模糊故障树分析及其应用研究

基于某些实际情况下系统故障发生概率具有模糊性和不确定性的特点 ,笔者将模糊集理论引入故障树分析并针对自动化立体仓库的故障特征 ,对立体仓库各个环节发生故障时所遇到的各种模糊信息进行了科学的、定量的处理。实例证明 ,该方法是行之有效的 ;它能解决传统故障树分析不能处理同时存在随机不确定性和模糊不确定性的故障事件的问题     

长白山不同生态系统地下部分生物量及地下C贮量的调查

论文在收集已有资料的基础上,补充调查了长白山自然保护区中沿不同海拔高度形成的不同森林生态系统的细根生物量和一些森林类型的根系总生物量,并且对自然环境因子对根系生物量的影响进行了相关分析。研究表明,由高海拔到低海拔(岳桦林、苔藓岳桦暗针叶林、暗针叶林过渡带、苔藓红松暗针叶林、红松针阔混交林)树木细根(<2mm)生物量分别是458.92gm^-2、537.42gm^-2、390.35gm^-2、397.25gm^-2和660.21gm^-2;根系总生物量分别是2578.00gm^-2、2794.00gm^-2、2680.00gm^-2、3459.25gm^-2和5155.00gm^-2。分别对细根生物量和根系总生物量与降水量和活动积温之间进行相关性分析时,发现细根生物量与不同海拔高度的活动积温和降水量没有明显的相关性;而根系生物量与这些因子存在着指数相关关系。该研究同时对不同海拔高度根系中的C、N含量和土壤中有机质的含量进行了分析和测定。结合已有的倒木和凋落物的资料,估算了长白山自然保护区中沿不同海拔高度形成的不同森林生态系统地下C的贮量。在长白山自然保护区内,由高海拔到低海拔,林地C贮量分别是15493.88gm^-2、21005.74gm^-2、19819.24gm^-2、14232.51gm^-2和7344.02gm^-2。     

Nest selection by snow petrels Pagodroma nivea in East Antarctica: Validating predictive habitat selection models at the continental scale

Little is known on the factors controlling distribution and abundance of snow petrels in Antarctica. Studying habitat selection through modeling may provide useful information on the relationships between this species and its environment, especially relevant in a climate change context, where habitat availability may change. Validating the predictive capability of habitat selection models with independent data is a vital step in assessing the performance of such models and their potential for predicting species’ distribution in poorly documented areas.From the results of ground surveys conducted in the Casey region (2002–2003, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica), habitat selection models based on a dataset of 4000 nests were created to predict the nesting distribution of snow petrels as a function of topography and substrate. In this study, the Casey models were tested at Mawson, 3800 km away from Casey. The location and characteristics of approximately 7700 snow petrel nests were collected during ground surveys (Summer 2004–2005). Using GIS, predictive maps of nest distribution were produced for the Mawson region with the models derived from the Casey datasets and predictions were compared to the observed data. Models performance was assessed using classification matrixes and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Overall correct classification rates for the Casey models varied from 57% to 90%. However, two geomorphologically different sub-regions (coastal islands and inland mountains) were clearly distinguished in terms of habitat selection by Casey model predictions but also by the specific variations in coefficients of terms in new models, derived from the Mawson data sets. Observed variations in the snow petrel aggregations were found to be related to local habitat availability.We discuss the applicability of various types of models (GLM, CT) and investigate the effect of scale on the prediction of snow petrel habitats. While the Casey models created with data collected at the nest scale did not perform well at Mawson due to regional variations in nest micro-characteristics, the predictive performance of models created with data compiled at a coarser scale (habitat units) was satisfactory. Substrate type was the most robust predictor of nest presence between Casey and Mawson. This study demonstrate that it is possible to predict at the large scale the presence of snow petrel nests based on simple predictors such as topography and substrate, which can be obtained from aerial photography. Such methodologies have valuable applications in the management and conservation of this top predator and associated resources and may be applied to other Antarctic, Sub-Antarctic and lower latitudes species and in a variety of habitats.     

The Paradox of Forest Fragmentation Genetics

Abstract:  Theory predicts widespread loss of genetic diversity from drift and inbreeding in trees subjected to habitat fragmentation, yet empirical support of this theory is scarce. We argue that population genetics theory may be misapplied in light of ecological realities that, when recognized, require scrutiny of underlying evolutionary assumptions. One ecological reality is that fragment boundaries often do not represent boundaries for mating populations of trees that benefit from long-distance pollination, sometimes abetted by long-distance seed dispersal. Where fragments do not delineate populations, genetic theory of small populations does not apply. Even in spatially isolated populations, where genetic theory may eventually apply, evolutionary arguments assume that samples from fragmented populations represent trees that have had sufficient time to experience drift, inbreeding, and ultimately inbreeding depression, an unwarranted assumption where stands in fragments are living relicts of largely unrelated predisturbance populations. Genetic degradation may not be as important as ecological degradation for many decades following habitat fragmentation.     

Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long‐term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex‐situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species’ persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.     

弹上设备湿热试验典型失效机理分析及建议

目的 分析影响弹上设备湿热试验典型外观不合格的原因及失效机理,给出弹上设备适应湿热大气的相关建议.方法 给出某型号湿热鉴定试验过程中,弹上设备出现的三种典型外观不合格现象——漆层起泡、螺钉锈蚀和电连接器锈蚀.通过建立与漆层起泡、螺钉锈蚀和电连接器锈蚀不合格现象相对应的故障树,分析3种典型外观不合格的失效原因,并得到相应的失效机理.结果 总结了弹上设备湿热试验后外观发生不合格的原因,并从设计、选材、介质隔离角度给出了弹上设备适应湿热大气的相关建议.结论 为提高弹上设备耐湿热环境的能力,进而提高装备的贮存可靠性,使其能够从贮存状态直接转入能使用状态,从而提高其贮存可靠性、战备完好性和系统效能提供了指导.     

基于贝叶斯网络的社区配电网系统动态风险评估

社区配电网系统的安全分析和动态风险评估是配电网系统安全运行的关键环节。传统的可靠性指标无法反映社区配电网系统中物理元器件的状态和短路故障事件等本质安全问题对风险评估的影响。针对现有风险评估方法的局限性,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的社区配电网系统安全分析与动态风险评估框架。首先,在标准可靠性指标的基础上,创新性地将社区配电网系统中物理元器件的故障率和短路故障事件引入到风险评估中,提出一种新的社区配电网停电风险评估指标体系,该评估指标体系综合考虑了社区配电网的可靠性指标和本质安全特性,能够全面反映社区配电网系统的动态风险;其次,提出一种基于故障树-贝叶斯网络的社区配电网系统动态风险评估方法;最后,以一个实际社区的配电网系统为案例,验证了该动态风险评估框架的可行性和有效性。案例分析结果表明:所提出的框架能够充分评估社区配电网系统的停电风险,并可以给出合理的安全措施,以有效降低社区配电网系统的动态风险。     

地形、树种和土壤属性对喀斯特山区土壤胞外酶活性的影响

土壤胞外酶在生态系统生物地球化学循环过程中扮演着重要角色,然而关于土壤胞外酶活性的主控因子研究还不够深入,特别是在偏碱性的钙质土壤区域相关研究尤其缺乏.本研究以典型喀斯特山区(木论国家级自然保护区)的林地为研究对象,采集不同地形条件(不同坡位和坡向)、不同树种(厚壳桂和伞花木)下的表层土壤(0~15 cm),测定了与碳、氮、磷循环相关的6种水解酶的活性及相关土壤理化性质.研究运用方差分解,并结合多响应置换过程以及冗余分析技术分析了地形、树种和土壤理化性质对土壤酶活性的影响.结果表明,坡位对土壤酶活性有显著影响.树种和坡向对土壤酶活性的影响不显著.方差分解结果表明,地形、树种和土壤理化性质共同解释了土壤酶活性变化的55.3%,其中土壤因子是影响酶活性改变的主要因子,解释了44.2%的变异.而冗余分析的结果进一步表明在土壤因子中,pH、总氮和无机氮是影响土壤酶活性变化的主要指标.研究首次量化了喀斯特地区小尺度内地形、树种及土壤理化性质对土壤酶活性变化的影响.研究也说明了在喀斯特山区小尺度内土壤酶活性的变化可由土壤理化性质来表征.     

基于贝叶斯网络的尾流事故机理分析

针对事故树分析法的局限性,在尾流事故树的基础上,建立贝叶斯网络(BN)。运用推理运算对BN进行定量分析,得出:空中交通密度太大、空中交通管制(ATC)间隔判断错误和短期冲突告警(STCA)被忽略是事故的关键致因。将针对致因提出的改进措施引入到BN中,评价相关措施的有效性。应用BN进行尾流事故的机理分析,能够以比逻辑门更好的形式表达变量间的不确定性关系,从而更加方便地找到导致事故发生的关键因素。     

基于人差错纠正能力的人因可靠性模型研究

根据人-机系统中人的操作行为具有时序性和差错可纠正性的特点,结合船舶舱室行为形成主因子,开展船舶舱室人因可靠性研究。以人因失误的时序性和差错纠正参数为基础,建立人-机系统中操作者行为模式和人因失误事件树模型。通过对人的差错纠正能力的分析,开展人因可靠性量化模型纠正理论研究。最后,以船舶舱室操作台的监控任务人因可靠性为例进行量化计算,定量评估操作人员执行任务的可靠度。