基于CREAM和贝叶斯网络的空管人误概率预测方法

针对研究管制人因可靠性时存在的模糊性和片面性问题,采用认知可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）中的扩展预测法,计算10项管制通用任务的人误概率;在此基础上,以管制行为形成因子作为根节点构建贝叶斯网络,建立其与情景控制模式的不确定关系模型,对管制员在多任务中的人误概率进行预测。研究结果表明:在由相同评判者给出行为形成因子影响效应的前提下,由CREAM扩展预测法和构建贝叶斯网络的方法预测得到的多数任务的人误概率差异较大,从方法的客观性、合理性和适用性角度分析,贝叶斯网络在研究该问题时更具优势。     

畜禽环境中抗生素的去除及其风险评估

抗生素作为饲料添加剂广泛应用于畜禽养殖业,造成养殖环境抗生素大量蓄积,尤其是在畜禽粪便中,长期的积累不仅污染养殖场内土壤环境,残留的抗生素还会随畜禽粪便进入周边水体及农田环境,威胁农作物及人体健康。目前,国内相关研究主要集中在抗生素的降解工艺及降解规律方面,而对其去除效率的影响因素及风险评价研究相对较少。笔者综述了国内外抗生素的降解转化及去除方式等的研究进展,并概述了抗生素在畜禽环境中的生态风险评估的研究现状,为抗生素的高效去除、风险预估及畜禽粪便资源化安全利用提供理论基础和技术支撑。     

Metal Fractionation Studies in Surfacial and Core Sediments in the Achankovil River Basin in India

The Fractionation of Fe, Zn, Cu, Pb, Mn and Cd in the sediments of the Achankovil River, Western Ghats, India using a sequential extraction method was carried out to understand the metal availability in the basin for biotic and abiotic activities. Spatial distribution of heavy metals has been studied. Sediment grain size has significant control over the heavy metal distribution. The fluctuations in their concentration partly depend upon the lithology of the river basin and partly the anthropogenic activities. The sediments are dominated by sand and are moderately to strongly positively skewed and are very leptokurtotic in nature. The quartzite and feldspars are abundant minerals along with significant amount of mica with low clay content. The core sediments show increasing trend of heavy metal concentration with depth due to the recent addition of anthropogenic sources and post-diagenic activities. Significant amount of Cd (18%) was found in carbonate fraction, which may pose environmental problems due to its toxic nature. Small concentrations of metals, except Cd and Cu, are in exchangeable fraction, which indicate low bio-availability. Enrichment Factor (EF) for individual metals shows the contribution from terrregious and in part from anthropogenic sources. Selective Sequential Extraction (SSE) study shows the variation in specific metal distribution pattern, their distribution in different phases and their bio-availability. Maximum amount of the metals were bound to the non-residual fractions (mainly Fe-oxides). Overall, bio-availability of these micronutrients from sediments seems to be very less. Non-residual phase is the most important phase for majority of heavy metals studied. Among the non-residual fraction, maximum amount of the heavy metals bound to Fe-oxides. The study high lights the need for in-depth study of heavy metals distribution and fractionation in the smaller river basins to get precise information on the behavior and transport of heavy metals in the fluvial environment and their contribution to the world ocean.     

Temperature Effect on Migration of Zn and Cd Through Natural Clay

To investigate the effect of temperature on effective diffusion coefficients and retardation factors for Zn and Cd, combined diffusion and sequential extraction analyses were conducted at 15 ^˚C and 55 ^˚C. The effective diffusion coefficients of the metals increased up to ten times according to the increased temperature. On the other hand, the effect of temperature on the retardation factor depended on the retention mechanisms of the metals. The distribution coefficient for Zn, which was mainly partitioned in the carbonate phase, increased up to two times with the increase in temperature. On the other hand, the distribution coefficient for Cd, which was mainly partitioned in the exchangeable phase, was hardly affected by the temperature change. Results of combined diffusion and sequential extraction analysis showed that the effect of temperature on the heavy metals’ (Zn and Cd) migration through the compacted natural clay was influenced by the combined effects of the diffusion coefficient and the retardation factor. Additionally, we could also observe the change in retention mechanism for the metals with the change in pore water concentration.     

Characterization and Identification of the Sources of Chromium, Zinc, Lead, Cadmium, Nickel, Manganese and Iron in Pm10 Particulates at the Two Sites of Kolkata, India

Monitoring of ambient PM₁₀ (particulate matter which passes through a size selective impactor inlet with a 50% efficiency cut-off at 10 μm aerodynamic diameter) has been done at residential (Kasba) and industrial (Cossipore) sites of an urban region of Kolkata during November 2003 to November 2004. These sites were selected depending on the dominant anthropogenic activities. Metal constituents of atmospheric PM₁₀ deposited on glass fibre filter paper were estimated using Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrometer (ICP-AES). Chromium (Cr), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), manganese (Mn) and iron (Fe) are the seven toxic trace metals quantified from the measured PM₁₀ concentrations. The 24 h average concentrations of Cr, Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, Mn and Fe from ninety PM₁₀ particulate samples of Kolkata were found to be 6.9, 506.1, 79.1, 3.3, 7.4, 2.4 and 103.6 ng/m³, respectively. The 24 h average PM₁₀ concentration exceeded national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) as specified by central pollution control board, India at both residential (Kasba) and industrial (Cossipore) areas with mean concentration of 140.1 and 196.6 μg/m³, respectively. A simultaneous meteorology study was performed to assess the influence of air masses by wind speed, wind direction, rainfall, relative humidity and temperature. The measured toxic trace metals generally showed inverse relationship with wind speed, relative humidity and temperature. Factor analysis, a receptor modeling technique has been used for identification of the possible sources contributing to the PM₁₀. Varimax rotated factor analysis identified four possible sources of measured trace metals comprising solid waste dumping, vehicular traffic with the influence of road dust, road dust and soil dust at residential site (Kasba), while vehicular traffic with the influence of soil dust, road dust, galvanizing and electroplating industry, and tanning industry at industrial site (Cossipore).     

Sediment and Suspended Matter Lead Contamination in the Gulf of Kavala, Greece

Sediment and suspended particulate matter samples from 24 stations in the Gulf of Kavala have been examined for lead contamination. Grain size analysis and organic matter content were also performed. Total – anthropogenic sediment lead concentrations and enrichment factors at stations close to harbors and chemical industries were found higher (up to 209–135μg/g and 4.12 respectively), in relation to concentrations from the rest of the coastal zone. In the above areas, increased suspended particulate lead in the bottom of the water column was also recorded (up to 109μg/g). Total sediment lead concentrations composed of high natural Pb background increased with decreasing grain size, suggesting their association with the fine fractions of the sediments (31.1–66.0% mud presence) and the organic matter content (6–9% higher values). Overall, higher total lead concentrations in the sediments, determined by this work, appear to be significantly different from those reported for the Gulf of Kavala in previous studies and similar to those detected in other highly contaminated eastern Mediterranean coastal areas.     

Water Quality during Development and Apportionment of Pollution from Rivers in Tapeng Lagoon, Taiwan

This work investigated water samples collected from Tapeng Lagoon, Taiwan. Factor analysis was conducted to explain the characteristics and the variation in the quality of water during the disassembly of oyster frames and fishery boxes. The result shows that the most important latent factors in Tapeng Lagoon are the ocean factor, primary productivity factor, and the fishery pollution factor. Canonical discriminant analysis is applied to identify the source of pollution in neighboring rivers outside Tapeng Lagoon. The two constructed discriminant functions (CDFs) showed markedly contribution to all discriminant variables, and that total nitrogen, algae, dissolved oxygen and total phosphate, combined in the nutrient effect factor. The recognition capacities in these two CDFs were 95.6%, 4.4%, respectively. The water quality in the Kaoping river most strongly determined that in the Tapeng Lagoon the best is. And disassembling the oyster frames and fishery boxes improves the water quality markedly. However, environmental topographic conditions indicate that strengthening stream pollution prevention and to constructing another entrance to the ocean are the best approaches for improving the quality of water in Tapeng Lagoon, especially by reducing eutrophication. These approaches and results yield useful information concerning habitat recovery and water resource management.     

Cancer and Non-Cancer Health Risk from Eating Cassava Grown in Some Mining Communities in Ghana

Food crops such as cassava, cocoyam and other tuber crops grown in mining communities uptake toxic or hazardous chemicals such as arsenic, and cadmium, from the soil. Cassava is a stable food for Ghanaians. This study evaluated human health risk from eating cassava grown in some mining communities in Ghana such as Bogoso, Prestea, Tarkwa and Tamso, which are important mining towns in the Western Region of Ghana. The study evaluated cancer and non-cancer health effects from eating cassava grown in the study areas in accordance with US Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Assessment guidelines. The results of the study revealed the following: cancer health risk for Tamso, 0.098 (RME – Reasonable Maximum Exposure) and 0.082 (CTE – Central Tendency Exposure). This means that approximately 10 and 8 out of 100 resident adults are likely to suffer from cancer related cases by RME and CTE parameters respectively. For Prestea, we have 0.010 and 0.12, which also means that approximately 1 out of 100 and 10 resident adults out of 100 are also likely to suffer from cancer related diseases by RME and CTE parameters. The results of the study obtained were found to be above the acceptable cancer risk range of 1× 10⁻⁶ to 1× 10⁻⁴, i.e., 1 case of cancer out of 1 million or 100,000 people respectively.     

The Metallic Composition of Aerosols at Three Monitoring Sites in Korea During Winter 2002

In the present study, the distribution patterns of various metals were analyzed and compared using PM samples collected concurrently from three monitoring sites located in Korea (Seoul, Busan, and Jeju island) in December 2002. As these sites can represent metal pollution with different degrees of anthropogenic activities, their concentration levels were distinguished in a systematic manner in the order of Jeju, Busan, and Seoul. By comparing the present data sets with those measured previously from other locations in Korea and around the world, we attempted to diagnose the general status of elemental pollution on the Korean peninsula. Through an application of different statistical approaches, the major processes controlling elemental levels were assessed for each of the three study sites. The results indicated the importance of both crustal and anthropogenic sources in all sites with their relative roles varying significantly from each other. The results of the metal analysis data, when examined in relation to back trajectory analysis, confirmed that their concentration changes are affected quite sensitively with air mass movement patterns. The overall results of this study consistently indicated the contribution of a strong anthropogenic source area (e.g., China) to the observed metal concentration levels in the study area, but the strengths of such signals vary considerably across the Korean peninsula.     

矿工心理因素、工作压力反应和不安全行为关系研究

为研究在巨大工作压力下,矿工的心理因素与工作压力反应和不安全行为的关系,以问卷的形式调查陕西省2家具代表性煤矿的工人,分别以矿工的心理因素、工作压力反应和作业过程中的不安全行为作为外生变量、中介变量和内生变量,构建心理因素、压力反应和不安全行为的结构方程模型。通过对调研数据处理与分析,得出如下结论:本研究中的4项心理因素,性格因素、心理素质、注意力和工作态度显著影响不安全行为的发生;性格因素、心理素质和注意力对压力反应有显著影响;工作态度与煤矿工人的压力反应的关系不显著;性格因素、心理素质、注意力和工作态度通过影响矿工的压力反应,间接影响矿工的不安全行为。