环境影响的IPAT模型再认识

伴随工业文明的发展,探究日益恶化环境问题的社会根源成为学术界激烈争论的议题,从人口规模与技术水平的单因素争论拓展到文化背景、政府类型和消费观念等多因素论的讨论,在横向上从宏观社会到微观个体层次的解释,最终形成经典的环境影响的IPAT模型,试图解释环境问题产生的复杂社会动力机制。本文通过国内外学者对IPAT模型的实证研究以及理论探讨梳理发现:模型中的因变量环境影响I以及自变量人口数量P、富裕程度A和技术水平T的内涵、完备性以及分析单位的适用性等方面备受争议。为了克服变量的局限,首先通过分解IPAT模型中T变量,进一步拓展模型中可能被忽略的对环境影响的多重因素;同时为了避免模型中不同因素对环境影响的同比例线性变化的局限性,将IPAT模型转化为非线性的STIRPAT随机模型,使各变量值随观察值的变化而变化;其次为了克服研究中忽视个体对环境影响差异性的不足,以"双重转换"理论为基础分析少数特权群体对环境造成不成比例的影响;最后面对分析单位以及分析情景的差异性与复杂性,基于"世界体系论"视角突破特定区域时空以国家间互动关系为分析单位对全球环境退化展开讨论。研究表明,IPAT模型的发展演变表明环境保护与经济发展关系逐渐从悲观的"零和"冲突走向协调发展的路径,有利于探索更加有效的举措应对全球复杂而严峻的环境问题,同时对新常态下中国推进生态文明建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

Measuring the environmental impact of waste flow management in Brazilian apartment buildings

As biodegradable material represents approximately 70% of household waste in Brazil, any strategy to divert appreciable waste quantities from landfills of necessity has to include valorization and recycling of this material. A societal change of attitude is required to perceive this challenge. Experiments in an urban apartment building are described that produced this change of attitude with a success factor of 80%. Divided waste collection was implemented that separated at the source biodegradable from inert material. Correct collection, handling and display procedures were established. Composting of biodegradable material was carried out under the rooftop of the building as an alternative to using it as animal feed. Half of the inert material entered the reverse logistics chain and was also diverted from the landfill. Waste related material flow through the building is completely quantified, food intake and waste production are related, diversion of both biodegradable and inert waste components from the landfill is measured and the composting process is described. The landfill diversion stands at 61%, mass reduction through the composting process is 80% and matured compost is returned to residents for use in flower cages. The system has been operational for two years and stands out as a precedent in successful decentralized household waste management supported by material flow analysis. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

长江中游水沙灾害形成机理研究

对长江中游泥沙输移规律进行了综合分析,建立了螺山至汉口河段和洞庭湖区泥沙淤积比霽与三口分沙比λS之间的定量关系.通过分析得知.洞庭湖区和螺山至汉口河段各时期多年平均泥沙淤积总量基本保持在180×106t,分沙比的减小调整了上述河段与洞庭湖区之间的淤积关系,使洞庭湖区减少淤积的泥沙转移到上述河段淤积.在此基础上对长江中游泥沙淤积与该区域水位抬高进行了计算分析.文章指出,长江中游防洪的核心是如何正确处理宜昌每年多来的180×106t泥沙淤积问题.     

汽油无铅化与环境空气中铅污染的变化趋势

文章简要分析了 1 998年天津市环境空气及交通环境空气中铅污染的程度。机动车尾气排放是环境空气及交通环境空气中铅污染的重要来源 ,1 998年机动车推广使用无铅汽油后天津市铅污染状况明显减轻。     

引水调控改善太湖湖湾水环境及其效果预测

在总结太湖水污染问题的基础上,分析得出水流缓慢、动力掺混能力弱、水流交换不畅、水体自净能力差、纳污能力小、入湖污染负荷量大且远超过湖湾的纳污能力是梅梁湖湾水污染严重的主要原因,提出区域水污染综合治理、入湖污染物总量控制、引水调控等水污染防治策略及其关键控制技术,利用数值模拟技术给出了太湖梅梁湖湾入湖污染物排放总量控制定额,并结合引江济太调水试验,采用平面二维水流水质数学模型模拟预测引水调控对梅梁湖湾的水环境改善效果及大流量集中调水和小流量维持性调水的水环境     

城区内涝条件下城市公交-地铁双层交通网络的脆弱性分析

为提高城市公共交通应对内涝的能力,利用复杂网络理论的Space-L方法构建了武汉市中心城区的地铁、公交无向加权网络,并在此基础上运用ArcGIS软件构建了不同耦合半径的公交-地铁双层交通网络,确定了连边的权重和节点的重要度,计算了静态下地铁网络、公交网络和不同耦合半径的公交-地铁双层交通网络的介数、平均路径长度和聚类系...     

基于Hankel-DMD的城市交通事故风险时空预测

为解决城市交通事故风险时空分布预测任务中时空关联性捕捉困难的问题,提出基于动态模态分解(DMD)的城市交通事故分析时空预测模型,模型利用总最小二乘法去除交通事故数据中的噪声,应用结合Hankel矩阵的动态模态分解模型(Hankel-DMD)捕捉交通事故风险的时空关联性,对交通事故风险的时空分布进行预测。研究结果表明：DMD框架能够为高维预测任务提供低秩解决方案,从高维数据中捕捉时空关联性;Hankel-DMD模型在预测评价指标平均绝对误差和均方根误差方面的表现明显优于统计学及机器学习等方法;Hankel-DMD模型产生的动态模态和特征值,对事故风险系统的时空动态特征具有一定的可解释性,同时验证Hankel-DMD模型的适用性。     

西安市某地下停车场细颗粒物浓度分布特征

为了解地下停车场细颗粒物分布特征,通过连续监测西安市某地下停车场不同位置细颗粒物小时浓度并采集PM2.5和PM10样品,计算各测点PM2.5和PM10日均浓度。同时对停车场出入口每小时的车流量进行统计,分析细颗粒物浓度与车流量之间的关系。结果表明:该停车场进出车辆具有明显的时间规律,工作日上班高峰期07:00—09:00出口车辆较多,17:00—21:00入口车辆较多,休息日出口峰值出现在09:00—12:00,入口高峰期出现在19:00—23:00,其余时段进出车辆较少。各测点PM2.5小时浓度值在0.004~0.477 mg/m3,平均为0.082 mg/m3,日平均浓度在0.043~0.090 mg/m3,平均为0.057 mg/m3,PM10日均值浓度为0.083~0.348 g/m3,平均为0.189 mg/m3。停车场出入口细颗粒物浓度与车流量之间呈现正相关性,颗粒物浓度在出入口和车流经过频繁的点位较高且细颗粒物所占比重较小(50%)。     

西湖景区土壤典型重金属污染物的来源及空间分布特征

西湖景区由于其特殊的社会价值和地理位置,其土壤重金属污染问题备受关注.本研究通过对景区网格布点采样,采用数学统计学和Arcgis手段进行西湖风景区土壤重金属污染物的来源及空间分布特征分析.结果表明,景区土壤重金属Cu、Zn、Pb有明显人为累积,为景区的主要重金属污染物,浓度范围分别是4.6~197、11.1~885、11.7~346 mg·kg-1.Cu、Pb、Zn含量最高25%的区域都在景区东北部西湖周围绿地面积比例较小、交通道路密度大、城市化程度较高的区域;不同土地利用类型之间这3种重金属污染物含量的多重比较及空间聚类与离散分析的结果表明,交通排放是这3种重金属污染物的主要来源.本研究的结果为城市交通排放重金属污染土壤生态风险评价及城市环境管理提供了基础数据与理论依据.     

Measurement of Traffic Related Toxic Air Pollutants in an Urban Atmosphere

Nose-level measurements of air toxics were made along a busy urban street in Ottawa, Canada for 2 hr periods during morning, noon, and afternoon rush hours in the winter and summer of 2000. Measurements were also made in a commuter car and a transit bus during morning and afternoon commutes in 2000. The main objectives of the study were to establish a database, to determine temporal and seasonal variations and to determine the contribution of motor vehicle traffic to the measured toxic substance concentrations. Ottawa is an appropriate choice of location for the measurement of motor vehicle related toxic and reactive compounds, as it has virtually no industrial sources that could be contributing to the ambient loadings. Samples were collected for a total of 165 volatile organic compounds and 25 carbonyl compounds. Sampling and analytical methodologyare discussed and results are presented. Toluene, ethylene andformaldehyde were the most abundant pollutants in Ottawa during both winter and summer. Total non-methane hydrocarbon concentrationwas measured as 100 g m^-3 at nose-level measurements in Ottawa.