双碳目标下电力系统转型对产业部门影响评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

通过细化机组级燃煤发电财务状况建模,测算了提前退役、灵活性调整、限制和停止新增等情景下煤电搁浅资产风险,明确了不同情景下导致搁浅资产规模及时空分布情况.结果表明:存量煤电机组是引起搁浅资产的主体,控制新增煤电有助于降低搁浅资产风险,提前退役、灵活性调整情景下中国现存和新增煤电搁浅资产总规模分别为1.90万亿和3.98万亿元;不同转型情景导致煤电搁浅资产的年际分布差异明显,提前退役搁浅压力主要集中于2030~2040年间,灵活性调整情景下则集中于2021~2035年间;煤电搁浅资产空间分布极不均衡,山东、内蒙古、江苏等10个煤电大省搁浅资产规模占全国的67%和70%.因此,煤电低碳转型需审慎决策,重视提前退役造成的煤电资产搁浅,更要防范和控制灵活性调整导致的煤电资产减值,重点关注山东、内蒙古、新疆、江苏等重点省份,制定因地制宜的煤电转型策略,帮助电力相关企业及政府等进行减排政策选择.     

长江上游滇西北地区植物区系组成及物种多样性

长江上游滇西北地区是全球重要的生物多样性热点地区之一,也是长江流域重要的生态屏障。利用最新的文献数据,结合过去5 a的野外考察成果,分析了滇西北地区的植物区系组成及其物种多样性。研究结果表明：滇西北地区拥有种子植物6 559种,分属于205科,1 281属。滇西北地区以04%的国土面积,拥有我国种子植物科数的74%,属数的41%和物种数的20%。同时也以10%的土地面积,拥有云南地区种子植物科数的77%,属数的55%和物种数的43%。在热带区系组成方面,比重较大的分布区类型为泛热带分布(165%)和热带亚洲分布(122%);在温带区系方面,北温带分布和东亚分布所占比重比较高,分别为193%和145%。热带区系成分与温带区系成分所占的比重非常接近,分别为47%和53%,表现出强烈的区系过渡性,这可能与地层抬升、板块漂移和温性植物类群的迁入有关。温带区系比重略高于热带区系,说明该区域的植物区系具有一定的温凉性质,这与滇西北地区相对温凉的气候环境是一致的。科的分化强度为63;属的分化强度为51。研究区域内丰富的植物多样性与其复杂的生境、强烈的区系过渡性和区系分化是一致的。滇西北地区可能是验证、发展各种生物多样性假说的理想场所。因此,滇西北地区的植物多样性不仅值得人们关注和保护,而且也值得研究和探索。与滇东北的药山自然保护区相比,滇西北地区拥有更高比重的热带亚洲成分,这可能与古南大陆的“掸邦 马来亚”板块的位移和旋转有关。滇西北地区与滇西南的铜壁关自然保护区在植物区系高级分区和系统进化的起源上具有一定的联系,在一定程度上证实了“田中线”的真实存在。联系滇西北地区植物区系与铜壁关自然保护区植物区系的节点可能是研究区域内的独龙江地区.     

基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的小城镇灾害易损性分析

为了准确评价小城镇灾害易损性所处的状态,进而为制定小城镇防灾减灾规划提供科学依据,提出了基于贝叶斯公式的小城镇灾害易损性随机评价方法。该方法通过计算小城镇灾害易损性单个指标属于某个评价级别的概率,由最大似然分类原则确定单个易损性指标的评价级别,进而采用最大加权概率原则推求其综合评价级别。通过实例计算分析,并与模糊评估方法、可拓物元评价方法进行比较验证,说明了该方法的可行性及其简单、实用的特点。     

合肥台短水准异常与周边地震活动分析

以合肥台跨郯庐断裂短水准数据为基础,结合华东地区中强震及安徽地区小震释放能量分析了历史测量资料在地震期间的变化,研究了辅助资料对测量资料的影响,得出:(1)降水虽可能造成敏感地块的断层形变异常,但在区域应力作用断层到一定强度时断层形变异常仍具有一定的前兆意义.(2)华东地区中强地震、安徽地区小震(群)与合肥台断层形变存...     

Long-term dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in Austria: a comprehensive assessment of the time period from 1830 to 2000

This article presents a comprehensive data set on Austria’s terrestrial carbon stocks from the beginnings of industrialization in the year 1830 to the present. It is based on extensive historical and recent land use and forestry data derived from primary sources (cadastral surveys) for the early nineteenth century, official statistics available for later parts of the nineteenth century as well as the twentieth century, and forest inventory data covering the second half of the twentieth century. Total carbon stocks—i.e. aboveground and belowground standing crop and soil organic carbon—are calculated for the entire period and compared to those of potential vegetation. Results suggest that carbon stocks were roughly constant from 1830 to 1880 and have grown considerably from 1880 to 2000, implying that Austria’s vegetation has acted as a carbon sink since the late nineteenth century. Carbon stocks increased by 20% from approximately 1.0 GtC in 1830 and 1880 to approximately 1.2 GtC in the year 2000, a value still much lower than the amount of carbon terrestrial ecosystems are expected to contain in the absence of land use: According to calculations presented in this article, potential vegetation would contain some 2.0 GtC or 162% of the present terrestrial carbon stock, suggesting that the recent carbon sink results from a recovery of biota from intensive use in the past. These findings are in line with the forest transition hypothesis which claims that forest areas are growing in industrialized countries. Growth in forest area and rising carbon stocks per unit area of forests both contribute to the carbon sink. We discuss the hypothesis that the carbon sink is mainly caused by the shift from area-dependent energy sources (biomass) in agrarian societies to the largely area-independent energy system of industrial societies based above all on fossil fuels.     

岩溶槽谷区耕地涨落时空特征与驱动机制

研究岩溶槽谷区耕地的涨落时空演变规律,对揭示岩溶山地乡村人地关系演变具有重要意义。以印江县为例,基于地貌特征把全县划分为槽谷区、低山河谷区、梵净中山区、丘陵谷地区,利用多源数据对印江县1958-2016年的耕地数量变化及其在不同高程、坡度上的分布演变进行了探讨。研究表明：（1）全县及各分区耕地都表现为先增加后减少、林灌地先减少后增加的变化趋势。1990年之前林灌地向耕地转移,之后耕地向林灌地转移,但各分区转移程度有所不同。（2）耕地的涨落高程界限为700 m,低于700 m时,1990年之前扩张,之后萎缩;涨落幅度随着高程增加而递减;高于700 m时,涨落不明显。（3）以1990年为界,各坡度范围耕地1990年之前扩张,1990年之后萎缩;在小于25°的坡度范围内,随坡度增加,耕地涨落幅度递增;在大于25°的坡度范围内,随坡度增加,耕地涨落幅度递减。（4）研究区耕地的涨落变化与当地农户对土地依赖程度相关,依赖程度高,耕地扩张;依赖程度低,耕地萎缩。研究结果可以为优化岩溶区人地关系发展提供参考依据。     

转型期城市旅游业绩效评价及空间格局演化机理——以泛长江三角洲地区为例

论文从经济、市场、效率、公平四个方面构建了旅游业绩效的评价体系,运用熵值法综合测度1998、2003、2008年泛长江三角洲城市旅游业绩效,并结合GIS的空间分析模块,系统分析了泛长江三角洲城市旅游业绩效空间格局的演化过程。结果表明:泛长江三角洲城市旅游业绩效空间分异明显,总体上呈现提高态势,3个时间断面均呈现东西方向递增,南北方向倒"U"型分布格局;相邻地域单元表现较弱的空间集聚特征,绩效系统内部整体协调度不强,部分城市旅游业绩效水平与协调度高度耦合;针对旅游业绩效区域差异格局演化的形成机理剖析表明,经济驱动、市场驱动、产业链驱动、政府驱动及其相互间的综合驱动共同作用促使了城市旅游业绩效空间格局的演化。     

Exposing violences: Using women's human rights theory to reconceptualize food rights

Exposing food violences – hunger,malnutrition, and poisoning from environmentalmismanagement – requires policy action thatconfronts the structured invisibility of theseviolences. Along with the hidden deprivation offood is the physical and political isolation ofcritical knowledge on food violences and needs,and for policy strategies to address them. Iargue that efforts dedicated on behalf of ahuman right to food can benefit from thetheoretical analysis and activist work of theinternational Women's Rights are Human Rights(WRHR) movement. WRHR focuses on women andgirls; the food rights movement operates onbehalf of all people, with an emphasis on thepoor. Both attend to the protection of bodilyintegrity against physical and psychicviolences. Both cope with bodily violences thatare socially privatized and spatiallysegregated from public institutions of relief,that is, they are tacitly omitted from publicdiscourse and purview. Most typically, but notexclusively, these violences unfold in privatehousehold space. Both rights movements mustmobilize political rights to demand economicand social rights and security. I introduce theUnited Nations' early Declaration (1948) andCovenant (1966) language on the human right tofood and review problems of household accessand grassroots engagement that are ``writteninto' this early documentation. An abbreviatedoverview of the WRHR movement describes how thepublic/private and economic/political rightsdichotomies have been critiqued andre-formulated. A case study set in Polandacross the transition from (more) communist to(more) capitalist political economies attemptsto illuminate the discussion through agrounded example.     

The formation of dithionate during the iron(III)-catalysed autoxidation of sulfur(IV)-oxides

The iron(III)-catalyzed autoxidation of sulfur(IV)-oxides results in the formation of two different oxidation products of sulfur(IV): dithionate, S₂O₆²⁻, and sulfate, SO₄²⁻. The yield of these reaction products depends on the experimental conditions. Under the studied conditions ([Fe(III)] : [SIV)] = 1:10, pH = 2–4) dithionate is the minor reaction product. The formation of dithionate is influenced by the initial pH but not by the initial O₂ concentration. The presence of CO²⁺, Mn²⁺, and Ni²⁺ have no influence on the yield of dithionate, whereas in the presence of Cr³⁺ less and, in the presence of Cu²⁺, no dithionate is formed.     

废水生化处理微生物对TCC／TCS生物毒性适应性研究

文章研究了抑菌剂TCC／TCS在废水生化处理系统的迁移转化规律、与微生物的作用机理及废水生化系统的反馈适应机制，对这类废水的工艺设计、工艺控制提供了有益的参考。