生态系统服务约束关系界定及影响机制分析

以长江经济带为研究对象,选择InVEST模型对长江经济带代表性的5种生态系统服务进行评估,根据两两配对关系原理进行约束线提取,并构建生态系统服务约束关系与影响因素相互作用模型,对其作用机制进行探究.结果表明,2000~2015年长江经济带5种生态系统服务两两间共表现出矩形型,对数型,抛物线型和驼峰型4种约束类型;7种影响因素与配对的10对约束关系间均呈弱相关性;影响因子与约束关系作用关系曲线的空间变化呈现较大差异,总体为上下波动的趋势;影响因子对约束关系的贡献程度情况各异.辐射对约束关系的平均贡献率最高,达21.43%,其中对粮食供给-生境质量的贡献率最高,为33.10%;NDVI的平均贡献率最低,为7.55%,其中对粮食供给-生境质量的贡献率最低,为5.70%;各因素间相互作用、彼此制约的关系是生态系统服务约束关系变化的内在机制.     

土地资源的多级网格数据结构建立与应用研究

传统的基于行政区的土地统计数据不能完全表现区域内部土地利用的空间分异特征,以武汉市为实验区,对基于网格的统计信息算法STING(Statistical Information Grid-based method)进行扩展,以景观多样性指数为定量化指标对实验区进行四叉树划分生成不均匀多级网格,建立一种拟合了行政区划界线的不均匀的多级网格结构来存储、管理和分析土地数据。并以此多级网格数据结构为平台计算和生成实验区人口密度空间分异渲染图,初步抽取了人口分布与土地利用之间的关系。实验表明,基于多级网格的统计方法能更好地表达土地利用及其相关数据的空间分异性,利于对土地资源数据的进一步挖掘以抽取所需知识。     

二叉树创建算法的研究

通过对二叉树四种遍历方法的分析,给出四种建立二叉树的通用算法,以及对这些算法效率的初步分析．解决了二叉树在实际应用中创建的问题,同时,给出的算法对一些高级树型数据结构的研究也具有一定参考价值．参4．     

Modelling the abundance of three key plant species in New Zealand hill-pasture using a decision tree approach

Decision tree models were developed to investigate and predict the relative abundance of three key pasture plants [ryegrass (Lolium perenne), browntop (Agrostis capillaris), and white clover (Trifolium repens)] with integration of a geographical information system (GIS) in a naturalised hill-pasture in the North Island, New Zealand, and were compared with regression models with respect to model fit and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that the decision tree models had a better model fit in terms of average squared error (ASE) and a higher percentage of adequately predicted cases in model validation than the corresponding regression models. These decision tree models clearly revealed the relative importance of environmental and management variables in influencing the abundance of these three species. Hill slope was the most significant environmental factor influencing the abundance of ryegrass while soil Olsen P and annual P fertilizer input were the most significant factors influencing the abundance of browntop, and white clover, respectively. Soil Olsen P of approximately 10 μg/g, or a slope of about 10.5° was critical points where the competition between ryegrass and browntop tended to come to an equilibrium. Integrating the decision tree models with a GIS in this study not only facilitated the model development and analyses, but also provided a useful decision support tool in pasture management such as in assisting precision fertilizer placement. The insights obtained from the decision tree models also have important implications for pasture management, for example, it is important to maintain a soil Olsen P higher than 10 μg/g in order to keep the dominance of ryegrass in the hill-pasture.     

计算机辅助事故树分析中的图形输入法

笔者提出计算机辅助事故树分析中事故树数据的图形输入法。通过详细讨论数据采集过程中数据结构的选用和算法设计 ,不但能方便地实现计算机辅助事故树绘图 ,而且在绘图的同时得到事故树的全部数据 ,进而可对事故树进行全部定性和定量分析。这种方法是计算机辅助事故树分析中绘图和数据输入方法的重要补充 ,同时也将有益于其他类型树及图的绘制和分析。最后 ,给出了一个实例 ,应用图形输入法得到满意的结果。该方法不仅是事故树的新绘制方法 ,也是全新的事故树数据输入法 ,是事故树算法的拓展和补充     

A TREE‐RING RECONSTRUCTION OF STREAMFLOW FOR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE1

ABSTRACT: Water resource planning is based primarily on 20th century instrumental records of climate and streamflow. These records are limited in length to approximately 100 years, in the best cases, and can reflect only a portion of the range of natural variability. The instrumental record neither can be used to gage the unusualness of 20th Century extreme low flow events, nor does it allow the detection of low‐frequency variability that may underlie short‐term variations in flow. In this study, tree rings are used to reconstruct mean annual streamflow for Middle Boulder Creek in the Colorado Front Range, a semi‐arid region of rapid growth and development. The reconstruction is based on a stepwise regression equation that accounts for 70 percent of the variance in the instrumental record, and extends from 1703–1987. The reconstruction suggests that the instrumental record of streamflow for Middle Boulder Creek is not representative of flow in past centuries and that several low flow events in the 19th century were more persistent than any in the 20th century. The 1840s to early 1850s period of low flow is a particularly notable event and may have coincided with a period of low flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin.     

Co-Partnership in Forest Management: The Gwira-Banso Joint Forest Management Project in Ghana

The involvement of local communities, as well as the private sector and the government in forest management is now an important principle of tropical forestry policy and practice and a major component of most international forestry aid programmes. This paper present an analysis on the Joint Forest Management Project initiated by two timber companies (Ghana Primewood Products Ltd and Dalhoff Larsen & Horneman) in collaboration with local people in Gwira-Banso of Ghana. Conditions required for enhancing responsibility for and commitment to local forest management, and for an effective local participatory process were also analysed. The study began with the premise that incentives and good communication will enhance participation in joint forest management.The assumption was valid and the results from the survey showed that five broad issues prioritised by respondents to be essential for co-partnership in forest management are communication, financial support, tree planting, multiple land use and benefit sharing. The Project enjoys a great deal of support from the local community, but a number of factors make the continued support of local people a challenging task, including questions of immediate livelihood sources and tenure arrangements. Although this participatory forest management has been implemented over a relatively short period, there is evidence that government and private sectors can successfully involve local people in sustainable management of the forests.     

Is The Ca + K + Mg/Al Ratio in the Soil Solution a Predictive Tool for Estimating Forest Damage?

The ratio between (Ca +K +Mg) and Al in nutrientsolution has been suggested as a predictive tool forestimating tree growth disturbance. However, the ratiois unspecific in the sense that it is based on severalelements which are all essential for plant growth;each of these may be growth-limiting. Furthermore,aluminium retards growth at higher concentrations. Itis therefore difficult to give causal and objectivebiological explanations for possible growthdisturbances. The importance of the proportion ofbase-cations to N, at a fixed base-cation/Al ratio, isevaluated with regard to growth of Picea abies.The uptake of elements was found to be selective;nutrients were taken up while most Al remained insolution. Biomass partitioning to the roots increasedafter aluminium addition with low proportions of basecations to nitrogen. We conclude that the low growthrates depend on nutrient limitation in thesetreatments. Low growth rates in the high proportionexperiments may be explained by high internal Alconcentrations. The results strongly suggest thatgrowth rate is not correlated with the ratio in therooting medium and question the validity of usingratios as predictive tools for estimating forestdamage. We suggest that growth limitation of Picea abies in the field may depend on lowproportions of base cations to nitrate. It istherefore important to know the nutritional status ofthe plant material in relation to the growth potentialand environmental limitation to be able to predict andestimate forest damage.     

故障树可视化分析系统

论述了自行研制设计的可视化故障树分析系统的功能及程序结构与设计原理。该系统由故障树生成、故障树分析计算、文件输出和系统管理 4个模块组成 ,可使故障树生成与分析变得非常直观而简便 ,只需用鼠标在屏幕上绘制出故障树图 ,系统就能自动识别并进行定性与定量分析。     

The Future of Scattered Trees in Agricultural Landscapes

Abstract: Mature trees scattered throughout agricultural landscapes are critical habitat for some biota and provide a range of ecosystem services. These trees are declining in intensively managed agricultural landscapes globally. We developed a simulation model to predict the rates at which these trees are declining, identified the key variables that can be manipulated to mitigate this decline, and compared alternative management proposals. We used the initial numbers of trees in the stand, the predicted ages of these trees, their rate of growth, the number of recruits established, the frequency of recruitment, and the rate of tree mortality to simulate the dynamics of scattered trees in agricultural landscapes. We applied this simulation model to case studies from Spain, United States, Australia, and Costa Rica. We predicted that mature trees would be lost from these landscapes in 90–180 years under current management. Existing management recommendations for these landscapes—which focus on increasing recruitment—would not reverse this trend. The loss of scattered mature trees was most sensitive to tree mortality, stand age, number of recruits, and frequency of recruitment. We predicted that perpetuating mature trees in agricultural landscapes at or above existing densities requires a strategy that keeps mortality among established trees below around 0.5% per year, recruits new trees at a rate that is higher than the number of existing trees, and recruits new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life expectancy of trees. Numbers of mature trees in landscapes represented by the case studies will decline before they increase, even if strategies of this type are implemented immediately. This decline will be greater if a management response is delayed.