Linking intra-seasonal variations in climate and tree-ring δC: A functional modelling approach

Stable carbon isotopic composition (δ¹³C) in tree rings is a widely recognized tool for climate reconstruction, and several works suggest that seasonal information can be extracted from intra-ring δ¹³C variations. In this study, we explored the link between climate and intra-seasonal oak ring δ¹³C using a process-based modelling approach. The ISOCASTANEA model was developed to compute the seasonal dynamics of tree-ring δ¹³C for deciduous species from half-hourly climatic data by accounting for photosynthetic discrimination and carbon translocation and allocation at the tree scale and in tree rings.The model was applied from March 2005 to December 2007 in a 150-year-old deciduous oak forest. Canopy photosynthesis and stomatal conductance were calibrated using H₂O and CO₂ fluxes measured by the eddy flux technique, and simulated δ¹³C values were compared to seasonal patterns of total organic matter δ¹³C measured in tree rings for 2006 and 2007 at the same site. With the inclusion of carbon translocation and with regard to ¹³C enrichment of starch compared to soluble sugars, the model can reasonably simulate the intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of tree-ring δ¹³C using the same parameter values for 2006 and 2007. The amplitude of the seasonal carbon isotope pattern in tree rings was influenced by both photosynthetic and post-photosynthetic processes (starch enrichment and reserve use). The δ¹³C variations in the early part of the ring, i.e., mainly in the earlywood, were related mostly to carbohydrate metabolism, although diluted information about environmental conditions during the previous year could also be found. The last part of the ring, consisting mainly of latewood, was found to be a good recorder of current-year environmental conditions, in particular relative humidity, at a fine temporal resolution when the growth rate was high. The sensitivity of the δ¹³C in the early part of the ring to carbohydrate metabolism suggests that intra-ring δ¹³C could be used to explore the relationship between tree decline or mortality and carbohydrate deficiency.     

Application of decision tools to ethical analysis in biodiversity conservation

Achieving ethically responsible decisions is crucial for the success of biodiversity conservation projects. We adapted the ethical matrix, decision tree, and Bateson's cube to assist in the ethical analysis of complex conservation scenarios by structuring these tools so that they can implement the different value dimensions (environmental, social, and animal welfare) involved in conservation ethics. We then applied them to a case study relative to the decision-making process regarding whether or not to continue collecting biomaterial on the oldest of the two remaining northern white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum cottoni), a functionally extinct subspecies of the white rhinoceros. We used the ethical matrix to gather ethical pros and cons and as a starting point for a participatory approach to ethical decision-making. We used decision trees to compare the different options at stake on the basis of a set of ethical desiderata. We used Bateson's cube to establish a threshold of ethical acceptability and model the results of a simple survey. The application of these tools proved to be pivotal in structuring the decision-making process and in helping reach a shared, reasoned, and transparent decision on the best option from an ethical point of view among those available.     

水下连接器试压帽结构动态仿真及密封性分析

为解决水下连接器现有力学模型过于简化，预紧力加载不够合理，密封性能分析结果不够准确的问题，基于ABAQUS有限元模拟提出了新的动态接触分析方法，针对水下连接器试压帽双头螺柱结构，探究了安装和试压工况中该结构形式的密封特性及其与等效拧紧力矩的非线性关联。研究结果表明:在塑性失效设计准则范围内，2种工况下密封环的Mises值最大为399.4 MPa；安装工况下，随预紧力的增加，密封环上、下锥面最大接触应力先增大后略微减小；1 145 Nm螺栓拧紧力矩可完成安装工况，并能在试压工况中保证各部件不被弹开；试压工况下，随试验内压的增加，密封环上锥面最大应力缓慢增加，下锥面最大接触应力几乎不变，最终2值近似相等约为850 MPa，密封宽度合理。     

Exploring constraints and incentives for the adoption of agroforestry practices on degraded cropland in Uzbekistan

Agroforestry is often an economically viable land-use option for the environmental rehabilitation of salinized cropping areas in irrigated drylands, but afforestation initiative at the farm level is subject to various socio-political constraints. We analyzed the factors that affect farmer decisions with respect to the agroforestry adoption using an ex ante approach through Ethnographic Decision Tree Modeling (EDTM). Constraints on agroforestry adoption were identified via a review of legal documents, focus-group discussions, and a farm survey in northwest Uzbekistan. The findings highlighted the importance of farmer perceptions of risk with respect to decision making surrounding the adoption of alternative land uses. The EDTM analysis allowed determining those policy incentives for afforestation that could directly influence the decision-making process of potential participants. In particular, there is a need for increased land-use flexibility, improved land tenure and tree plantation proprietorship security, increased awareness raising and training in agroforestry practices, and greater institutional support.     

Application of human factors evaluation in engineering design and safe operation of dense phase ethylene treaters

Ethylene treaters are widely used in the petrochemical industry to remove impurities from ethylene feedstock imported from pipeline networks or storage caverns. The safety concerns of dense phase ethylene treaters due to the reactive and highly flammable nature of ethylene are well known and studied. Under certain conditions, ethylene may self-polymerize and decompose violently with heat release. Under other conditions, ethylene will auto-refrigerate, generating cold liquids that may cause potential brittle fracture hazards. Therefore, dense phase ethylene treaters present design challenges with the unique combination of high temperature decomposition and cold temperature brittle fracture hazards.Due to these safety concerns, it is important to select the appropriate engineering design options for dense phase ethylene treaters and the associated regeneration facilities. Totally automated treater regeneration systems add complexity and instrument maintenance requirements while manually operated systems rely heavily on operator training and procedures. Unfortunately, little or no information or design guidance is available from published research findings in the literature on the evaluation and risk assessment of current industrial design options and practices for dense phase ethylene treaters.This paper presents a systematic risk assessment method to evaluate the engineering design and safe operation options for dense phase ethylene treaters. The proposed risk assessment method integrates human factors task analysis into the traditional HAZOP, LOPA and fault tree analysis to allow evaluation of automated, manual and hybrid approaches with a goal of selecting and optimizing design options to ensure plant safety. This approach provides a realistic assessment of the operational risk and allows identification of fit-for-purpose risk reduction. Applying this systematic risk assessment approach, a simpler and more cost effective design solution can be justified, thereby avoiding the need for a high integrity protective system.     

地铁屏蔽门安全系统分析及改进

地铁屏蔽门夹人事故时有发生,对其事故树进行分析获得导致事故发生的基本事件重要度排序,结果表明,安全系统与警示装置的不完善是造成事故的主要因素。由此提出对红外探测系统和警示灯系统进行改进以减少地铁屏蔽门事故。     

Risk quantification framework of hydride-based hydrogen storage systems for light-duty vehicles

This study aims to develop a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework for on-board hydrogen storage systems in light-duty fuel cell vehicles, with focus on hazards from potential vehicular collision affecting hydride-based hydrogen storage vessels. Sodium aluminum hydride (NaAlH₄) has been selected as a representative reversible hydride for hydrogen storage. Functionality of QRA framework is demonstrated by presenting a case study of a postulated vehicle collision (VC) involving the onboard hydrogen storage system. An event tree (ET) model is developed for VC as the accident initiating event. For illustrative purposes, a detailed FT model is developed for hydride dust cloud explosion as part of the accident progress. Phenomenologically-driven ET branch probabilities are estimated based on an experimental program performed for this purpose. Safety-critical basic events (BE) in the FT model are determined using conventional risk importance measures. The Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique has been employed to propagate the aleatory (i.e., stochastic) and epistemic (i.e., phenomenological) uncertainties associated with the probabilistic ET and FT models. Extrapolation of the proposed QRA framework and its core risk-informed insights to other candidate on-board reversible and off-board regenerable hydrogen storage systems could provide better understanding of risk consequences and mitigation options associated with employing this hydrogen-based technology in the transportation sector.