重大道路交通事故救援“任务—职责—履责”探讨

突发事件应对中因救援任务不明确、应对主体职责不清、履责路径不通畅而导致事态扩大和严重问责的情况时有发生,这已成为应急绩效评估中常见的、亟需解决的问题。以某次特别重大道路交通事故应急为切入点,借助高速公路特殊路段典型交通事故救援演练实践,梳理了道路交通事故救援任务单元,匹配了各任务单元的责任主体和应急职责,并析出基于各责任主体应急角色交互的履责路径。该研究对提升当地道路交通事故应急救援整体水平具有借鉴价值。     

调水过程中城市内河含氮污染物负荷变化规律研究

针对我国城市内河污染日益严重的问题,以巢湖市老城区环城河为研究对象,拟定调水方案,进行调水试验。依据沿河水文水质情况,布设6个实时水质监测点,并将环城河概化为5个河段。应用测得的水文水质数据对各河段不同时间点的含氮污染物负荷进行估算,初步研究了各河段NH3-N、TN负荷量的变化规律。通过对比上下游各河段含氮污染物负荷去除效果,分析调水效果的影响因素,总结个别河段调水效果不佳的原因,提出4条优化意见。并结合实际情况,选取其中可行性较强的1条对其有效性进行实验验证。     

中国老年人驾车安全问题及其对策

随着中国进入老龄化社会,老年驾驶员数量将持续增加,这给交通安全带来了新的问题。为保障老年驾驶员的交通安全,在分析老年人生理和心理特征以及老年驾驶员交通事故特点的基础上,提出了适合中国国情的老年驾驶员驾车安全对策。     

INTERBASIN TRANSFER-THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION1

ABSTRACT. A number of interbasin transfers are technically possible on an international scale but extremely few have been developed or are in prospect of early development. The institutional constraints are strong and nationalistic reactions to proposals which strongly favor either one of the nations involved have contributed to delays in development. Many of the more striking illustrations of the problems and opportunities relating to international transfers are present in the proposals for Canadian water export to the United States. Some have antagonized Canadians and made further negotiation difficult but phased and sequential transfers are possible and some could complement Canadian development. An important early phase might be the provision of guarantees for replacement supplies in option agreements that would free current surpluses within the United States for more intensive use. It should no longer be assumed that engineering development will provide adequate benefits for the source region. Allowances for opportunity costs, environmental improvements and some profit on sales appear to be needed for upstream areas if transfers are to be made. Many hazards are present but these can be more than offset by the opportunities if both countries strive for mutual benefit through rational study and continuing negotiation.     

Ninety five percent: an evaluation of law, policy, and programs to promote seat belt use in Washington state

Seat belt use in Washington state was 83% in 2001. In 2002, a series of law, policy, and program initiatives coalesced to produce a dramatic increase in seat belt use. Washington enacted a primary enforcement seat belt, the Chief of the Washington State Patrol made safety belt enforcement one of the core missions of that agency, and Washington participated in the national Memorial Day Click It or Ticket program during May 2002 and continued the program into 2003. Evaluation of these initiatives was accomplished through observation surveys of seat belt use, analysis of seat belt violation data, and analysis of data on traffic deaths of motor vehicle occupants. The major findings were that there was a two- to three-fold increase in enforcement of the seat belt law, belt use rates increased to 93% in 2002 and again to 95% in 2003, and motor-vehicle occupant fatalities decreased by 13%. IMPACT ON PRACTICE AND POLICY: The primary seat belt law and Click It or Ticket program activities were critical factors in increasing belt use in Washington state. Media and enforcement programs targeting seat belt use can be very effective in raising the belt use rate, but a long-term commitment to continuation of these program activities is essential. Other states implementing new primary seat belt laws should consider delivering a Click It or Ticket campaign prior to the effective date of the primary law and continuing these activities during subsequent months and years.     

投资对城市公共交通客运安全的控制分析

关于公共交通基础设施投资建设的研究目的是降低汽车密度 ,从而使公共交通事故减少。笔者主要研究如何进行投资建设 ,使公共交通客流按照一定的增长率增长 ,不至于引起客流较大的波动 ,保障人们出行的安全。首先 ,建立投资控制模型 ,分析其能控性和稳定性 ;由于该系统不是渐进稳定 ,投资策略只能采用有状态反馈的极点配置策略 ;采用待定系数法得出投资策略的数学表达式。最后 ,对结果进行验证并分析策略的优缺点。得出以下两个结论 :即在该投资策略下 ,系统在两步之内便逼近目标 ,有快速反应的品质 ;若需求在短时间内按照给定的规律增长 ,必须加大投资力度。笔者还给出展望和建议。     

试论我国道路交通危机管理体系的构建

道路交通危机事件具有意外性、紧急性和危险性等特征,人们在处理过程中往往面临着各种信息不完全、信息不准确或信息反馈不及时等情况,因此,在对整个危机事件的处理过程中都充满了复杂性、快速性等特点。笔者从危机管理角度,提出了道路交通危机和道路交通危机管理的概念;分析了道路交通危机管理的特点以及国内外目前的现状;探讨了在我国建立道路交通危机管理体系的必要性;从道路交通危机管理制度、管理机构、运行机制等方面讨论了构建道路交通危机管理体系的整体框架;从宏观角度重点研究了道路交通危机管理运行机制的预警机制、快速反应机制、信息发布机制、协调机制、评价机制等方面问题。     

MORPHOLOGIC RESPONSE OF SUBALPINE STREAMS TO TRANSBASIN FLOW DIVERSION1

ABSTRACT: Flow has been diverted from Rocky Mountain streams for many years with little documentation of the impacts on physical form and biological function of the losing stream system. This study addresses whether differences in form can be detected in subalpine step-pool, plane bed, or pool-riffle channels and linked to changes in flow regime from diversion. Total annual discharge was reduced between 20 and 60 percent and average annual peak flow was reduced up to 45 percent in the subalpine systems assessed; channels were diverted between 20 and 100 years. Expected impacts include reduced conveyance and changes in vegetation growth patterns because formerly active surfaces are colonized by riparian species, effectuating shrinking channel capacity. In this study, reduced channel width is used as an indicator of morphologic response. Observed reductions in width, ranging from 35 to 50 percent at some sites, resulted not only from vegetation invasion of stable surfaces but also from the development of an inset beside former cut banks. This observation, however, was restricted to wider pool-riffle channels with gravel bars. Outside of these areas, morphologic changes were either subtle or absent. The absence of widespread response is attributed primarily to periodic “flooding” of the diverted channel. During wetter-than-average years when excess water is available, minimal flow is diverted and the hydrograph resembles a free-flowing regime. The release of high flow to the natural channel potentially offsets changes in form incurred during “dry” periods. The stable nature and structure of subalpine channels also contributes to the absence of reduced capacity.     

LAKE MICHIGAN DIVERSION - STREAM QUALITY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: By United States Supreme Court action, the diversion of water from Lake Michigan and the Lake Michigan Drainage Basin in the Metropolitan Chicago Area is regulated at an annual maximum rate of 3,200 cfs. Approximately 1,700 cfs of this diversion is used for water supply, and the remaining 1,500 cfs consists primarily of stormwater runoff with lesser amounts of direct lake diversion, such as lockage and leakage, navigational makeup water flows, and discretionary diversion needed to maintain water quality standards in the Metropolitan Sanitary District of Greater Chicago's basic waterways. In order to assess the schedule of its discretionary diversion needs, the District, using a computer model of its basic waterway system, has calculated the minimum discretionary diversion requirements for projected water quality conditions as successive elements of the District's water pollution control program are completed. The results of these analyses can be used as a basis for developing plans for future allocations of the limited supply of Lake Michigan water to other uses such as domestic water supply, when and if such supplies become available.     

ENERGY LOSS AND REPLACEMENT COST OF NAVIGATION OF THE SNAKE-COLUMBIA RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: A competitive relationship exists between power production and navigation in the allocation of water resources along the Snake-Columbia River Complex. This report identifies the energy losses within the power system and the replacement costs of water diversion which resulted from commercial and recreational navigation of the Complex over the period 1975–1977.