A TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Indices of annual diameter growth of trees were used to reconstruct drought in southern California back to A.D. 1700. A regional Palmer Drought Index served as predictand and tree-ring indices from eight sites as predictors in multiple linear regression analyses that yielded the prediction (reconstruction) equations. The regression explained 69 percent of the variance in Palmer Index in the period of calibration. The long-term reconstruction indicated that drought was rare in the first half of the current century relative to other discrete 50-year periods, and that based on evidence to date the last half of the 20th century may well turn out to be the most drought prone since A.D. 1700 in southern California.     

用事故树分析法进行炼厂油罐爆炸事故的环境风险评价

论述了风险、风险评价、环境风险评价的概念及其主要内容，说明利用事故树分析法进行工程环境风险评价的程序和方法。并运用这种方法对某炼厂油罐爆炸事故进行了大气环境风险评价。     

Delivering on the Promise of Agroforestry

Agroforestry – the traditional practice of growing trees on farms for the benefit of the farm family and for the environment – was brought from the realm of indigenous knowledge into the forefront of agricultural research less than two decades ago. It was promoted widely as a sustainability-enhancing practice that combines the best attributes of forestry and agriculture. Based on principles of natural resource management and process-oriented research, agroforestry is now recognized as an applied science, that is instrumental in assuring food security, reducing poverty and enhancing ecosystem resilience at the scale of thousands of smallholder farmers in the tropics.Trees on farms provide both products and services: they yield food, fuelwood, fodder, timber and medicines, which farm families can use at home or take to market to bring in much-needed cash; they replenish organic matter and nutrient levels in soils and they help control erosion and conserve water. The International Centre for Research in Agroforestry, and its partners, are working to integrate the functions of trees with policy and institutional improvements that aim at facilitating wide-scale adoption by farmers.Two examples described in this paper are replenishing soil fertility in sub-Saharan Africa using short-term improved tree and shrub fallows and the results of agroforestry research to support significant land tenure policy in southeast Asia.Although just one option in sustainable land-use, science-based agroforestry has the potential to produce economically, socially and environmentally sound results for the billions of people who depend on this ancient practice and modern science.     

建筑物消防系统可靠性分析

为评估建筑物消防系统的可靠性,首先将系统分为探测报警系统和灭火系统等部分,再用事件树法分析事故发生时消防系统不同部分的反应情况.通过贝叶斯理论及历史统计数据得到系统失效率的不确定性概率分布,建立消防系统可靠性随时间变化的数学模型; 用蒙特卡罗方法模拟求得系统可靠性的时间函数并对模型的不确定性参数进行敏感性分析.该方法将统计数据与经验公式、理论方法相结合,并利用蒙特卡罗方法处理模型中的不确定性,不仅能够有效估计消防系统的可靠性,还可对其他类似系统的可靠性进行分析,并通过敏感性分析为进一步减少估计的不确定性提出合理建议.     

事故二叉树计算机算法

根据《数据结构》中的二叉树算法,结合事故树算法的特点,提出事故二叉树算法。该算法是对事故树求解算法的有益补充和发展,具有广阔的应用前景和现实意义     

灰关联分析在故障树诊断中的应用

介绍一种灰色诊断法。在故障诊断模式识别中,运用灰关联分析,依据故障树的底事件重要度,通过关联度计算及排序,对故障树分析中,各种故障模式发生的可能性大小作出了准确的判断,从而为处理事故的先后、缓急提供了依据。     

液化气运输过程中的危险分析

应用各种爆炸后果估计模型对液化气运输过程中的爆炸后果进行了评估，并用ETA分析方法对存在的危险进行了分析，指出了控制措施。     

事故树分析系统设计与老空区透水分析

通过计算机编程,开发了事故树分析系统,可以方便、准确地进行事故树分析计算,规范地绘制事故树图形,提高了事故分析的速度和质量;利用该系统,对老空区积水透水事故进行事故树分析,并根据分析结果,提出了该类透水事故的预防方案。     

高阶段尾砂胶结充填体力学研究与博弈树配比优化

在实验室试验了不同配比尾砂胶结试块强度,在充填采场取样测试了采场充填体强度.结果表明,如果以实验室试验的力学参数为充填配比设计依据,充填体最小设计安全系数为1.6～1.8比较合理.分析高阶段充填体受力,推导了分层充填力学计算公式及安全系数计算方法;根据充填工艺,确定最小充填高度,沿采场高度方向划分配比优化单元,建立了高阶段充填体配比优化设计模型;采用博弈树分析方法,解决了高阶段充填体配比优化问题,并对安庆铜矿5号矿房配比进行了优化.结果显示:与经验设计方法相比,采用本文方法优化充填配比,不仅使高阶段充填体内安全系数分布更趋合理,而且降低了水泥消耗.     

环氧乙烷生产装置的安全分析与评价

综合运用道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数评价法,事故树分析以及事件树分析对环氧乙烷生产装置进行安全评价,定量地得出装置的危险程度,定性地分析了各危险因素的大小以及系统中各元件的故障率对事故发生概率的影响程度,并提出了改进措施.结果表明,该装置的危险程度很大,必须加强安全生产管理,采取有效措施控制氧气的浓度,从而降低危险性等级,保证生产安全.