土地利用规划中不确定性的识别和处理研究

首先概述不确定性概念及其产生、相关理论和研究进展,深刻地揭示由于在我国土地和用规划中长期以来忽视开展不确定性研究,导致规划指标偏离现实需求,频繁修改规划方案和违法用地现象不断发生,在此基础上,引入不确定性规划理念,重新审视不确定性在土地利用规划中的地位和作用,全面系统地阐述土地利用规划中不确定性的类型及其特性,具体表现及其识别和处理方法.研究结果表明,由于人们的知识所限,客观世界中普遍存在不确定性.不确定性孕育着规划的产生,规划是对未来不确定性的缓解和抵消.土地利用规划中长期以来忽视业已存在的不确定性,直接影响土地利用规划的科学性和可操作性.土地利用规划中最基本的不确定性是预测未来和为了适应未来而对现在进行调整的失误.对未来的无知所引发的不确定性,只能求助于不确定性科学,增强对未来的预测能力和控制能力,使不确定性的负面影响最小化.     

Implications of Conceptual Channel Representation on SWAT Streamflow and Sediment Modeling

Hydrologic modeling outputs are influenced by how a watershed system is represented. Channel routing is a typical example of the mathematical conceptualization of watershed landscape and processes in hydrologic modeling. We investigated the sensitivity of accuracy, equifinality, and uncertainty of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling to channel dimensions to demonstrate how a conceptual representation of a watershed system affects streamflow and sediment modeling. Results showed the amount of uncertainty and equifinality strongly responded to channel dimensions. On the other hand, the model performance did not significantly vary with the changes in the channel representation due to the degree of freedom allowed by the conceptual nature of hydrologic modeling in the parameter calibration. Such findings demonstrated good modeling performance statistics do not necessarily mean small output uncertainty, and partial improvements in the watershed representation may neither increase modeling accuracy nor reduce uncertainty. We also showed the equifinality and uncertainty of hydrologic modeling are case‐dependent rather than specific to models or regions, suggesting great caution should be used when attempting to transfer uncertainty analysis results to other modeling studies, especially for ungauged watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Costs and benefits of improving wild salmon passage in a regulated river

This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of a trade-off between salmon and hydropower production in the Ume/Vindel River, northern Sweden. A distinctive element of this analysis is that estimated changes in resource conditions are based on detailed river-specific data. A salmon population model was used to develop the scenario and a novel willingness to pay (WTP) question, which caters for uncertainty in a different manner, provided an interval estimate. Non-use values are the major contributors to the benefit (96–517 millions of Swedish kronor (MSEK)) of increasing the stock of wild salmon. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the opportunity costs in terms of lost electricity are typically higher than the estimated benefits.     

Proximity economics and environment: assessment and prospects

The use of the theoretical tools provided by proximity economics to address environmental questions, and the emergence of analyses revitalising the role of the spatial dimension in environmental problems, date from the late 1990s. This paper first aims to provide a review of the research conducted in this field and second to suggest some future research directions concerning the respective roles of geographical proximity and organised proximity in the production and management of environmental problems. First, it deals with the topic of ‘geographical proximity and land-use conflicts’, a topic that is currently the most researched in this field. This is followed by a discussion of the role of organised proximity in the regulation of environmental problems. The paper then explores the relation between the uncertainty associated with environmental issues and relations of organised proximity. Next it outlines a few possible research directions, focusing more particularly on the roles of geographical proximity as a mode of regulation of environmental problems, and on the possible role of organised proximity in their production. The concluding section draws an overview of the departures and extensions that have resulted from taking into account environmental issues in the paradigm of proximity economics.     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

Estimation of sampling uncertainty for determination of pesticide residues in plant commodities

In order to provide residue data for refining the estimated sampling uncertainty, a coordinated research program was initiated for performing field studies on residues in individual items of leafy vegetables, small and large crops. The trials were carried out in 13 countries with 3 small fruits, 5 large crops, 2 medium/large crops and 3 leafy vegetables. The 25 pesticide active ingredients applied represented the dicarboximide (3), organophosphorus (8), synthetic pyrethroids (5), phthalimides (2), organochlorine (1) and other types of pesticides (6). In addition, 11 supervised field trials were performed in grapes and lettuce by the pesticide manufacturers, and their results were provided for evaluation. The studies represented actual agriculture practice around the world, and provide reliable data for estimation of sampling uncertainty. Based on the 12346 residue data, the best estimate for the relative sampling uncertainty for composite samples, assuming sample size of 10 for small crops and leafy vegetables and 5 for large crops, with 95% confidence limits in brackets are: small commodities: 0.25 (0.20–0.29); Brassica leafy vegetables: 0.20 (0.16–0.24); large commodities: 0.33 (0.29–0.38).     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.     

环境监测用氮气中多组分VOCs标准物质的研制

介绍了采用称量法制备瓶装1μmol/mol氮气中42个组分挥发性有机物(VOCs)标准物质的研制方法。建立了选择离子模式,气相色谱-质谱联用的分析方法,对目标组分在气瓶中的长期稳定性进行了考察。所选择的42种目标组分完全满足中国环境保护标准《环境空气挥发性有机物的测定吸附管采样-热脱附/气相色谱-质谱法》(HJ 644—2013)和美国环保署《使用特殊处理的采样罐/气相色谱仪检测环境大气中的挥发性有机物》(EPA TO—14A)这2个方法标准中所规定的环境空气中挥发性有机有害成分的监测要求。将研制的气体标准物质与中国计量科学研究院(NIM)和英国国家物理实验室(NPL)分别进行了比对测试,取得了良好的比对结果与国际等效度。结果表明,1μmol/mol氮气中42种组分VOCs标准物质的有效期为一年,相对扩展不确定度为5.0%(包含因子k=2),并取得国家标准物质证书GBW(E)062231。     

Analysis of uncertainty consideration in environmental assessment: an empirical study of Canadian EA practice

Identifying and communicating uncertainty is core to effective environmental assessment (EA). This study evaluates the extent to which uncertainties are considered and addressed in Canadian EA practice. We reviewed the environmental protection plans, follow-up programs, and panel reports (where applicable) of 12 EAs between 1995 and 2012. The types of uncertainties and levels of disclosure varied greatly. When uncertainties were acknowledged, practitioners adopted five different approaches to address them. However, uncertainties were never discussed or addressed in depth. We found a lack of suitable terminology and consistency in how uncertainties are disclosed, reflecting the need for explicit guidance, and we present recommendations for improvement. Canadian Environmental Impact Statements are not as transparent with respect to uncertainties as they should be, and uncertainties in EA need to be better considered and communicated.