技术差距变动、研发资源驱动与技术进步效应

随着中国经济逐渐进入"新常态"时期,创新驱动经济增长已经成为中国经济增长和产业结构调整的新引擎。在创新驱动实现的过程中,研发驱动技术进步是关键环节。特别是,中国各地区之间技术差距较大,在不同技术差距下分析研发资源对技术进步的驱动效应尤为重要。本文以技术差距为转换变量,构建了中国高技术产业的面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型,对不同技术差距阶段研发、人力资本、溢出效应等对技术进步的差异化驱动效应进行了研究。研究结论发现,在技术差距的影响下,研发没有充分发挥对技术进步率的驱动效应,人力资本对技术进步率的影响呈现明显的非对称性,溢出效应对于技术进步的贡献不足。在不同技术差距间,存在着迅速和平缓两种转换机制。在快速转换机制中,研发溢出对技术进步的促进作用得以体现。而在慢速转换机制中,技术差距、人力资本对技术进步率的影响显著为正,两个转换机制中各变量的影响呈现"此消彼长"的关系。此外,技术差距适度时技术进步的"稳态"特征十分明显,而技术差距过小或过大时则是技术进步的不稳定区间。考虑到我国各地区高技术产业发展的多层次和多元化特征,各地区应根据技术水平的现状,选取适宜的高技术进行引进。关于高技术产业中的消化吸收能力不足问题,不能简单地依靠增大技术引进和消化吸收经费支出来解决。必须依靠加大技术后发地区的教育投入,提升落后地区的人力资本水平。最后,为充分实现不同地区高技术产业之间的协同创新与共同进步,还应着重组建协同创新机构,构建集成创新网络,进而形成区域内与地区间的功能互补与良好协作机制,实现高技术产业的可持续发展。     

江苏省淮安市赵集镇旅游开发战略研究

乡镇旅游开发战略决定着乡镇旅游的发展成败。从分析旅游开发战略环境、确立战略指导思想、构建战略原则、确定开发战略定位、落实战略重点、推进战略措施、设置战略项目等方面论述了江苏省淮安市赵集镇的旅游开发战略模式。     

森林转型、农地边际化与生态恢复

中国20世纪80年代迎来了国家土地利用形态的转型,即代表自然生态空间的森林面积降至低谷后反转向上,代表人类干扰较强的耕地面积从扩张到收缩.这是生态状况从整体恶化向整体改善转变的最直接原因.森林转型对应着国家经济社会发展的阶段性演进过程,存在着必然性.其直接原因,是农林交错带的农业在与森林竞争土地资源的过程中失去优势.伴随工业化和城市化的劳动力价格上升,生活水平提高带来的林木产品需求增加,是森林竞争力提高和农业竞争力下降的经济驱动力;而转型前农业扩张引起的生态退化,则是其政策驱动力.在中国森林转型初期,政策起到了关键的促进作用.随着城市化的加速发展,人口年龄结构向老年型转变,中国迎来了劳动力工资持续上涨的阶段.以坡耕地为代表的劳动力密集型农地利用方式,由于难以实现机械化,劳动生产率与平原区农业的差距将越来越大,被“边际化”的可能性越来越高.这给森林面积或自然生态空间的进一步扩张提供了机会.     

中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的碳排放效应

确定中国对外直接投资(OFDI)对CO2排放的影响路径,对"一带一路"沿线国家如何有效利用中国OFDI以实现可持续发展具有重要作用。该研究基于2003—2018年45个沿线国家的面板数据,应用具有阈值和动态特征的面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型,评估中国OFDI对CO2排放的直接效应和间接效应、线性效应和非线性效应。研究发现:(1)中国OFDI对沿线国家CO2排放的直接影响显著为负。(2)中国OFDI的规模效应增加了沿线国家CO2排放,其结构效应和技术效应进一步抑制了沿线国家CO2排放,且技术效应在间接效应中占有主导地位。(3)异质性分析表明,中国OFDI的碳减排效应更多体现在低收入国家。针对以上研究发现,文章认为沿线国家应持续引进中国OFDI,并通过提高能效和推广应用清洁能源打破经济发展的"不可持续性";中国政府应继续鼓励并引导具有竞争力的企业"走出去",充分发挥中国投资对东道国环境的改善作用,放大中国投资对低收入国家的技术溢出效应;中国应根据沿线国家经济发展水平对东道国实施差异化投资策略,实现中国投资环境效益最优化。     

From Forest Landscape to Agricultural Landscape in the Developing Tropical Country of Malaysia: Pattern,Process, and Their Significance on Policy

Agricultural expansion and deforestation are spatial processes of land transformation that impact on landscape pattern. In peninsular Malaysia, the conversion of forested areas into two major cash crops—rubber and oil palm plantations—has been identified as driving significant environmental change. To date, there has been insufficient literature studying the link between changes in landscape patterns and land-related development policies. Therefore, this paper examines: (i) the links between development policies and changes in land use/land cover and landscape pattern and (ii) the significance and implications of these links for future development policies. The objective is to generate insights on the changing process of land use/land cover and landscape pattern as a functional response to development policies and their consequences for environmental conditions. Over the last century, the development of cash crops has changed the country from one dominated by natural landscapes to one dominated by agricultural landscapes. But the last decade of the century saw urbanization beginning to impact significantly. This process aligned with the establishment of various development policies, from land development for agriculture between the mid 1950s and the 1970s to an emphasis on manufacturing from the 1980s onward. Based on a case study in Selangor, peninsular Malaysia, a model of landscape pattern change is presented. It contains three stages according to the relative importance of rubber (first stage: 1900–1950s), oil palm (second stage: 1960s–1970s), and urban (third stage: 1980s–1990s) development that influenced landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity. The environmental consequences of this change have been depicted through loss of biodiversity, geohazard incidences, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. The spatial ecological information can be useful to development policy formulation, allowing diagnosis of the country’s “health” and sustainability. The final section outlines the usefulness of landscape analysis in the policy-making process to prevent further fragmentation of the landscape and forest loss in Malaysia in the face of rapid economic development.

江南水乡区域景观体系特征与整体保护机制

20世纪80年代江南六大水乡古镇被发现、保护,并且进行旅游开发之后,该区以其独有的水乡风貌特色和丰厚的文化底蕴,成为华东地区重要的旅游目的地。旅游为古镇带来了显著的经济、社会和文化效益,形成了古镇独特的发展模式。然而在发展的同时,因受城市化、工业化、商业化和现代化的冲击,该区域不仅呈现出商业化过度、现代化过快、空心化明显、克隆化普遍和超载化突出的严重问题,而且其赖以存在的江南水乡区域景观体系也遭受到前所未有的破坏,使江南六镇的保护出现孤岛化现象。依托江南水乡文化遗存的区域景观整体的研究,探讨了古镇及区域景观体系保护与持续利用的内在机制。     

Tightening the grip: environmental governance under Xi Jinping

In the space of a few years, China’s global image with regard to environmental matters has significantly improved. Particularly since Xi Jinping’s coming-to-power in 2012 China’s reputation in the global climate change regime has improved markedly and it has gained accolades for a new determination to reverse environmental degradation at home. China’s incipient green transformation is partly due to a new actor constellation in environmental governance, a striking feature of which is the prominence of ad hoc campaigns that offer quick results but that may undermine the creation of law-based enforcement mechanisms in the long term. Another development – China’s increasing use of emerging technologies and big data analytics – has given rise to new forms of government-business alliances. These new players and innovative approaches have injected momentum into China’s environmental governance system and suggest that, contrary to conventional wisdom, authoritarian regimes can be responsive to citizen demands under certain circumstances. Yet it remains to be seen whether long-term environmental goals can be met, due to a pervasive lack of accountability, the weakening of civil society and heavy constraints on public participation.     

New subjects in the politics of energy transition? Reactivating the northern German oil and gas infrastructure

The global circulation of the word ‘fracking’ seems to testify to a setback for energy transitions, a nexus that has not yet received much scholarly attention. In light of this, the controversy over fracking is understood as furthering infrastructural changes that are central to energy transitions. Infrastructure should not be understood as materiality per se but instead as sedimented but ultimately discursive elements that can be reactivated and rearticulated. Examining ‘infrastructure’ from the point of view of discourse theory places the focus on infrastructural change. Prior to 2011, the oil and gas infrastructure in northern Germany was largely invisible to the public. The subsequent reassembling of production with fracking facilitated the politicization not just of that term but also of the whole infrastructure. Instead of routinely reproducing the infrastructure, subjects that had formerly dominated the field were confronted with new and heterogeneous voices that challenged their agency.     

过渡金属氧化物催化氧化NO实验研究

采用沉淀法制备出一系列过渡金属氧化物催化剂,在内径为10 mm的固定床反应器中考察其对低浓度NO的催化氧化活性,催化反应活性顺序为:MnCrCoCuFeZn,并考察了以锰为活性组分采用低温固相法、流变相法和浸渍法制备的催化剂催化氧化NO的活性。实验结果表明,采用流变相法和低温固相法制备的锰氧化物催化剂,在反应温度150℃,NO浓度为5×10-4,O2为3%,N2为平衡气,空速51 000 h-1条件下,NO转化率分别为65%和57%;采用浸渍法制备的Mn/TiO2-10%催化剂,在反应温度200℃,空速相同的条件下,NO转化率为47%。     

高速公路转换区严重冲突识别与分析

为深入探究高速公路改扩建转换区发生严重冲突的原因,使用高精度雷达采集单车实时状态数据,对单车区间初速度与加速度进行K-means聚类组合.基于聚类组合内的冲突率与路段事故率,采用Pearson系数法确定车辆的严重冲突阈值.融合转换区单车、交通流和道路因素建立二项Logistic模型,分析严重冲突因素的影响程度.结果表明...