用树叶、树皮含硫量监测包头市大气SO2污染的探讨

植物与周围环境不断进行着气体交换,当外界大气环境发生变化时,就会对植物产生影响,这种影响会在植物体有关部位以各种形式反映出来.研究表明,植物中含硫量与大气SO2浓度呈现出密切相关性,因此,可以通过植物含硫量来反映大气SO2的污染状况.     

山东省高速公路主要绿化树木叶片硫、铅含量分析

汽车尾气会给高速公路路域环境带来一定程度的硫(S)、铅(Pb)污染,而绿化树木可通过吸收作用从而有效降低这些污染物在空气中的含量,目前这方面的研究较少。对山东省高速公路路侧主要绿化树木叶片S、P质量分数的研究表明,I107杨树(Populus Linn.)叶片S、Pb质量分数与高速公路车流量呈显著正相关。I107杨树叶片S、Pb质量分数对高速公路路域环境污染具有一定指示作用,不同路段杨树叶片的S、Pb质量分数存在明显差异,济青高速公路路侧杨树叶片的S、Pb质量分数最高,其次是京沪高速,最低的是日东高速。I107杨和龙柏对S污染物的吸收能力较强,其次是垂柳(Salix babylonica L.),较差的是紫叶李(Prunus cerasifera cv.Pissardii.)、大叶女贞(Ligustrum lucidumAit)和雪松(Cedrus deodara(Roxb.)Loud);而I107杨和紫叶李对Pb的吸收能力较强。     

Relation Between Individual Tree Mortality and Tree Characteristics in a Polluted and Non-Polluted Environmentx

Data on individual tree mortality in relatively healthy (Berezinskiy biosphere reserve) and damaged (surroundings of the mineral fertilizer plant ‘Achema’) even-aged Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands are presented. Tree size and competition intensity were found to be the most significant predictors of individual tree mortality in all age groups of the relatively healthy Scots pine stands, however, an essential reduction in the closeness of relations between the tree mortality rate and these variables was determined with the aging of stands. An exponential decrease in tree mortality probability with an increase of tree size is characteristic for trees suffering different competition intensity, however, this decrease becomes much more pronounced as the competition pressure increases. The relations of different tree and stand variables with tree mortality probability have been found to become much weaker in the polluted environment. An exponential increase in tree mortality probability with an increase of crown defoliation was characteristic of damaged Scots pine stands, however, the rate of the increase was different in different age and diameter classes. The impact of crown defoliation on tree mortality rate increased with the aging of stands. At the same defoliation level, individual tree mortality probability was much higher for smaller suppressed trees, however, a relative increase in tree mortality probability along with an increase of crown defoliation was more pronounced for dominant trees. Conclusion: a higher mortality of damaged (defoliated) trees should be considered while assessing losses in forest productivity in a polluted environment.     

Ice Storm Damage and Early Recovery in an Old-Growth Forest

We quantified the damage causedby a major ice storm to individual trees in two1-ha permanent plots located at Mont St. Hilairein southwestern Québec, Canada. The storm, whichoccurred in January 1998, is the worst on recordin eastern North America; glaze ice on the orderof 80–100 mm accumulated at our study site. Allbut 3% of the trees (DBH 10 cm) lost at leastsome crown branches, and 35% lost more than halftheir crown. Damage to trees increased in the order: Tsuga canadensis, Betula alleghaniensis, Ostrya virginiana, Acer saccharum, Fagus grandifolia, Quercus rubra, Betula papyrifera, Acer rubrum, Tilia americana, and Fraxinus americana. Only 22% of the saplings and small trees (4 cm < DBH < 10 cm)escaped being broken or pinned to the ground byfalling material. Levels of damage generally weregreater in an exposed ridge top forest than in acove protected from wind. By August 1999 only53% of the trees had new shoots developing fromthe trunk or broken branches; among the moredominant canopy trees, Fagus grandifoliahad the least sprouting and Acer saccharumand Quercus rubra the most. We anticipateand will monitor both significant turnover in thetree community and some shift in composition ofthe canopy dominants.     

基于逻辑树和贝叶斯网络的海洋平台火灾概率分析

火灾概率分析是海洋平台火灾定量风险评估的重要组成部分,考虑到传统事故树和事件树方法存在一定的局限性,提出了基于逻辑树和贝叶斯网络的火灾概率分析模型。首先采用数理统计方法对墨西哥湾地区2 837起火灾事故进行统计分析,依据事故情况构建逻辑树,然后将逻辑树转化为贝叶斯网络,根据历史数据确定贝叶斯网络各节点的先验概率和条件概率。结果表明:海洋平台火灾事故是设备、人因和组织管理多因素耦合作用的结果;基于贝叶斯网络模型得到海洋平台火灾概率约为1.0×10~(-5),为海洋平台火灾定量风险评估提供了基础数据;由贝叶斯网络模型分析得出,人因操作失误与缺乏作业安全分析的后验概率分别达到0.471和0.119,表明人因组织因素对海洋平台火灾事故具有重要影响。     

Physics of failure analysis of power section assembly for positive displacement motor

Power section assembly is the core part of positive displacement motor (PDM), and its mechanical behavior and service life determine the drilling efficiency and cycle. In this paper, fault tree of power section assembly was established, failure reasons were analyzed and improvement measures were put forward. Finite element models of conventional lining and uniform wall thickness lining of 5/6 PDM were established, and the mechanical behaviors were investigated. Working parameters such as drilling fluid pressure, rubber hardness, downhole temperature and pressure difference were discussed. The results show that wear and rust are the main failure modes of the rotor. Failure modes of rubber lining are wear, tear, rupture, peeling off, thermal failure and fatigue failure. Under the action of drilling fluid pressure, the maximum effective stress of rubber lining appears in the bottom of arc, and the minimum stress appears at the top of arc. But deformation distribution is opposite to the effective stress. Deformation of uniform wall thickness lining is more uniform. Effective stress of the lining increases with the increasing of drilling fluid pressure and rubber hardness, but it decreases with the downhole temperature increases. Deformation of the lining increases with the drilling fluid pressure increases, but it decreases with the increasing of rubber hardness and downhole temperature. Effective stress and deformation distribution of rubber lining are more uneven with the pressure difference increases. High stress area lies between the two smallest chambers.     

高峰水库下采空区重大安全风险评估及治理对策

湖南柿竹园多金属矿老蛇形坪矿区闭坑后被高峰水库淹没,周边民采矿点超深越界偷采井下保水矿柱,形成了高峰水库下积水采空区透水隐患。为了保证临近矿区安全开采,消除采空区透水隐患,在三维流固耦合有限差分数值模拟的基础上,对53#关键采空区和18m隔水矿柱的稳定性进行了分析,采用事故树法排查了可能发生出突水事故的104种基本事件,分析了高峰水库重大安全隐患的风险等级,并提出了隐患治理对策,可为水下开采的矿山突水安全评估及治理提供参考。     

天然气管道水平定向钻穿越事故及其后果分析

水平定向钻穿越施工以其导向准确、施工周期短、综合成本低等众多优点,越来越多地被应用于天然气管道工程。本文运用故障树分析方法,对天然气管道水平定向钻穿越施工中存在的导向孔质量不合格、预扩孔失败、管道回拖失败、地面塌陷、环境污染、人员伤亡等事故及其后果进行了识别和分析,辨识出天然气管道水平定向钻穿越事故及其后果的二十一个主要影响因素,把其归纳为施工事故和管理事故两大类,并提出相应控制措施将定向钻穿越事故及其后果降低至最低水平,在天然气管道水平定向钻穿越的安全施工方面具有重要的工程应用价值和现实意义。     

Forecasting the Risk of Brown Tree Snake Dispersal from Guam: a Mixed Transport-Establishment Model

Abstract:  The brown tree snake ( Boiga irregularis ) is a devastating invader that has ecologically and economically affected Guam and is poised to disperse further. Interdiction efforts are being conducted on Guam and some of the potential receiving sites, but no tools exist for evaluating the potential for snake incursion; thus, the amount of effort that should be invested in protecting particular sites is unknown. We devised a model that predicts the relative risk of establishment of the brown tree snake (BTS) at a given site. To calculate overall risk, we incorporated in the model information on the likelihood of an organism entering the transportation system, avoiding detection, surviving to arrive at another location, and establishing at the receiving end. On the basis of documented rates of snake arrival at receiving sites, the model produced realistic predictions of invasion risk. Model outputs can thus be used to prioritize interdiction efforts to focus on especially vulnerable receiving locations. We provide examples of the utility of the model in evaluating the impacts of changes in transportation parameters. Finally, the model can be used to evaluate the impacts that BTS establishment at an additional site and that creation of a new source of snakes would have. The use of qualitative inputs allows the model to be adapted by substituting data on other invasive species or transportation systems.     

Distribution of Cd,Ck, Pb and Zn in Soil and Vegetation Compartments in Stands of Five Boreal Tree Species in N.E. Sweden

Concentrations and total quantity of cadmium (Cd), cupper (Cu),lead (Pb) and zink (Zn) were determined in biomass and soil compartments in a replicated tree species experiment with 27-yr-old stands growing on former farmland in N.E. Sweden. Sequentialextractions of soil samples were performed in order to estimate the exchangeable and an organically bound fraction of each element. The tree species included were Picea abies (L.)H. Karst., Pinus sylvestris L., Pinus contorta Dougl., Larix sibirica Ledeb., and Betula pendula Roth.Tree species influenced the rate of removal of Cu, Pb and Zn incase of stemwood harvesting, and of Cd, Cu and Zn in the case ofwhole-tree harvesting. B. pendula and P. abies had higher quantities and average concentrations of Zn in the biomass. For all species, >50% of the Zn in the stems was found in the bark. P. abies and L. sibirica had higher quantities of Cu in the biomass than the other species.P. abies and P. contorta had high quantities of Cd inthe biomass in relation to the other species. Branches and stembark contained high concentrations of Cd and Pb in relation to foliage and stemwood. Dead branches had especially high concentrations of Pb. The high accumulation rate of Zn in thebiomass of B. pendula was related to a low exchangeable amount of Zn in the A horizon. In the superficial centimeters ofthe A horizon, a depletion similar to that found for Zn was detected for Cu, whereas for Cd and Pb, no correlations were found between quantities of elements in the trees and element pools in the soil.