环境监测用5种氯代烯烃混合气体标准样品研制

介绍了1μmol/mol氮气中5种氯代烯气体标准样品的研制方法。这5种氯代烯包括氯乙烯、1,1-二氯乙烯、顺1,2-二氯乙烯、三氯乙烯、四氯乙烯,其中氯乙烯常温下为气态,其他4种为液态,并且沸点低,将这几种氯代烯制备成气体标准样品存在制备精度低、气液转换不完全等困难。经研究,采用2步称量法制备5种氯代烯气体标准样品,重复制备的相对标准偏差小于1.6%。建立了5种氯代烯标准气体瓶内均匀性的实验方法,并通过考察样品量值伴随样品压力的变化来评价样品的均匀性。结果显示,5种氯代烯标准气体是均匀的,最低使用压力为1 MPa。依照ISO 15000.3来考察样品的时间稳定性,样品有效期为12个月。相对扩展不确定度为3%(置信度为95%)。     

污染源排气自动监测氮氧化物的不确定度分析

使用烟气排放连续监测系统自动监测仪器测定污染源排气中氮氧化物,按照最新的《测量不确定度评定与表示》(JJF1059.1—2012)的要求,测量不确定度评定的要求,首次对其氮氧化物自动监测的不确定度进行分析,得出不确定度报告。     

中国国际贸易隐含碳文献比较研究

贸易中的隐含碳流动对中国的二氧化碳排放具有重要影响。从现有的文献来看,尽管出现了大量的针对中国贸易中隐含碳的相关研究,但由于数据及方法的不同,结果之间存在较大差异,很大程度上影响了研究结果的科学性和应用价值。本文对现有的中国国际贸易隐含碳文献进行了比较研究,结果发现:不同研究得出了相对一致的结论,但在隐含碳的具体数量上差异巨大。定性来看,中国是一个隐含碳净出口国,净出口量呈现出逐年增加的趋势。定量来看,1997-2007年,中国隐含碳出口量从3.1-8.8亿t增长到17.2-30.2亿t二氧化碳;隐含碳进口量从1.0-7.0亿t增长到5.8-16.5亿t二氧化碳;隐含碳净出口量从1.8-7.3亿t增长到11.4-22.6亿t二氧化碳;隐含碳净出口量占国内总排放量的比重由5%-20%增长到17%-30%。贸易中隐含碳核算结果的不确定性主要来自三个方面:核算方法产生的不确定性、数据融合产生的不确定性以及原始数据引入的不确定性。总体来看,多区域投入产出模型的研究结果相对稳定,可重复性较高;从数据精度和数据可获得性方面考虑,40个左右的部门分类可以取得较为理想的结果:把中国划分为多个区域研究国际贸易中的隐含碳在理论上更加可靠。国家气候变化对外谈判和国内减排目标的实现都需要对碳排放进行精确管理。在未来的研究中,应重视隐含碳核算的不确定性研究,逐步提高隐含碳核算的精度,更好地服务于国家的气候变化政策。     

基于ISO14067的长江上游某水电项目碳足迹分析

以长江上游某大型水电站为案例,根据国际标准化组织碳足迹量化标准(ISO14067)评价流程,对该水电站全生命周期(建设阶段,运行维护阶段,退役阶段)碳足迹进行估算,并着重考虑了蓄水前后水库温室气体通量差异。研究以碳足迹系数和能源回收率作为指标进行评价,结果表明生命周期碳足迹为5 417.0万t CO_(2eq),碳足迹系数为7.0~13.1 g CO_(2eq)/kW·h,中位值为9.4 g CO_(2eq)/kW·h,该水电站项目能源回收率达236.4。与各种能源电站以及国内外同类型水电站相比较,该水电站碳足迹明显较低,且能源回收率显著较高,说明以该水电站为代表的我国西南水电具有显著的优质性,大力开发水电能有效节能减排,明确了生命周期评价方法对于水电站碳足迹评估的适用性。     

Uncertainty in Agricultural CH<Subscript>4</Subscript> AND N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O Emissions from Finland – Possibilities to Increase Accuracy in Emission Estimates

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol under it, industrial countries have to estimate their greenhouse gas emissions annually, and assess the uncertainties in these estimates. In Finland, agricultural methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N_2O) emissions represent 7% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and globally the share is much higher. Agriculture is one of the most uncertain emission categories (representing over 20% of greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty in Finland), due to both high natural variability of the emission sources and poor knowledge of the emission-generating processes. In this paper, we present an uncertainty estimate of agricultural CH₄ and N₂O emissions from Finland in 2002. Uncertainties were estimated based on measurement data, literature and expert judgement, and total uncertainty in agriculture was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. According to the calculations, agricultural CH₄ and N₂O emissions from Finland were 3.7 to 7.8 Tg carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalents, 5.4 Tg being the mean value.Estimates of CH₄ emissions are more reliable than those of N₂O. N₂O from agricultural soils was the most uncertain emission category, and the uncertainty was not reduced by using available national measurement data of N₂O fluxes. Sensitivity study revealed that the uncertainty in total agricultural inventory could be 7% points lower, if more accurate emission estimation methods were used, including 1) improved data collection in area estimates of organic soils, 2) climate-specific methods for N₂O from agricultural soils as already presented in literature, and 3) more detailed CH₄ estimation methods for enteric fermentation which can be achieved by investigating national circumstances and digestible systems of animals in more detail.     

测量不确定度在空气自动监测中的应用

根据测量原理建立数学模型，分析各种不确定分量的来源，评定标准不确定度，确定合成不确定度和扩展不确定度。通过不确定影响分量的分析，找出最大不确定分量，重点控制其分量，可保证测量的准确性和精度，也可通过重新评估显著性不确定分量，找出方法存在的不足和问题，提出控制不确定分量的步骤和方法，改善测量方法和手段提高测量准确性和精度。     

Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅａｃｃｉｄｅｎｔａｌｒｉｓｋａｓｓｅｓｓｍｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｅｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｓｉｓａｆｒｏｎｔｉｅｒｓｃｉｅｎｃｅａｎｄｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｙｒｅｆｅｒｒｅｄｔｏｂｏｔｈｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｓｃｉｅｎｃｅａｎｄｓａｆｅｔｙｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｙ .Ｉｎｒｅｃｅｎｔｙｅａｒｓｍａｎｙｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｗｏｒｋｅｒｓｉｎｔｈｉｓｆｉｅｌｄｈａｖｅｄｏｎｅｉｔ.Ｔｈｅａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌａｃｃｉｄｅｎｔｓｍａｉｎｌｙｉｎｃｌｕｄｅｄｔｈａｔｔｈｅｌｅａｋａｇｅ…     

离子选择电极分析法测定标样中氟化物的不确定度评定

通过对离子选择电极法测定标样中氟化物的过程研究，分析了该方法测量不确定度的来源，给出了相对不确定度分量，得出测量扩展不确定度的结果。     

Probabilistic prediction of exposures to arsenic contaminated residential soil

Probabilistic modelling using Monte Carlo simulation has been proposed as a more scientifically valid method of estimating soil contaminant exposures than conservative deterministic methods currently used by regulatory agencies. A retrospective application of probabilistic modelling to an exposure scenario involving arsenic-contaminated residential soil near the former ASARCO smelter near Tacoma, Washington is presented. The population of interest is children, aged 2–6 years, living within one-half mile (0.3 km) of the smelter site. Models that predict urinary arsenic levels based on unintentional soil ingestion and inhalation exposure pathways are used. Distributions of exposure variables are based on site-specific data and previous exposure studies. Simulated urinary arsenic levels are compared with data from two biomonitoring studies performed during the late 1980s. Arsenic distributions produced by simulation and biomonitoring are significantly different, and likely contributors to this difference are discussed. However the probabilistic model provides closer estimations of urinary arsenic levels than conservative deterministic models similar to those used by regulatory agencies, and provides useful information regarding parameter uncertainty. Soil ingestion rate was a driving variable in the probabilistic models. Further quantification of soil ingestion rates is warranted.     

海洋排放二甲基硫通量的研究进展

综述国内外二甲基硫（DMS）海气通量的研究进展，总结了DMS海气通量的各种估算方法。重点讨论滞膜模型及其传输速率常数的确定，进而分析DMS海气通量估算中存在的不确定性。