湖南省高效生态农业模式与综合技术研究总结

文章总结了湖南省10年来推行高效生态农业模式和推广综合农业技术的理论和实践,以及取得的效益。经过10年的努力,5个试点县的生态环境质量得到了显著改善,农业与农村经济得到了巨大发展;累计推广应用面积3.2663106 hm2,新增产值50.90亿元。     

Modelling and analysis of recruitment distributions

Recruitment data for 18 marine fish stocks are smoothed using 10 parametric families of probability distributions. Comparative fit of the 10 families is assessed by means of the maximized log-likelihood. Results indicate that the gamma distribution provides an overall good fit in the right-hand tail of the data, but that some adjustment to the gamma distribution is called for in the left-hand tail. Weight functions and weighted distributions are suggested as one means of achieving the needed adjustment.     

单甲脒农药对模型池塘生态系统藻类群落结构的影响

在１．５－５０．０ｍｇ／Ｌ的浓度范围内，单甲脒农药对模型池塘生态系统中的浮游植物群落结构有明显影响。尤其在加药的头４ｄ内，藻类种类、数量、多样性指数、种类数比及增长率明显下降，优势比显著上升，敏感种及清洁种减少甚至消失，高浓度（５０．０ｍｇ／Ｌ）的单甲脒在２ｄ内可把藻类全部杀灭。随试验时间的延长，药物不断降解，６ｄ后藻类种类、数量、多样性指数又不断回升。随加药次数的增多，药物对藻类抑制作用明显减弱，藻类的种类、数量、多样性指数等指标不断上升，尤其是藻类数量增加明显，试验后期，藻类数量高低主要受Ｎ、Ｐ浓度大小的影响。     

山西芦芽山旅游影响因子及其系数与地理因子间的关系

旅游影响因子及其系数是评价旅游开发对生态环境影响程度的一种主要指标。本文采用样方调查的方法，对芦芽山旅游影响因子及其系数与地理因子进行了相关分析，结果表明：6个旅游影响因子之间的正负相关性均很好地体现了旅游活动对各因子影响的规律性，同时也说明了旅游影响因子的选择与确定以及对其赋值的正确性，旅游影响因子及其系数与自然地理因子间较小的正负相关性，说明它们几乎不受自然地理因子的作用，它们共同作用为评价旅游开发程度强弱的指标，具有一定的可行性，旅游影响因子及其系数与人文地理因子间的高相关性，完全可以说明，它们能够正确地反映旅游活动对植被环境的作用。此外，加强景区管理和旅游规划尤为迫切，图2表4参8。     

工业废液纳滤膜分离模型研究

纳滤膜处理工业废液时，纳滤膜系统可以看做一个封闭体系。实验表明透过液通量Jw与压力差呈直线关系；透过液通量Jw与管过液溶质浓度CR都与浓缩时间呈较好的数学关系。但数学关系形式不同；透过液溶质浓度CR与进液溶质浓度Ci呈指数关系；透过液溶质浓度CR与膜压力差△p的关系为指数关系。     

Regression analysis of forest inventory data with time and space dependencies

In this paper the data of a forest health inventory are analyzed. Since 1983 the degree of defoliation, together with various explanatory variables (covariates) concerning stand, site, soil and weather, are recorded by the second of the two authors, in the forest district of Rothenbuch (Spessart, Bavaria). The focus is on the space and time dependencies of the data. The mutual relationship of space-time functions and the set of covariates is evaluated. For this we use generalized linear models (GLMs) for ordinal response variables and semiparametric estimation approaches. By using goodness-of-fit measures it turns out that (i) the contribution of space-time functions is quantitatively comparable with that of the set of covariates, (ii) the contribution of space-time functions is small compared with the contribution of a set of variables describing the last-year and neighboring response values. By applying appropriate residual methods a detailed analysis of the individual sites in the area can be carried out. This analysis reveals where the predictive power of the covariates fail to explain the observed defoliation.     

Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

活性炭吸附水中铅离子的动态研究

本文采用两种煤质活性炭，研究了其对不同浓度二价铅离子溶液的吸附，应用固定床吸附动力学模型，Ｍａｒｑａｄｔ方法非线性回归固定床吸附流出曲线，获得了铅离子在活性炭上的扩散传质系数。结果发现，孔扩散系数Ｄｐ强裂地依赖于铅离子入口浓度，随着入口浓度的升高，孔扩散系数变小，随后用上述扩攻系数理论预测了其它操作条件下的流出曲线，结果表明实验曲线与理论预测曲线能很好地相符，动态法能可靠地获取固吸附过程的吸附及扩     

拓扑指数在定量结构生物降解性关系中的应用

本文采用二氧化碳生成量实验，对训练组有机物，利用逐步回归分析程序，从计算和十四种分子连接性指数中筛选出与生物降解性最为相关的分子结构描述参数，建立定量结构－生物降解性关系模型，其相关系数为０．９３１，利用该模型对预测组质的预测结果表明，此模型对芳香化合物的好氧生物降解性具有良好的预测能力，其正确预测率达８３．３％。     

On the latent state estimation of nonlinear population dynamics using Bayesian and non-Bayesian state-space models

Nonlinear state-space models have been increasingly applied to study population dynamics and data assimilation in environmental sciences. State-space models can account for process error and measurement error simultaneously to correct for the bias in the estimates of system state and model parameters. However, few studies have compared the performance of different nonlinear state-space models for reconstructing the state of population dynamics from noisy time series. This study compared the performance of the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and Bayesian nonlinear state-space models (BNSSM) through simulations. Synthetic population time series were generated using the theta logistic model with known parameters, and normally distributed process and measurement errors were introduced using the Monte Carlo simulations. At higher levels of nonlinearity, the UKF and BNSSM had lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the EKF. The BNSSM performed reliably across all levels of nonlinearity, whereas increased levels of nonlinearity resulted in higher RMSE of the EKF. The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm within the Gibbs algorithm was used to fit the theta logistic model to synthetic time series to estimate model parameters. The estimated posterior distribution of the parameter θ indicated that the 95% credible intervals included the true values of θ (=0.5 and 1.5), but did not include 1.0 and 0.0. Future studies need to incorporate the adaptive Metropolis algorithm to estimate unknown model parameters for broad applications of Bayesian nonlinear state-space models in ecological studies.