Availability estimation of a multi-state wind farm in fuzzy environment

Wind is one of the fastest growing renewable energy resources in the electric power system. Availability of wind energy is volatile in nature due to the stochastic behavior of wind speed and non-linear variation of the wind power curve of wind turbine generator. Because of this impression and uncertainty, the availability estimation of wind power has become a challenging issue. In this paper, Markov Fuzzy Reward technique has been proposed for finding out the reliability of wind farm by assessing the availability of wind power. According to this technique, availability of the wind power has been estimated considering wind farm and demand both as a multi-state system. In addition to the availability, different reliability indices such as the number of absolute failures, mean time to deficiency, and probability of failures of a wind farm have been assessed in a time horizon, which can provide useful information for the power system planner at wind farm installing stage. A comparison of this study reveals the efficacy of the proposed Markov Fuzzy Reward approach over the conventional Markov Reward approach.     

The “second dividend” and the demographic structure

The demographic structure of a country influences economic activity. The “second dividend” modifies growth. Accordingly, in general equilibrium, the second dividend and the demographic structure are interrelated. This paper aims at assessing empirically the “second dividend” in a dynamic, empirical and intertemporal setting that allows for measuring its impact on growth, its intergenerational redistributive effects, and its interaction with the demographic structure. The paper uses a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, an energy module and a public finance module that distinguishes between non-ageing-related public spending and a pension regime. Policy scenarios compare the consequences of different scenarios of recycling a carbon tax through lower proportional income taxes rather than higher public lump-sum expenditures. They are computed for two countries with different demographics (France and Germany). Results suggest that the magnitude of the “second dividend” is significantly related with the demographic structure. The more concentrated the demographic structure on cohorts with higher income and saving rate, the stronger the effect on capital supply of the second dividend. The second dividend weighs on the welfare of relatively aged working cohorts. It fosters the wellbeing of young working cohorts and of future generations. The more concentrated the demographic structure on aged working cohorts, the higher the intergenerational redistributive effects of the second dividend.     

(Local-) community for global challenges: carbon conversations,transition towns and governmental elisions

This article addresses the narrowing interpretation of community when governmentalised: that of community's elision with local. First it surveys five broad academic and policy interpretations of the community implied in low carbon transitions. These demonstrate the persistence of community's broad and open-ended polysemy today. Second it looks more closely at the role community plays in UK environmental governance today, including specific evidence from two such government-funded community initiatives used to meet global environmental challenges: Transition Towns and Carbon Conversations. Third it provides a critique of community governance-beyond-the-state. It argues that community used to “jump scales” in response to global challenges like climate change, is often at its most narrow: local and governmentalised. Doing so helps contextualise the governmentalisation of (local-) community in UK environmental governance. Often it is localised in order to delegate (perceived) agency and responsibility onto individual actors at a local level.     

Effect of ignition position on the run-up distance to DDT for hydrogen-air explosions

The method described in this paper enabled reliable and accurate positioning of an overdriven detonation by calculation of shock wave velocities (detonation and retonation) for hydrogen explosions in a closed 18 m long horizontal DN150 pipe. This enabled an empirical correlation between the ignition position and the run-up distance to DDT to be determined. It was shown that the initial ability of the flame to expand unobstructed and the piston-like effect of burnt gas expanding against the closed end of the tube contributed to initial flame acceleration and hence were able to affect the run-up distance to overdriven detonation. Flame speeds and rates of initial pressure rise were also used to explain how these two competing effects were able to produce a minimum in the run-up distance to DDT. The shortest run-up distance to DDT, relative to the ignition position, for this pipe and gas configuration was found when the ignition position was placed 5.6 pipe diameters (or 0.9 m) from the closed pipe end. The shortest run-up distance to DDT relative to the end of the pipe was recorded when the ignition source was placed 4.4 pipe diameters or 0.7 m from the pipe end.     

Paired Border Towns or TwinCities from Finland and China

This paper discusses cross-border cooperation at the level of urban socio-economic systems. Worldwide, cross-border urban cooperation has in several cases produced socio-economic and political coherence supported by various joint programs and efforts. However, the degree of coherence varies and seldom creates socio-economically and politically tightly integrated ＂Twin- Cities＂ where the state border becomes highly transparent or obscure. Focusing on Finlan d and China, our aim is to identify whether the selected border towns represent coherent TwinCities or a more loose type of ＂paired border towns＂. The study uses an empirical examination of three Finnish towns （Helsinki, Tornio, Imatra） and their neighboring towns in Estonia, Sweden, and Russia as a benchmark. Then, a comparative study is made regarding three Chinese cross-border cities facing Russia, Vietnam and Kazakhstan. We highlight the differences in cross-border integration from the viewpoint of shared public sector programs, cross-border enterprise relocation and networking, and integrated social sector in terms of labor market, education and shopping area.     

Land use change in Southern Romania after the collapse of socialism

The drastic socio-economic and political changes that occurred after the breakdown of socialism in Eastern Europe triggered widespread land use change, including cropland abandonment and forest cover changes. Yet the rates and spatial patterns of post-socialist land use change remain largely unclear. We used Landsat TM/ETM+ images to classify land cover maps and assess landscape pattern changes from 1990 to 2005 in Argeş County, Southern Romania. Cropland abandonment was the most widespread change (21.1% abandonment rate), likely due to declining returns from farming, tenure insecurity, and demographic developments during transition. Forest cover and forest fragmentation remained remarkably stable during transition, despite widespread ownership transfers. Cropland abandonment provides opportunities for increased carbon sequestration, but threatens cultural landscapes and biodiversity. Continued monitoring is important for assessing whether abandoned croplands will eventually reforest or be put back into production and to better understand the consequences of post-socialist land use change for ecosystems and biodiversity.     

Agriculture adjustment, land-use transition and protected areas in Northwestern Argentina

Land-use change is the main component of regional environmental change, while protected areas represent a direct land use policy to prevent its potentially negative effects on biodiversity and environmental services. We combined an analysis of trends in land use and human demography with trends in creation of protected areas during the last three decades in northwestern Argentina, a subtropical region including a wide range of environments. The eighty nine administrative analysis units of the region were classified into four ecological groups based on their percentage of cover by the six eco-regions of the study area: (1) "Dry valleys"; dominated by Middle-elevation deserts; (2) "Highlands", dominated by High-elevation alpine zones and plateaus; (3) "Humid ecosystems", dominated by Foggy grasslands and Humid forests, and (4) "Dry forests". Between 1970 and 2002, human population became concentrated in urban areas and land use trends varied greatly among the four ecological groups. Agricultural area decreased in the Highlands and increased in the other regions, particularly in the Dry forests. Domestic animals decreased in Humid ecosystems, Highlands and the Dry valleys; and remained constant in the Dry forests. Several protected areas were created, but most of them were established in regions undergoing a decreasing intensity of land use. Overall, the analysis shows that agricultural production is becoming concentrated in the areas more suitable for modern agriculture while marginal agriculture areas and, particularly, extensive grazing are decreasing. The creation of protected areas reflects the decreasing opportunity costs of marginal areas and is failing to protect the eco-regions most threatened by current land-use trends.     

过渡金属氧化物催化氧化NO实验研究

采用沉淀法制备出一系列过渡金属氧化物催化剂,在内径为10 mm的固定床反应器中考察其对低浓度NO的催化氧化活性,催化反应活性顺序为:MnCrCoCuFeZn,并考察了以锰为活性组分采用低温固相法、流变相法和浸渍法制备的催化剂催化氧化NO的活性。实验结果表明,采用流变相法和低温固相法制备的锰氧化物催化剂,在反应温度150℃,NO浓度为5×10-4,O2为3%,N2为平衡气,空速51 000 h-1条件下,NO转化率分别为65%和57%;采用浸渍法制备的Mn/TiO2-10%催化剂,在反应温度200℃,空速相同的条件下,NO转化率为47%。     

Ignition characteristics, conditions of criticality and disappearance of criticality of cumene hydroperoxide reaction by modeling approach

The thermal explosion problem of cumene hydroperoxide exothermic reaction which is used in chemical industries for production of some chemical materials is investigated. The analytical solutions of the problem to determine the margin between ignition and non-ignition systems are presented. The solution offers different analytical expressions which relate between the critical parameters for both steady and unsteady-states in different planes of solutions for different cases. The numerical solutions in different planes offer different trajectories of solution as sub-critical (non-ignition) and supercritical (ignition). Also from the numerical solution the relations between the critical parameters are presented. The critical behaviors from both analytical and numerical solutions are concise and pertained the same results.     

江苏省淮安市赵集镇旅游开发战略研究

乡镇旅游开发战略决定着乡镇旅游的发展成败。从分析旅游开发战略环境、确立战略指导思想、构建战略原则、确定开发战略定位、落实战略重点、推进战略措施、设置战略项目等方面论述了江苏省淮安市赵集镇的旅游开发战略模式。