, we study the collection of all rankings that are compatible with the partial order (linear extensions). In this way, an interval of possible ranks is assigned to each object. The intervals can be very wide, however. Noting that ranks near the ends of each interval are usually infrequent under linear extensions, a probability distribution is obtained over the interval of possible ranks. This distribution, called the rank-frequency distribution, turns out to be unimodal (in fact, log-concave) and represents the degree of ambiguity involved in attempting to assign a rank to the corresponding object. Stochastic ordering of probability distributions imposes a partial order on the collection of rank-frequency distributions. This collection of distributions is in one-to-one correspondence with the original collection of objects and the induced ordering on these objects is called the cumulative rank-frequency (CRF) ordering; it extends the original partial order. Although the CRF ordering need not be linear, it can be iterated to yield a fixed point of the CRF operator. We hypothesize that the fixed points of the CRF operator are exactly the linear orderings. The CRF operator treats each linear extension as an equal voter in determining the CRF ranking. It is possible to generalize to a weighted CRF operator by giving linear extensions differential weights either on mathematical grounds (e.g., number of jumps) or empirical grounds (e.g., indicator concordance). Explicit enumeration of all possible linear extensions is computationally impractical unless the number of objects is quite small. In such cases, the rank-frequencies can be estimated using discrete Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.     

The Consistency of Extinction Risk Classification Protocols

Abstract:  Systematic protocols that use decision rules or scores are seen to improve consistency and transparency in classifying the conservation status of species. When applying these protocols, assessors are typically required to decide on estimates for attributes that are inherently uncertain. Input data and resulting classifications are usually treated as though they are exact and hence without operator error. We investigated the impact of data interpretation on the consistency of protocols of extinction risk classifications and diagnosed causes of discrepancies when they occurred. We tested three widely used systematic classification protocols employed by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. We provided 18 assessors with identical information for 13 different species to infer estimates for each of the required parameters for the three protocols. The threat classification of several of the species varied from low risk to high risk, depending on who did the assessment. This occurred across the three protocols investigated. Assessors tended to agree on their placement of species in the highest (50–70%) and lowest risk categories (20–40%), but there was poor agreement on which species should be placed in the intermediate categories. Furthermore, the correspondence between the three classification methods was unpredictable, with large variation among assessors. These results highlight the importance of peer review and consensus among multiple assessors in species classifications and the need to be cautious with assessments carried out by a single assessor. Greater consistency among assessors requires wide use of training manuals and formal methods for estimating parameters that allow uncertainties to be represented, carried through chains of calculations, and reported transparently.     

无锡市国内旅游市场特征分析及发展战略

旅游客源市场分析是区域(城市)旅游发展规划的重点。从国内旅游发展的人口学特征、行为特征及客流地理结构等角度对无锡国内旅游发展做了分析,并对其未来的发展战略做了探讨。     

基于人的行为事故模型对当前煤矿安全生产的分析

煤矿企业的事故发生受到许多因素的影响,其中人的不安全行为是一个重要的影响因素.通过对人的行为的影响因素的分析,提出一个基于人的行为的事故模型,并运用该模型对当前煤矿事故的发生原因进行了分析,提出了相应的措施.