上海市入境旅游市场发展潜力与旅游外汇收入的关系研究——基于灰色预测和灰色关联分析法

利用灰色预测法对上海市入境旅游11个国家和地区的赴沪旅游者人数和旅游外汇收入进行了预测,推断出上海市入境旅游市场中不同国家和地区的市场潜力;运用灰色关联分析法,探索不同市场潜力等级的入境旅游国家和地区与上海市旅游外汇收入间的关系.针对亚洲和欧美各国家或地区的实际情况,提出了针对性的对策和建议.     

近十年来大理州旅游业碳足迹演变分析（2000-2011年）

应用以生命周期为原理的碳足迹评价方法,以云南省大理白族自治州旅游业发展为研究对象,计算得出游客在2000-2011年交通、住宿、饮食、游览、娱乐、购物六个方面所留下的碳足迹.研究结果表明,交通和游购娱的碳足迹总量占比重较大,说明大理州旅游业依然停留在传统观光旅游阶段.通过分析大理州旅游业发展面临的问题,在些基础上提出了促进大理州低碳旅游发展的策略.     

文化旅游产业的融合发展及政府规制改革研究

在文化旅游领域，文化与旅游产业的融合与互动发展已成为新的趋势，产生了良好的经济效益和社会效益。以文化旅游产业融合发展为题，联系产业分工理论、产业组织理论、战略管理理论等，结合文化及旅游产业自身的特征，对文化旅游产业融合的动因、融合机制和融合背景下如何进行政府规制改革等问题进行了分析。     

旅游规划的发展历程与发展趋势

简要介绍了国内外旅游规划的发展历程,分析了旅游规划的现状和存在的问题,指出旅游规划的发展趋势是走向合成规划,走向社会实践,走向系统优化和走向可持续发展。     

国内外旅游系统模型研究综述

从系统论角度来考虑。人类的旅游活动是一个系统。旅游系统是备种旅游事象的集合体。是通过旅游者的旅游活动使备组成要素相互联系、相互作用构成的一个有机整体．它具有实现旅游价值的整体功能。在分析和阐释旅游系统特征的基础上，以时间为序列对国内外学者提出的旅游系统模型进行了介绍评述和总结．指出系统论的观点不仅为旅游资源的开发提供了认识论基础；同时又为旅游规划和开发提供了方法论基础，并提出，对具有环境观和复杂性特点的旅游地理系统的研究将成为未来旅游科学的重要研究方向。旅游系统模型的建立将为旅游（业）的研究提供现实的理论基础。     

Water Resource Management in Botswana: Balancing Sustainability and Economic Development*

Botswana is a rapidly developing country in southern Africa. Over the last three decades, diamond mining and tourism have provided double-digit rates of economic growth. Yet most of Botswana’s land is in the Kalahari desert where the climate is subject to sustained periods of severe drought. In this environment, water resources are the most crucial of all environmental resources. Water use directly affects economic development because water utilization impacts all the major national economic sectors. A sustainable water use resource management plan must stretch several decades into the future to assure the availability of adequate supplies of water to future generations while not compromising the ability of the current generation to reasonable rates of economic development. Yet thinking about sustainability is present in Botswana water policy mostly only in rhetoric. A series of cultural traditions and political constraints, coupled with bureaucratic managerial weaknesses, serve to maintain a system of water allocation that is unsustainable in the long run and inefficient in the short-term. Unless sustainable water use patterns are adopted, the results for the short-term, as well as the long-term, will be devastating. Drawing on data obtained through a series of interviews with government officials, leaders of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and water resource researchers, this paper explores water policy in Botswana within the larger context of sustainable natural resource management practice and the pressures of economic development. This research was partially funded under U.S. Department of State, College and University Affiliations Grant # ASCS-1095.     

长江三角洲城市旅游与城市发展协调性及影响因素

城市旅游业作为城市服务业的重要部门,是推动城市发展的后续动力。运用信息熵赋权法和TOPSIS法相结合,从经济水平、社会发展、公共交通、城市绿化、环境保护、旅游发展6个方面对长江三角洲2003年和2008年的城市旅游与城市发展的协调性进行分析,借助ArcGIS软件的空间聚类法分析了城市旅游与城市发展协调水平的空间格局及演变,最后探讨影响因素。结果表明:长江三角洲16城市的城市旅游协调水平在研究期间相对稳定,具体可被划分为4个等级,第一、二等级城市数量较少,得分显著高于第三、四等级城市。城市旅游协调水平空间上存在较大差异,北部城市得分高于南部城市,基本格局保持稳定,呈现以上海、南京、杭州三个城市为核心向外围边缘城市的空间衰减。产业发展、城市旅游发展模式、城市旅游重大项目投资、区位条件是长江三角洲城市旅游协调水平产生空间分化的主要影响因素,可制定以城市旅游发展为手段的方式推动城市发展,促进区域均衡发展。     

国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展与启示

加强气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究,有助于旅游业在气候变化背景下实现可持续发展。基于SCI/SSCI文献数据库,梳理分析国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展。结果显示,30余年来国外主要采用指标方法、需求模型与选择分析方法开展相关研究。20世纪80年代末出现的指标方法是运用最早、最广泛的方法,主要用于旅游资源环境变化等研究,呈现由单项指标转向综合指标的应用趋势;20世纪90年代末兴起的需求模型主要用于天气状况对旅游需求的影响等研究,呈现由时间序列模型转向累计需求模型的应用趋势;21世纪兴起的选择分析主要用于气候变化背景下的行为意愿等研究,呈现由描述统计转向离散选择模型的应用趋势。这些给我国研究的启示是：在研究方法与研究领域上,重点加强累计需求模型在旅游流相关研究中的运用,加强离散选择模型在旅游市场结构相关研究中的运用,加强系统科学方法与大数据技术在相关研究中的运用;在研究对象上,丰富中国境内气候敏感型旅游活动的相关研究,加强“一带一路”沿线国家、地区及青藏高原的相关研究。     

Introduction: Natural Capital, Poverty and Development

Can development occur without running down natural resources in an unsustainable way? The concept of natural capital offers a way for those with divergent views (ecologists and economists for example) to discuss this difficult question. Four aspects are examined in detail. First, the role of institutions in facilitating sustainable development is discussed, with examples from forestry. Then examples from (eco)tourism illustrate the potential – and limits – of applicability of the concept. Measurement issues for natural capital are then considered in detail. Finally, the concept is applied to agricultural strategy in fragile lands, where the tradeoff between the environment and development is likely to be most severe. Some implications for future research and policy are developed.     

Assessing Tourists' Preferences for Recreational and Environmental Management Programs Central to the Sustainable Development of a Tourism Area in the Dominican Republic

The main goals of this paper are to (1) highlight the need for sustainable development as a means to conserve natural resources and the environment, which often represent the basis for tourism development, (2) illustrate the importance of assessing tourists' preferences when designing programs and policies central to the sustainable development of a tourism area, and (3) study tourists' interests in sustainable development. With these goals in mind, 180 tourists from Europe, Latin America, and North America were interviewed as they were leaving the resort region of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic. The main factors that they considered when deciding where to go on a beach vacation were evaluated, as well as their preferences regarding four programs designed to improve recreational and environmental management of the area. Preferences by tourists were elicited both in monetary and non-monetary terms. This paper reports the non-monetary analysis of the data. The results indicate that clean ocean water and beaches, quality of services, and price are the most important factors considered by the respondents before deciding to come to Punta Cana. It was not possible to obtain reliable responses on how tourists perceived the four programs contributing to the sustainable development of Punta Cana. Nevertheless, they expressed high interest and willingness to pay for two of these programs: the outdoor aquarium and the Water Management Program. The results reported in this paper show how important it is to elicit tourists' preferences of programs central to the sustainable development of tourism areas since these preferences can drive managers' development decisions in more sustainable directions.