基于事故树的三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件诱因分析

三峡库区蓄水后对长江水体自净能力的极大削弱,沿江聚集的各类生产、生活活动对长江水质的多渠道污染极易引发库区各类水体污染公共安全事件。结合对库区水体污染公共安全事件多维度诱发因素的调研结果,运用事故树的分析方法对三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件的逐级诱发过程进行分析。研究表明：存在13条诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件的路径以及3条防治水体污染公共安全事件的路径;在不考虑诱因发生概率的情况下,排污因素是诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件最重要、最根本的因素,促成库区水体自净能力下降的回水区变长,水流紊动减弱和水位抬升三方面因素是次重要的诱发因素。只有对不同的诱因施行不同的监测和控制策略,才能对库区水体污染公共安全事件开展有效预警、预控.     

FTA在城市控制爆破工程事故中的运用

城市控制爆破工程采用电雷管网路起爆,极易发生爆破事故.运用FTA方法,编制了爆破事故树,并进行了定性分析.结合工程实际,提出了爆破事故的具体预防措施,更依法采取了爆破安全管理措施.     

简易垃圾填埋场的安全分析

以福建省晋江市铜锣山垃圾填埋场为例,采用系统的安全分析方法--事故树分析法对该简易垃圾填埋场进行安全分析,发现铜锣山垃圾填埋场存在发生火灾、爆炸、垃圾堆体崩塌及因发生火灾或爆炸事故对邻近建筑物造成破坏的可能性,确定了影响该垃圾填埋场安全的主要因素,提出了有效的安全防范措施.     

Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries1

Gray, Stephen T., Jeffrey J. Lukas, and Connie A. Woodhouse, 2011. Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):702‐712. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00535.x Abstract: Drought, climate change, and shifting consumptive use are prompting a widespread reassessment of water availability in the Upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present millennial‐length records of water year (October‐September) streamflow for key Upper Colorado tributaries: the White, Yampa, and Little Snake Rivers. Based on tree rings, these records represent the first paleohydrological reconstructions from these subbasins to overlap with a series of Medieval droughts (∼ad 800 to 1300). The reconstructions show marked interannual variability imbedded in nonstationary behavior over decadal to multidecadal time scales. These reconstructions suggest that, even in a millennial context, gaged flows from a handful of years (e.g., 1977 and 2002) were extremely dry. However, droughts of much greater duration and magnitude than any in the instrumental record were regular features prior to 1900. Likewise these reconstructions point to the unusual wetness of the gage period, and the potential for recent observations to paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water supplies. The future of the Upper Colorado River will be determined by a combination of inherent hydroclimatic variability and a broad range of human‐induced changes. It is then essential that regional water managers, water users, and policy makers alike consider a broader range of hydroclimatic scenarios than is offered by the gage record alone.     

Effects of an Exotic Plant Invasion on Native Understory Plants in a Tropical Dry Forest

Abstract: The dry forests of southern India, which are endangered tropical ecosystems and among the world's most important tiger (Panthera tigris) habitats, are extensively invaded by exotic plants. Yet, experimental studies exploring the impacts of these invasions on native plants in these forests are scarce. Consequently, little is known about associated implications for the long‐term conservation of tigers and other biodiversity in these habitats. I studied the impacts of the exotic plant Lantana camara on understory vegetation in a dry‐forest tiger habitat in southern India. I compared the richness, composition, and abundance of tree seedlings, herbs, and shrubs and the abundance of grass among plots in which Lantana was cleared or left standing. These plots were distributed across two blocks—livestock free and livestock grazed. Removal of Lantana had an immediate positive effect on herb–shrub richness in the livestock‐free block, but had no effect on that of tree seedlings in either livestock block. Tree‐seedling and herb–shrub composition differed significantly between Lantana treatment and livestock block, and Lantana removal significantly decreased survival of tree seedlings. Nevertheless, the absence of trees, in any stage between seedling and adult, indicates that Lantana may stall tree regeneration. Lantana removal decreased the abundance of all understory strata, probably because forage plants beneath Lantana are less accessible to herbivores, and plants in Lantana‐free open plots experienced greater herbivory. Reduced access to forage in invaded habitats could negatively affect ungulate populations and ultimately compromise the ability of these forests to sustain prey‐dependent large carnivores. Additional research focused on understanding and mitigating threats posed by exotic plants may be crucial to the long‐term protection of these forests as viable tiger habitats.     

Genetic Bottlenecks Driven by Population Disconnection

Abstract: Connectivity among populations plays a crucial role in maintaining genetic variation at a local scale, especially in small populations affected strongly by genetic drift. The negative consequences of population disconnection on allelic richness and gene diversity (heterozygosity) are well recognized and empirically established. It is not well recognized, however, that a sudden drop in local effective population size induced by such disconnection produces a temporary disequilibrium in allelic frequency distributions that is akin to the genetic signature of a demographic bottleneck. To document this effect, we used individual‐based simulations and empirical data on allelic richness and gene diversity in six pairs of isolated versus well‐connected (core) populations of European tree frogs. In our simulations, population disconnection depressed allelic richness more than heterozygosity and thus resulted in a temporary excess in gene diversity relative to mutation drift equilibrium (i.e., signature of a genetic bottleneck). We observed a similar excess in gene diversity in isolated populations of tree frogs. Our results show that population disconnection can create a genetic bottleneck in the absence of demographic collapse.     

Canopy Seed Banks as Time Capsules of Biodiversity in Pasture-Remnant Tree Crowns

Abstract: Tropical pastures present multiple barriers to tree regeneration and restoration. Relict trees serve as “regeneration foci” because they ameliorate the soil microclimate and serve as safe spots for dispersers. Here, we describe another mechanism by which remnant trees may facilitate pasture regeneration: the presence of seed banks in the canopy soil that accumulates from decomposing epiphytes within the crowns of mature remnant trees in tropical cloud forest pastures. We compared seed banks of canopy soils (histosols derived from fallen leaves, fruits, flower, and twigs of host trees and epiphytes, dead bryophytes, bark, detritus, dead animals, and microorganisms, and dust that accumulate on trunks and the upper surfaces of large branches) in pastures, canopy soils in primary forest trees, and soil on the forest floor in Monteverde, Costa Rica. There were 5211 epiphytic and terrestrial plant seeds in the three habitats. All habitats were dominated by seeds in a relatively small number of plant families, most of which were primarily woody, animal pollinated, and animal dispersed. The density of seeds on the forest floor was greater than seed density in either pasture‐canopy or forest‐canopy soils; the latter two did not differ. Eight species in 44 families and 61 genera from all of the habitats were tallied. There were 37 species in the pasture‐canopy soil, 33 in the forest‐canopy soil, and 57 on the forest floor. Eleven species were common to all habitats. The mean species richness in the pasture canopy was significantly higher than the forest canopy (F =83.38; p < 0.02). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination revealed that the communities were distinct. Greenhouse experiments verified that many of these seeds were viable, with 29 taxa germinating (23 taxa in pruned mats [mimic of exposed conditions] and 16 taxa in control mats [intact conditions]) within 2 months of observation. Nearly half the species that germinated were characteristic of primary forests (primary forest samples, 19%; pasture samples, 29%). This supports the idea that canopy seed banks of pasture trees can function as time capsules by providing propagules that are removed in both space and time from the primary forest. Their presence may enhance the ability of pastures to regenerate more quickly, reinforcing the importance of trees in agricultural settings.     

Fault-dynamic modelling of a phthalic anhydride reactor

A new methodology, fault-dynamic modelling, has been developed for analysis of potentially hazardous situations in the process industries. Traditional fault-tree analysis is used to determine the combinations of component failure that can lead to a particular process upset condition. Realistic dynamic modelling is then used to calculate the time available for corrective action once the upset has started. The method is applied to a phthalic anhydride reactor. The results of the analysis identify three process upsets that can lead to catastrophic failure in 2–5 min if left uncorrected. Other process upsets lead to safe conditions.     

隧洞施工通风系统事故树分析

在采矿、铁路、公路及水利水电工程中，常常采用长距离隧洞或隧道来穿越高山。而隧洞的施工以其施工技术复杂、难度大、风险高，经常成为控制工程工期的主要环节，隧洞施工中的通风换气系统，关系到施工能否顺利进行和施工作业人员的人身安全，根据隧洞施工通风系统的运行特点，采用安全系统分析中的事故树（FTA）方法，对隧洞施工中通风系统的安全性进行定性分析，找出影响通风安全的主要因素，并提出了通风安全管理对策，可以保证施工作业的顺利进行和人身安全，提高整个施工作业的安全度。     

毕节地区各土类水土保持树种的Fuzzy评价

根据毕节地区16个主要造林树种的生态生物学特性,结合本区气候和土壤生态条件,运用 Fuzzy 二级评价模型,对各土类水土保持树种的适宜程度进行了综合评价。