Prediction of vehicle crashes by drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations in Korea using a zero-inflated negative binomial model

Aims: Traffic safety is a significant public health challenge, and vehicle crashes account for the majority of injuries. This study aims to identify whether drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations may predict vehicle crashes in Korea.

Methods: A total of 500,000 drivers were randomly selected from the 11.6 million driver records of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea. Records of traffic crashes were obtained from the archives of the Korea Insurance Development Institute. After matching the past violation history for the period 2004–2005 with the number of crashes in year 2006, a total of 488,139 observations were used for the analysis. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to determine the incident risk ratio (IRR) of vehicle crashes by past violations of individual drivers. The included covariates were driver's age, gender, district of residence, vehicle choice, and driving experience.

Results: Drivers violating (1) a hit-and-run or drunk driving regulation at least once and (2) a signal, central line, or speed regulation more than once had a higher risk of a vehicle crash with respective IRRs of 1.06 and 1.15. Furthermore, female gender, a younger age, fewer years of driving experience, and middle-sized vehicles were all significantly associated with a higher likelihood of vehicle crashes.

Conclusions: Drivers' demographic characteristics and past traffic violations could predict vehicle crashes in Korea. Greater resources should be assigned to the provision of traffic safety education programs for the high-risk driver groups.     

温岭市高架道路交通噪声空间分布规律与防治对策研究

为评价温岭市东环高架道路交通噪声的环境影响,采用实测法对东环高架附近代表性点位及不同时间段进行噪声监测,记录等效连续A声级(Leq),以及同步监测车流量、车型等相关数据.根据《声环境质量标准》(GB 3096-2008),由所得监测数据,推测其交通噪声空间分布规律.结果表明,噪声最大值发生于上下班高峰期,交通噪声则随距离的增加而衰减,而道路两侧高层建筑交通噪声随着高度的增加先由小变大后变小.此外,还为该高架道路交通噪声的防治提供一定的参考依据.     

Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel

Objective: With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011–2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity.

Methods: An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity.

Results: Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50–79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient.

Conclusions: This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.     

The influence of alcohol on pedestrians: A different approach to the effectiveness of the new traffic safety law

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the effects of the new traffic safety law on pedestrian mortality by exploring hazardous behaviors of pedestrians in terms of alcohol use and blood alcohol concentration (BAC).

Methods: A retrospective autopsy study was performed, covering a 7-year period (from 2006 to 2012), including cases of fatally injured pedestrians who died at the scene of the incident. Blood samples obtained from the femoral vein during autopsy were analyzed for BAC. The entire sample was divided into 2 groups. The first included cases from 2006 to 2009, at which time the old traffic safety law was in force, and the second included cases from 2010 to 2012, under the new traffic safety law.

Results: A total of 247 cases were examined, covering a 7-year period. The average age was 57.5 ± 19.7 years (median 61.0 years) with a significant male predominance of 147 men to 100 women. This predominance also applied to alcohol use (54 vs. 13). The results show a significant decrease in the total annual number of fatally injured pedestrians, starting from 2009, compared to previous years, reaching a low in 2010, one year after implementation of the new traffic safety law. In contrast, the proportion of alcohol-intoxicated pedestrians showed no significant difference in the years preceding and following the new traffic safety law, nor did the annual distribution of BAC or mean BAC before and after application of the new law.

Conclusion: The present study indicates that the new traffic safety law has been quite effective in reducing pedestrian mortality. However, alcohol consumption and intoxication in pedestrians remains a fairly important factor in motor vehicle accidents involving pedestrians, because the proportion of pedestrians positive for alcohol, the proportion of severely intoxicated pedestrians with BAC > 1 g/L, and annual mean BAC have remained unchanged.     

A Street Categorization Method to Study Urban Noise: The Valladolid (Spain) Study

Abstract We describe the application of a categorization method for road traffic noise (TN) evaluation. The method assumes that urban noise is stratified according to a five-category classification of streets based only on their use as communication routes. The method has previously been shown to be valid for towns under 220,000 inhabitants, and in the present case is applied to study the urban noise in Valladolid (Spain), a town with a population of nearly 320,000 inhabitants. Novel mathematical tools in this field are used to analyze the method. We demonstrate the existence of a stratification of the streets sound levels. Thus, the categories defined seem to be quite adequate for towns of this size range. Moreover, noise level predictive capacity of the method was also analyzed, and an overall value for the predictive capacity of 80% was obtained. Thus, our method can be a simple, low-cost strategy to make a statistical evaluation of the TN in a city.     

城市交通环境中NO_X浓度和噪声相关性的探讨

为了研究交通环境中NOX浓度和噪声的相关性 ,探索一种更为简洁的环境监测手段解决城市道路交通环境问题 ,在和兴路上沿道路横断面布点 ,对NOX浓度和噪声进行监测。实验表明 ,在交通环境中 ,对于同一点不同时刻的NOX浓度和噪声值有一定的相关性 ,而对同一时刻不同点则无明显的相关性。     

Evaluating the impact of criminalizing drunk driving on years of life lost due to road traffic deaths in one megacity,China

Objective: Road safety is an important public health issue worldwide. However, few studies have analyzed the association between criminalizing drunk driving and years of life lost (YLL) due to road traffic deaths (RTDs). Our study can provide useful information about this policy.

Methods: We used interrupted time-series analysis to find the changes in monthly YLL and RTD before and after law enforcement began using RTD data from 2008 to 2014 in Tianjin.

Results: After adjustment for seasonality, months, holidays, and the number of people in each district, criminalizing drunk driving was followed by a 11.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–21.1%) reduction in risk of RTDs and a corresponding 778.1-year (95% CI, 200–1,355.1) reduction in monthly YLL. The reduction in YLL was especially significant among males, those aged 16–64 years old, and suburban residents.

Conclusions: This study highlights that the law can lead to a reduction in YLL due to RTDs in Tianjin, China. Large immediate public health benefits resulted from the new road traffic law in China. YLL provides a complementary measure for examining the effect of criminalization on drunk driving RTDs.     

Fatally injured drivers in Norway 2005–2015—Trends in substance use and crash characteristics

Objective: Norway introduced a “Vision Zero” strategy in 2001, using multiple approaches, aiming toward a future in which no one will be killed or seriously injured in road traffic crashes (RTCs). Official statistics show that the number of fatally injured road users has declined substantially from 341 deaths in 2000 to 117 in 2015. In-depth crash investigations of all fatal RTCs started in Norway in 2005. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fatal crash characteristics, vehicle safety features, and prevalence of drugs and/or alcohol among fatally injured drivers and riders has changed during 2005–2015, accompanying the reduction in road fatalities.

Methods: Data on all car/van drivers and motorcycle/moped riders fatally injured in RTCs during 2005–2015 were extracted from Norwegian road traffic crash registries and combined with forensic toxicology data.

Results: The proportion of cars and motorcycles with antilock braking systems and cars with electronic stability control, increased significantly during the study period. The prevalence of nonuse of seat belts/helmets and speeding declined among both fatally injured drivers and riders. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol declined, though no significant change in the total prevalence of other substances was noted.

Conclusion: The observed changes toward more safety installations in cars and motorcycles and lower prevalence of driver-related risk factors like alcohol use, speeding, and nonuse of seat belts/helmets among fatally injured drivers/riders may have contributed to the decrease in road traffic deaths.