公路隧道火灾发生位置与人群疏散通道仿真研究

利用EXODUS建立隧道的仿真场景,确定疏散人群仿真参数,并将出口工效OPS作为评价疏散效率的指标,分析不同火灾发生位置对疏散时间的影响。采用K-means算法分别对火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道位置进行聚类,并建立基于两者影响下的出口工效模型,通过对该模型求偏导,得出隧道火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道选择之间的关系。研究结果表明:火灾发生位置越接近人行横通道,疏散时间波动越大,人行横通道和隧道入口的疏散时间随人群疏散区域分界线变化,当火灾发生距人行横通道20~110 m时,变化明显,当距140~350 m时,变化平稳;出口工效OPS总体呈现不稳定的阶梯状变化趋势;火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道的最优位置呈线性递减关系。研究结果可应用于隧道应急指挥中心管理人员制定有效疏散路径和采取诱导分流人群措施。     

海河平原农业供水的决策分析模型

本文根据海河平原水源不足的问题,采用系统分析的方法,探讨了农业供水的对策。提出的决策分析模型可望适用于不同大小的区域。通过实际资料的分析得出实行节流、管理与开源的具体方案及经济效益。分析成果表明推行节水灌溉技术与管理措施是完全可行的。在建立节流系统(包括管带与滴灌及调整耕作制度、作物布局)和加强水管理的基础上,实行开源引江、引黄,可大大缩减调水规模,降低开源工程投资,缓和工农与城乡供水的矛盾。     

Modeling mobile source emissions during traffic jams in a micro urban environment

Urbanization typically involves a continuous increase in motor vehicle use, resulting in congestion known as traffic jams. Idling emissions due to traffic jams combine with the complex terrain created by buildings to concentrate atmospheric pollutants in localized areas. This research simulates emissions concentrations and distributions for a congested street in Minsk, Belarus. Ground-level (up to 50-meters above the street's surface) pollutant concentrations were calculated using STAR (version 3.10) with emission factors obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, wind speed and direction, and building location and size. Relative emissions concentrations and distributions were simulated at 1-meter and 10-meters above street level. The findings demonstrate the importance of wind speed and direction, and building size and location on emissions concentrations and distributions, with the leeward sides of buildings retaining up to 99 percent of the emitted pollutants within 1-meter of street level, and up to 77 percent 10-meters above the street.     

合肥市典型交通干道大气苯系物的特征分析

为研究合肥市交通干道大气苯系物污染状况,采用自主研制的差分吸收光谱(DOAS)系统,于2016年3月期间对合肥市交通主干道大气苯系物(苯、甲苯、间二甲苯和邻二甲苯)以及常规污染物NO_2、SO_2等进行了连续观测.观测结果显示,观测期间苯、甲苯、间二甲苯和邻二甲苯的平均浓度分别为:21.7、63.6、33.9和98.7μg·m~(-3).与国内外其它城市比较显示,合肥市交通干道大气苯和甲苯的污染处于中等水平,二甲苯的污染较为严重.结合观测期的间风速风向、T/B特征比值以及与CO等污染物的相关性,对上述苯系物来源进行了分析,结果显示观测期间T/B值为0.8~4.5,苯、甲苯与CO的相关性系数R分别为0.55和0.34.表明机动车尾气排放是观测区域苯和甲苯的主要排放源之一,同时也受到周边工业园区排放的影响,二甲苯的主要排放源为观测地点北偏东方向的涂料行业工业园区.苯和甲苯的夜间高浓度峰值分析结果表明,夜间的高浓度苯和甲苯可能主要来源于观测地点周边工业园区的排放.观测区域苯系物的臭氧生成潜势(OFP)表现为邻二甲苯间二甲苯甲苯苯,其中二甲苯的OFP占总OFP的85%,表明周边工业园区的排放对该地区臭氧生成的贡献较大.     

城市立体交通系统中污染物传播特性数值模拟

构建了一个包含交通转盘、隧道、高架桥和下沉式公交站的立体交通几何模型,建立了该系统中流体流动与污染物传播的耦合数学模型,数值分析了环境风变化时,该系统中流体流动与气态污染物的传播规律.结果表明,环境风向的变化直接改变了公交站区域流体的流向途径,在公交站区域;北风时的平均污染物浓度是西风时的3.5倍,而在转盘中央区域,北风时平均污染物浓度是西风时的5倍.西风时,环境风速从0.5m/s增加到3.5m/s,东侧公交站区域的平均污染物浓度减少95.21%;交通隧道内,环境风速的增加使空气流通速度增加,污染物浓度迅速降低.     

Direct and indirect costs of nonfatal road traffic injuries in Iran: A population-based study

Objectives: The objective of this study was to assess the incidence rate as well as direct and indirect costs of nonfatal road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Iran in 2011.

Methods: Data from the 2011 national household survey were used. In this survey, data on demographics, history, and costs of injury were obtained in 2 steps: first, direct face-to-face interview and second, telephone calls. We estimated the incidence rate of nonfatal RTIs in this year. The direct costs included medical care as well as nonmedical costs paid by the patient or insurance services. The indirect costs were estimated by considering the cost of absence from work or education. We also used logistic regression analyses to investigate risk factors of nonfatal RTIs.

Results: We found 76 nonfatal RTI cases (0.96%) out of 7,886 whole reference study cases. These 76 injured patients had a history of RTI in the preceding 3 months. The annual incidence of RTIs was estimated at 3.84%. The mean age of RTI cases was 28.5 ± 10.6 and 88.16% of them were male. Male gender was a major risk factor (odds ratio [OR] = 9.64, 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.79–19.41) and marriage was a protective factor (OR = 0.44, 95% CI, 0.28–0.70) for RTI. The medians of direct, indirect, and total costs were US$214, US$163, and US$387, respectively. The total cost of nonfatal RTIs in Iran was estimated at 1.29% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011.

Conclusions: In Iran, nonfatal RTIs imposed a total cost of almost US$7 billion to the country for one year. Extension and more serious implementation of preventive measurements seem necessary to decrease this notable burden of RTIs.     

Representativity and univocity of traffic signs and their effect on trajectory movement in a driving simulation task: Warning signs

Objective: The effect of traffic signs on the behavior of drivers is not completely understood. Knowing about how humans process the meaning of signs (not just by learning but instinctively) will improve reaction time and decision making when traveling. The economic, social, and psychological consequences of car accidents are well known.

Methods: This study sounds out which traffic signs are more ergonomic for participants, from a cognitive point of view, and determines, at the same time, their effect in participants' movement trajectories in a driving simulation task.

Results: Results point out that the signs least representative of their meaning produce a greater deviation from the center of the road than the most representative ones.

Conclusions: This study encourages both an in-depth analysis of the effect on movement of roadside signs and the study of how this effect can be modified by the context in which these signs are presented (with the aim to move the research closer to and analyze the data in real contexts). The goal is to achieve clarity of meaning and lack of counterproductive effects on the trajectory of representative signs (those that provoke fewer mistakes in the decision task).     

Assessment of patients' medical fitness to drive by primary care physicians: A cross-sectional study

Objectives: Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are a significant health burden in Saudi Arabia. The literature has consistently indicated that chronic medical conditions, such as diabetes, heart disease, stroke, obstructive sleep apnea, and neurodevelopmental disorders, increase the risk of MVCs. Therefore, assessment of driver fitness by primary care physicians (PCPs) remains a major health intervention that might reduce MVCs. We studied the practices of PCPs in assessing medical fitness to drive in at-risk patients.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of all 88 government-funded primary care centers in the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We administered a self-reported questionnaire to PCPs that inquired about their driving risk assessment for specific medical conditions.

Results: Among all PCPs and centers, 189 PCPs (63%) from 74 centers (84%) participated in our survey. The mean age of the PCPs was 40 ± 10 years, and 108 (57%) were men. The average clinical experience of the group was 13 ± 9 years. Fewer than half of PCPs considered diabetes mellitus (45%) and obstructive sleep apnea (46%) as potential risks for MVCs. Approximately 45% of PCPs did not notify any authority or relatives of potential driving issues that they noticed in their patients. Only 15% of the participants believed that PCPs were responsible for alerting authorities about their fitness to drive.

Conclusions: PCPs did not adequately assess their patients' driving history and eligibility. Efforts are needed to improve awareness among PCPs regarding the effects of chronic medical conditions on driving.